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Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Rover said:
Agreed on not getting too overconfident. However, if Hillary was dumb enough to put criminal acts into an e-mail and send it off to someone, one would think she'd already been in the slammer especially since there's been consistent, well funded effort for the last 25 years to do just that.

I'd say Trump would have to kick @ ss during the debates to change the trajectory of the race.
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The more likely scenario to derail Hillary would be actually finding a smoking gun to something from the past. But all of those have been buried deep away with all the bodies. ;) :D

(Lighten up people, it was a joke.)

As far as debates, I'll put big money on Trump losing it and going all "YUUUGEmuslimCrookedLiar" before I'd put a dime on him winning. And when Trump gets riled up he's not telegenic (see: Kennedy/Nixon television debates).

A wild card in this: If Hillary has one of those coughing fits on live television she's going to have to explain what's going on with that.
 
The Sicatoka said:
July jobs: +255,000.
However, 94,333,000 are not in the labor force. (That's a near record number.)

I'd say being muted about the first number (which historically is far from impressive) saves having the other side of the aisle rattle the talisman at the second number.
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Shouldn't that number be increasing due to automation and whatnot?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Rover said:
I don't expect all of them to ditch him. I find it inexplicable that Susan Collins or John McCain hasn't expressly come out against him. If there are sooooo many sane moderates in the GOP, when are they going to step up?
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Despite her lip service about being her own person, when push comes to shove, Collins toes the party line. Always has, always will. Her actions over the past ten years or so shows this.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
That so much can change in a week means that Hillary could implode at any moment as well.

Listen, Hillary may be competent enough for office in ways Trump never will be, so it would probably require her to get arrested before she tanks as badly as Trump has this week. But let's not take for granted that she's always going to have much else going for her. The DNC stuff and the e-mail scandal aren't nearly the big deals they're made out to be by the knuckledragging echo chamber, but it only takes one or two new discoveries for that not to be true anymore. In other words: she's maybe one or two closeted skeletons away from being on Nixon levels of impropriety.

IF something were to come to light, Trump might be able to recover enough to make a run of this. It's a big if, but I won't dismiss it until we get closer to November.
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I remember when CNN announced Florida for the Democratic...then I knew Gore won.

Kepler said:
Minnesota speaks.

It's going to be hard to argue the GOP is the party of white middle America if white middle America splits.
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Had to know that would get a few reads.

Trump came in third in Minnesota so you knew he'd not a get a sniff going forward. But I think Weber could be on to something there. Trump may be assuming he's going to lose (or really deep down didn't want the job to begin with) and as Weber says 'if he does lose, and he decides to blame the Republican establishment for doing the “rigging,” Trump’s large, loyal, angry following is very likely to blame the Republicans.' It might be a serious set up to A) get Trump out B) hammer the GOP.

As this CNN article mentions, conservative outsider Kansas Rep. Tim Huelskamp just lost and is blaming establishment GOP. Why not Trump?

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/04/politics/donald-trump-2016-election-gop-civil-war/
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Nobody really gives a rat's arse about the labor force participation rate unless you're 1) an economist, or 2) a member of the party out of power trying to dampen a good jobs report. :D

The two largest generations out there are either retiring (Boomers) or in school (Millennials). Small wonder then the participation rate is at 30+ year lows...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Millenials are over 10 years out of college by the oldest estimates of the transition from Gen X

So, I would say most of them are not in college.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

538 now has polls plus / polls only / now as 75/82/92.

Mainers will appreciate this.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I'm not sure I see your point. Aren't people that young not considered part of the labor force?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Kepler said:
On a Friday night?
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Yeah that way come Monday people will forget he sold out. He is flipping broke and my guess is the Leadership told him to play nice or they will make sure the donors stay away.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Plus, Millenials are considered by some to have started around 1982. I don't know if we've started to transition to a new generation yet. We probably won't know for another 10-15 years. Maybe less I suppose.

So where I was going with that was we have 14 years of Millenials out in the labor force and only four years of them in college and who knows how many younger will be considered part of this named generation. Are those born in 2006 really Millenials by the original definition of a millenial? Those who came of age during the transition from the the 1900s to the 2000s.


Edit: wait, crap. Did I do that math right?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Handyman said:
Yeah that way come Monday people will forget he sold out. He is flipping broke and my guess is the Leadership told him to play nice or they will make sure the donors stay away.
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If I were a betting man, I'd say this is probably correct. It's also why we're not seeing his tax returns or other financial specifics - too many shady & complex debt-structuring deals that will easily make him out to be the crook instead of Shrill.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

dxmnkd316 said:
I'm not sure I see your point. Aren't people that young not considered part of the labor force?
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The traditional labor force figures participation rates use values that begin at 16yo through to the age of full Social Security Retirement benefits age.

I've not checked recently, but about a year to 18 months ago the high school kids were killing the labor force participation rate because the unemployment rate was so high for that group. So we had low participation rates mixed with high unemployment rates, making for a very uninspired group of kids. It even stretched into early college-aged people, too.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

The Sicatoka said:
July jobs: +255,000.
However, 94,333,000 are not in the labor force. (That's a near record number.)
Click to expand...

The labor force participation rate has averaged 63% from 1950 until 2016. Do you want to guess the current rate? 62.8%. Did you intentionally leave that part of it out?
 
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