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Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

BassAle said:
I _just_ looked at the now-cast and it still has SC light pink at 49.5% chance of Clinton victory and 50.4% chance of Trump Victory.
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Yep, that's where we are. Earlier today it looked like NowCast had crested at 91.3 and was starting to erode, but now it's up to 95.3. Along with SC, MO is at 46.3 and GA has moved out of the leaners and is up to 73.7.

It should be noted that after MO the next domino would be TX, currently at 30.6. TX was last won by the Democrats in 1976.

If TX were to fall, the most populous red state would be Indiana.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

"I hear that Donald Trump is watching the Olympics tonight. He's seeing how high the Mexican pole vaulters go." - Gov. Gary Johnson

Nice work Gary :)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

More People Who Wont Vote for Drumpf

These arent just random staffers or retiring Congressmen...these are National Security Officials who worked under Presidents from both parties. What they say is ****ing...

And before someone talks about how Hillary sucks too...notice none of these people, people who worked in Foreign Affairs and The State Department who had daily contact with her are coming out and condemning her like they are for Drumpf. So while some of you are going to argue about whether her emails were criminal or just negligent...at least she is someone who these people will work with.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Handyman said:
More People Who Wont Vote for Drumpf

These arent just random staffers or retiring Congressmen...these are National Security Officials who worked under Presidents from both parties. What they say is ****ing...
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Chertoff. Holy sh-t. That guy is a full blown Satanic demon (true story: I have met him, and I distinctly smelled the sulfur). Once you've lost Haborym you've really cut into the Republican base.

Three or four of those guys are bonafide war criminals, and they're basically saying "aw hell to the no; this guy scares me."
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

bronconick said:
Here's a crazy one. The "Now Cast" has the entire East coat in blue.

Yes, including South Carolina.
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As noted by a couple of earlier posts, SC was still red when checked, if ever so slightly. But now that has changed as 538.com's Now-cast has Clinton's chance on the good side of 50-50, at 51.8.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Well Collins finally got off the fence and said she cannot support Trump and will not vote for him. No endorsement of Hillary though.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

BassAle said:
Well Collins finally got off the fence and said she cannot support Trump and will not vote for him. No endorsement of Hillary though.
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She unloaded on Cinnamon Hitler.

My conclusion about Mr. Trump’s unsuitability for office is based on his disregard for the precept of treating others with respect, an idea that should transcend politics. Instead, he opts to mock the vulnerable and inflame prejudices by attacking ethnic and religious minorities. Three incidents in particular have led me to the inescapable conclusion that Mr. Trump lacks the temperament, self-discipline and judgment required to be president.

The first was his mocking of a reporter with disabilities, a shocking display that did not receive the scrutiny it deserved. I kept expecting Mr. Trump to apologize, at least privately, but he did not, instead denying that he had done what seemed undeniable to anyone who watched the video. At the time, I hoped that this was a terrible lapse, not a pattern of abuse.

The second was Mr. Trump’s repeated insistence that Gonzalo Curiel, a federal judge born and raised in Indiana, could not rule fairly in a case involving Trump University because of his Mexican heritage. For Mr. Trump to insist that Judge Curiel would be biased because of his ethnicity demonstrated a profound lack of respect not only for the judge but also for our constitutional separation of powers, the very foundation of our form of government. Again, I waited in vain for Mr. Trump to retract his words.

Third was Donald Trump’s criticism of the grieving parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in Iraq. It is inconceivable that anyone, much less a presidential candidate, would attack two Gold Star parents. Rather than honoring their sacrifice and recognizing their pain, Mr. Trump disparaged the religion of the family of an American hero. And once again, he proved incapable of apologizing, of saying he was wrong.
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tl; dr: independent of all policy or ideological considerations, Trump is a P. O. S.

Can't argue with that.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

538 NowCast now has a solid Atlantic coast for Hillary. SC joins GA and AZ. Hillary now has a sufficient number of EV in darkest blue to win. VA, which would put her over, is 96%.

Next up: MO (47%) and then TX (32%).

FFS, MS (27%) would be next. If your principal electoral strategy is virulent racism and you're in danger of losing MS, you should consider another line of work.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Good for Collins for finally ditching the stupid wait and see attitude that too many Goopers think is going to save them. I don't expect sitting GOP Congresscritters to endorse Hillary. However you can say you will not under no circumstances vote for the man.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Kepler said:
538 NowCast now has a solid Atlantic coast for Hillary. SC joins GA and AZ. Hillary now has a sufficient number of EV in darkest blue to win. VA, which would put her over, is 96%.

Next up: MO (47%) and then TX (32%).

FFS, MS (27%) would be next. If your principle electoral strategy is virulent racism and you're in danger of losing MS, you should consider another line of work.
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Personally I think it will be pretty funny if he goes 0-50. I'm not sure how his ego will handle that.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Actually the funniest part of him getting crushed is the GOP will come back with "he wasn't conservative enough" as an excuse.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

ScoobyDoo said:
Actually the funniest part of him getting crushed is the GOP will come back with "he wasn't conservative enough" as an excuse.
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Agreed, because it would delay the GOP's return to sanity for another four years. Four more years of demographic drift and we could be looking at a true landslide in 2020. As the GOP shrinks, the drive to purity within the party will only be greater, especially because the Republicans are no longer being driven by rationality. The emotional drivers of current US conservatism will only become more dire.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

SJHovey said:
Personally I think it will be pretty funny if he goes 0-50. I'm not sure how his ego will handle that.
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That would be wonderful, but I don't see how it could happen. NowCast has NE-3 as 97% Trump, so there's one EV right there. Nine states are completely outside the MoE for Trump: LA, TN, KY, NE, AL, ID, WV, OK, WY. This is as close as we are going to get to the thought experiment of running a doorkob as (R) in those states and still winning.
 
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