Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Shrill as of this morning is up to 77.7 percent at 538 in the polls-only, and a scorching 91.6% (!) in the NowCast.

In the NowCast: AZ is 50/50. GA is 49/51. FL and OH are 83% chance for Hillary; PA is 89%. Roughly one third of trials have Clinton breaking 400 EV (not done since 1988).

RCP has Clinton +6, having just rolled in the Fox poll with Hillary +10. That is the only poll where all sampling was done after the DNC concluded, so we are getting into KHAN!!! In 3 of their 8 aggregated polls Hillary is above the fated 50% mark, and in another she's at 49.

Since Trump is effectively his own campaign manager, he should consider firing himself.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

In the NowCast: AZ is 50/50. GA is 49/51. FL and OH are 83% chance for Hillary; PA is 89%. Roughly one third of trials have Clinton breaking 400 EV (not done since 1988).

RCP has Clinton +6, having just rolled in the Fox poll with Hillary +10. That is the only poll where all sampling was done after the DNC concluded, so we are getting into KHAN!!! In 3 of their 8 aggregated polls Hillary is above the fated 50% mark, and in another she's at 49.

Since Trump is effectively his own campaign manager, he should consider firing himself.

NH has also moved notably bluer, as SonofSouthie's post attests to.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

So you're sayin' there's a chance.

within the GOP rules, it’s not hard to replace Trump if he drops out, and it’s not impossible to kick him off the ticket

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Two fun stories popping up today:
- Trump claims to have seen video taken by Iranian military of money being offloaded off of a plane, and describes it in detail. There is no such known public video. Either he's making up what he saw in the video, or he's repeating classified information he saw in a security briefing.
- Melania claims she would go back to Slovenia every few months to get stamps for her visa, because she cared so deeply about following our immigration rules. That kind of visa, though, would be a temporary visa, where should be not be allowed to work, which includes modeling, so either she made up the story about the stamps or she was illegally working with the wrong kind of visa (and taking jobs away from American models).

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

A great piece with a lot of great lines, among which this still stands out as piquant:

The most likely answer for this confusion is that everybody is lying in some capacity and also almost nobody knows what they’re talking about,

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

So you're sayin' there's a chance.

On CBS This Morning Paul Manafort let out a Freudian slip saying "I support [Paul Ryan] as Speaker, and I know after this week, I'll be supporting him as a candidate for President too"

 

[Jimjamesak]

Two fun stories popping up today:
- Trump claims to have seen video taken by Iranian military of money being offloaded off of a plane, and describes it in detail. There is no such known public video. Either he's making up what he saw in the video, or he's repeating classified information he saw in a security briefing.
- Melania claims she would go back to Slovenia every few months to get stamps for her visa, because she cared so deeply about following our immigration rules. That kind of visa, though, would be a temporary visa, where should be not be allowed to work, which includes modeling, so either she made up the story about the stamps or she was illegally working with the wrong kind of visa (and taking jobs away from American models).

Good Foxtrot Alpha article on the Iran subject.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

- Trump claims to have seen video taken by Iranian military of money being offloaded off of a plane, and describes it in detail. There is no such known public video. Either he's making up what he saw in the video, or he's repeating classified information he saw in a security briefing.

It was Fox news b-roll.

So where did Trump concoct such a tale? After all, the campaign has said he has yet to receive daily classified briefings afforded to presidential candidates.

Well, it turns out he saw it on TV. Trump spokesperson Hope Hicks admitted to the Washington Post that footage Trump was referring to was not, in fact, top secret. It was b-roll from a Fox News segment.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Good Foxtrot Alpha article on the Iran subject.

Michael Steele talked about this. He was actually part of the negotiating team (weird fact: there is a standing Congressional negotiating team that has been unspooling the financial consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution that is still in existence. Some lawyer or diplomat has probably spent her entire career, from fresh college grad to gold watch retiree, on that one event.) and he blasted the story as complete nonsense.

Steele is actually getting saltier and saltier about Trump in particular and the Republican Party in general. He's taking it personally that they took his colicky baby and gave it Plague-flavored AIDS.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

It was Fox news b-roll.

Ah. Man, for a guy who doesn't care for Carly Fiorina, he sure likes going to the same non-existent video store as her.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Ah. Man, for a guy who doesn't care for Carly Fiorina, he sure likes going to the same non-existent video store as her.

It's on the street where he saw thousands of Arab-Americans celebrating 9-11.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Individual polls (YMMV), but:

Georgia: tied.

Arizona: Clinton ahead.

Neither poll sampled past 8/1, so it might get worse.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Johnson and Weld presented themselves very well last night. It was great to see the contrast as compared to all of the vitriolic nonsense we see from the two major parties. They gave thoughtful, truthful and logical answers. Seems like common sense positions to me.

Would love to see them in the debates, to win the debates they would just have to give a few decent measured responses then step back and duck under the torpedoes the other two knuckleheads throw at each other.

The think that bothers me about the Libritarians is the whole de-regulation of everything stance.

I don't see that as a good idea at all.

Before I go into this- I'm not saying that all regulation is good, or that we should never take a good look at regulations. Uuber vs. taxis is a good example- *perhaps* some of the taxi laws need to be re-looked at. But I don't think all of them should go away.

Never have people or industry really been able to "self regulate" anything. Ever. From worker abuses to environmental abuses to economic abuses to customer abuses- history has consistently shown that money and greed will always win over doing the right thing. Always.

Then sources of regulation comes from something or someone being abused in a bad way. So one MUST understand why a regulation is in place before you can actually get rid of it. Some have used the recent economic problems which can be sourced to de-regulation of Great Depression economic laws as good examples.

The statement "regulations are bad for business" is also a gross oversimplification. Everyone likes to quite Ayn Rand her book Atlas Shrugged as some kind of bible, where over regulation will lead to people giving up and killing all industry. When reality is very much different. Again, I'm not saying all regulations are not bad for business. But it's pretty easy to show that well thought out regulations have allowed industries to really flourish, and even to the point of adding some really high paying jobs JUST to meet regulations. All the while, the state of the art allows the products to be sill reasonably priced and MORE useful to the consumer.

I'm in one of those industries, and my specific job is to just find ways to meet the regulations. There are 100's of people like me in this company- all with very good paying jobs, and you still buy the product. It's gotten to to the point that we can use the regulations to gain a competitive advantage- so it ends up winning for everyone.

Blindly saying that regulations are bad may seem logical based on some of the ideas that is spouted, but reality doesn't reflect this "common sense."

(and a side rant, I hate the touting of "common sense" solutions. Rarely are problems and solutions that obvious- if they were, they would not be problems)

 

[Jimjamesak]

The think that bothers me about the Libritarians is the whole de-regulation of everything stance.

I don't see that as a good idea at all.

Before I go into this- I'm not saying that all regulation is good, or that we should never take a good look at regulations. Uuber vs. taxis is a good example- *perhaps* some of the taxi laws need to be re-looked at. But I don't think all of them should go away.

Never have people or industry really been able to "self regulate" anything. Ever. From worker abuses to environmental abuses to economic abuses to customer abuses- history has consistently shown that money and greed will always win over doing the right thing. Always.

Then sources of regulation comes from something or someone being abused in a bad way. So one MUST understand why a regulation is in place before you can actually get rid of it. Some have used the recent economic problems which can be sourced to de-regulation of Great Depression economic laws as good examples.

The statement "regulations are bad for business" is also a gross oversimplification. Everyone likes to quite Ayn Rand her book Atlas Shrugged as some kind of bible, where over regulation will lead to people giving up and killing all industry. When reality is very much different. Again, I'm not saying all regulations are not bad for business. But it's pretty easy to show that well thought out regulations have allowed industries to really flourish, and even to the point of adding some really high paying jobs JUST to meet regulations. All the while, the state of the art allows the products to be sill reasonably priced and MORE useful to the consumer.

I'm in one of those industries, and my specific job is to just find ways to meet the regulations. There are 100's of people like me in this company- all with very good paying jobs, and you still buy the product. It's gotten to to the point that we can use the regulations to gain a competitive advantage- so it ends up winning for everyone.

Blindly saying that regulations are bad may seem logical based on some of the ideas that is spouted, but reality doesn't reflect this "common sense."

(and a side rant, I hate the touting of "common sense" solutions. Rarely are problems and solutions that obvious- if they were, they would not be problems)

I work a job that deals with a lot of Government regulations the two things I've learn are: 1) The vast majority of them are there for a reason and it's a good reason at that. 2) A lot of companies like having a lot of the regulations in place because it forces the *ty companies to follow and prevents those companies from doing stuff that makes the whole industry look bad (which is what Libertarians usually cry about).

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Michael Steele talked about this. He was actually part of the negotiating team (weird fact: there is a standing Congressional negotiating team that has been unspooling the financial consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution that is still in existence. Some lawyer or diplomat has probably spent her entire career, from fresh college grad to gold watch retiree, on that one event.) and he blasted the story as complete nonsense.

Yes, there's a US-Iran Claims Tribunal at The Hague started by Reagan in 1981(though as we've learned this past week, that doesn't necessarily absolve it from being Obama's fault) that is still operating. In this particular claim, Iran was asking for $10 billion in arbitration for the US not paying the debt, and while I highly doubt they would have gotten all of that, best case scenario seems like the US paying back what they owed plus whatever additional interest they accrued in dragging this thing out, with the possibility of paying much more. If they were able to use that money as an additional negotiating chip, all the better.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Individual polls (YMMV), but:

Georgia: tied.

Arizona: Clinton ahead.

Neither poll sampled past 8/1, so it might get worse.

And further good polls in the swings: FL +6/+4, PA +11, MI +9.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Yes, there's a US-Iran Claims Tribunal at The Hague started by Reagan in 1981(though as we've learned this past week, that doesn't necessarily absolve it from being Obama's fault) that is still operating. In this particular claim, Iran was asking for $10 billion in arbitration for the US not paying the debt, and while I highly doubt they would have gotten all of that, best case scenario seems like the US paying back what they owed plus whatever additional interest they accrued in dragging this thing out, with the possibility of paying much more. If they were able to use that money as an additional negotiating chip, all the better.

Yes. Assuming that the money was specifically in exchange for the prisoners (which isn't a given as far as I know), The Obama administration essentially traded money we owed Iran anyway for prisoners. Far from deserving a condemnation, it sounds to me like the administration deserves a "hey, nicely done".

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Yes. Assuming that the money was specifically in exchange for the prisoners (which isn't a given as far as I know), The Obama administration essentially traded money we owed Iran anyway for prisoners. Far from deserving a condemnation, it sounds to me like the administration deserves a "hey, nicely done".

He sounds like some who can make "the best deals"!

 

[alfablue]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I work a job that deals with a lot of Government regulations the two things I've learn are: 1) The vast majority of them are there for a reason and it's a good reason at that. 2) A lot of companies like having a lot of the regulations in place because it forces the *ty companies to follow and prevents those companies from doing stuff that makes the whole industry look bad (which is what Libertarians usually cry about).

Whew- I'm glad I'm not the only one.

It's interesting to work with people who seem to despise all government regulations, but never seem to see that their entire means of income revolve singularly around that regulation.

Even more odd when people disagree with the science behind the regulation (Global Warming) but they are ONLY working on solutions for it. So if they disagree, why are they working to fix it?

The ones I really don't trust are the very vocal anti-government people working on government sponsored projects. Never sure if I can trust their work....

As for the bad companies- it's interesting to see that there tend to be very few of them, but their "example" makes people assume that we are all doing that. When, in fact, most are quite the opposite, and work hard to save money meeting the regulation (to the point of allowing the regulation to be pressed even farther). Odd how people assume such corruption.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

The think that bothers me about the Libritarians is the whole de-regulation of everything stance.

I don't see that as a good idea at all.

Before I go into this- I'm not saying that all regulation is good, or that we should never take a good look at regulations. Uuber vs. taxis is a good example- *perhaps* some of the taxi laws need to be re-looked at. But I don't think all of them should go away.

Never have people or industry really been able to "self regulate" anything. Ever. From worker abuses to environmental abuses to economic abuses to customer abuses- history has consistently shown that money and greed will always win over doing the right thing. Always.

Then sources of regulation comes from something or someone being abused in a bad way. So one MUST understand why a regulation is in place before you can actually get rid of it. Some have used the recent economic problems which can be sourced to de-regulation of Great Depression economic laws as good examples.

The statement "regulations are bad for business" is also a gross oversimplification. Everyone likes to quite Ayn Rand her book Atlas Shrugged as some kind of bible, where over regulation will lead to people giving up and killing all industry. When reality is very much different. Again, I'm not saying all regulations are not bad for business. But it's pretty easy to show that well thought out regulations have allowed industries to really flourish, and even to the point of adding some really high paying jobs JUST to meet regulations. All the while, the state of the art allows the products to be sill reasonably priced and MORE useful to the consumer.

I'm in one of those industries, and my specific job is to just find ways to meet the regulations. There are 100's of people like me in this company- all with very good paying jobs, and you still buy the product. It's gotten to to the point that we can use the regulations to gain a competitive advantage- so it ends up winning for everyone.

Blindly saying that regulations are bad may seem logical based on some of the ideas that is spouted, but reality doesn't reflect this "common sense."

(and a side rant, I hate the touting of "common sense" solutions. Rarely are problems and solutions that obvious- if they were, they would not be problems)

The reason Libertarians are gaining ground with this, though, is that regulation can be just as corrupt. Take a look at the insanity surrounding the Toilet Seat Administration, or how you can lobby to ban a drug that actually works because it'll eat into the profits of the pharmas' "treatments" that cost ten times as much and don't do a gosh darn thing. I'm sure some form of equilibrium will be met eventually, though.