Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The question is, what catastrophe will you be saying "I told you so" about? Are all harms the same in that they all give you that opportunity?

Risk = (Probability of event) x (Severity of event). Severity is itself a function of numerous probabilities of contingent events and their severities.

IMO, the worst case contingent events under Trump overwhelm the whole calculation, much in the way "go to the fridge for a coke" vs "disable all the fire alarms in your home" is an obvious choice of relative risk.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

ditto

I'm not only voting for Hillary, but I'm voting for the Democratic platform -- which Bernie has been able to influence. All the Bernie or Bust people need to realize that it's a process and Bernie has pushed the conversation much farther to the left and I'm grateful that he ran on these issues. They can do a lot more good by trying to influence the Democratic party rather than abandoning it when they didn't get their way.

It comes down to which candidate (and which party) I trust to make court appointments, fill cabinet positions, etc. Gary Johnson would be far far FAR preferable to Trump but 1) he isn't going to win, and 2) I disagree with him deeply on several important issues.

Precisely so.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I could be wrong, but I do not get the impression that joecct is voting for Trump.

In fact I don't know if there is a single regular poster on the cafe planning to vote for Trump. They are anti-Hillary but they seem to be either 'Johnson Curious' or 'Sit This Stinker Out,' both of which I get.

It's not that hard to imagine Trump running as a Democrat (after all, he is about Trump and nothing else, and he was a Democrat for his whole life right up until he got the idea to start running these campaigns to sell his books). If this election had been Trump (D) v Jeb! (R), I would have either voted Libertarian, Green or sat it out. So I completely understand where conservatives are coming from. Their criticism of Hillary may be either right or wrong on the merits, but in neither instance does it signal they intend to vote for the Apricot Authoritarian.

Its not about whether joe is voting for Drumpf (though I think if push came to shove he would) but his posts are straight from the Echo Chamber you so lovingly mock. Half the time he doesnt even change the wording it just matches up completely with the dreck in the average newsfeed on Facebook. (with an added Religiosity)

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I think the Dem convention is definitely making clear the choice in front of you. Yes there's always going to be a handful of sanctimonious individuals who think voting 3rd party makes them a martyr or some similar nonsense. But, everyone else is coming around.

On that note, I haven't had to admit I was wrong since....well....hmmm....anyway, I was concerned Sanders himself was going to go Bernie or Bust. I'm happy to say I was wrong about that and he turned out to be a stand up guy who did the right thing at the right time. You can't quibble over disputes in the heat of the campaign if the candidates unite after the contest is over. I'm more than happy to have Hillary win the present and Bernie win the future if that's how it shakes out.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

So who is everyone voting for? I'm sure we have a pretty good idea on who will vote for who anyway.

Unless something changes my mind, I will vote for Johnson/Weld.

Johnson unless Minnesota is in play. (it isnt)

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Actually, you don't. If you pick one then you win if the other one wins, because then you can say "I voted against him/her." But by not voting you're giving up any chance to have helped, so you don't get to say squat.

You are smarter than that...you know that it doesnt work that way. If he votes 3rd party he gets blamed for whoever wins (see everyone blaming Nader for Al Gore losing ignoring the actual facts of that election) and if he votes "lesser of two evils" he has sold out his beliefs making him no better than the average voter.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Actually, you don't. If you pick one then you win if the other one wins, because then you can say "I voted against him/her." But by not voting you're giving up any chance to have helped, so you don't get to say squat.

Wrong. If I vote for HRC, a third party candidate or don't vote at all, it doesn't change the number of votes Trump got if he wins. But if I vote for HRC (to vote against Trump, whatever that means) and she wins, then I am stuck as a responsible party for putting her in office.

The question is, what catastrophe will you be saying "I told you so" about? Are all harms the same in that they all give you that opportunity?

I don't complain about small things. You'd be hard pressed to find posts of mine on this board lamenting specific actions or events that have occurred during Obama's term, or Bush before him.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Yes there's always going to be a handful of sanctimonious individuals who think voting 3rd party makes them a martyr or some similar nonsense.

This is the kind of comment a poster should avoid. It comes across as arrogant and patronizing and my god this is me noticing that. Plus, it's just wrong. Painting anyone who doesn't do exactly what you want them to do as an idiot or a narcissist is a lame rhetorical trick. For every half asleep reader you might cajole you send a hundred potentially convincable people running in the opposite direction aghast at your presumption.

I'm a friend, Rover. I'm telling you -- it's not a good look or a smart tactic.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

You are smarter than that...you know that it doesnt work that way. If he votes 3rd party he gets blamed for whoever wins (see everyone blaming Nader for Al Gore losing ignoring the actual facts of that election) and if he votes "lesser of two evils" he has sold out his beliefs making him no better than the average voter.

I have always thought that it's complete B.S. for people to blame Nader for Al Gore's loss. It presumes that a Nader vote would have been for Gore. What if they had voted for Bush, or not voted at all?

I believe your vote is your voice in the running of this country. It sickens me to think that there might not be a single person on the ballot that I can support. Out of all of the talented people in this country, we can't find one that I feel comfortable handing over the presidency to? That sucks.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

You may be dead accurate, joe, but did the Benghazi investigation conclude that she should have or could have taken steps than night/day that would have prevented the deaths? They certainly spent enough time and money searching for such a conclusion.

Something else to consider about the R's and their claims against Hillary.

So, in theory, Hillary's mistakes cost 4 American lives.

Bush told us that Iraq had WMD's. That was a pretty big lie, as it turns out, too. How many American lives were sacrificed to find out that mistake, let along massive cost to the deficit? And George was re-elected.

Relative to that, Hillary's issue are a minor drop in the bucket.

Everything is relative.

 

[unofan]

You are smarter than that...you know that it doesnt work that way. If he votes 3rd party he gets blamed for whoever wins (see everyone blaming Nader for Al Gore losing ignoring the actual facts of that election) and if he votes "lesser of two evils" he has sold out his beliefs making him no better than the average voter.

Voting as practiced in the US is simply game theory taken to one of its highest levels. One person's selling out is another's rational pragmatism, and vice versa, one person's voting their conscience is another's being an idiot.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

This is the kind of comment a poster should avoid. It comes across as arrogant and patronizing and my god this is me noticing that. Plus, it's just wrong. Painting anyone who doesn't do exactly what you want them to do as an idiot or a narcissist is a lame rhetorical trick. For every half asleep reader you might cajole you send a hundred potentially convincable people running in the opposite direction aghast at your presumption.

I'm a friend, Rover. I'm telling you -- it's not a good look or a smart tactic.

I call 'em as I see them Kep, but I was more referring to the bozos who staged a "Hey look at ME" walkout at the convention (and headed straight for the media tents)which wouldn't have been noticed except for a hungry media desperate to re-enact the 1968 Dem convention. Which is funny in of itself. I think it was Brokaw drawing the comparisons. Doesn't he realize anybody old enough to watch and understand what was going on in Chicago '68 is now no younger than 60?

Regarding 3rd party voters, again I come back to the math. The money shot is how current 3rd party voters voted in 2012. Are Obama re-election people going to Johnson or Stein, or is it people who didn't participate but were drawn out by Bernie this time? Or is Johnson being propped up by Romney voters (think the Bush crowd)? I have no idea, but that's the key question. If your identity is to always vote 3rd party, have at it. If you're an Obama person who somehow doesn't mind turning the country over to Trump, that's where I question your sanity.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I have always thought that it's complete B.S. for people to blame Nader for Al Gore's loss. It presumes that a Nader vote would have been for Gore. What if they had voted for Bush, or not voted at all?

I have changed my mind on this. I used to blame Nader, but you guys' arguments have worn me down.

Now I feel it's like blaming Ricardo Lockette for the Seahawks loss in 2015 because he was the intended receiver of the Russell Wilson pass and if he wasn't an alternate choice Carroll might have gone back to Marshawn Lynch, and Wilson might have safely handed off, and the Patriots might have defended poorly (even though Lockette not being there also removes one option they have to defend against) and Lynch might have scored.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Voting as practiced in the US is simply game theory taken to one of its highest levels.

Not sure it's that high a level. Parliamentary multi-party systems seem to inspire far more sophisticated and nuanced voter behavior.

 

[unofan]

Not sure it's that high a level. Parliamentary multi-party systems seem to inspire far more sophisticated and nuanced voter behavior.

For those in swing states considering third party candidates, it is.

Yeah, if you're in California, you can pretty much vote however without worrying because the electoral votes are a foregone conclusion.

If you're a potential Johnson voter in Iowa or Ohio, though, you need to do some hard thinking about whether you voting for him is worth the risk of your less preferred major party candidate taking the state.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The main thing I can't stand with the advocates of the third party candidates is the assumption that since I don't fully agree with the major candidates I should vote X because "you have another choice!" No, no I don't.

Take Johnson/Weld. Libertarian Party candidates right? I'm a union member and a strong believer in democratic-socialism, why the * would I even consider voting Libertarian? Johnson/Weld is everything I hate about Republicans minus the anti-gay rhetoric and the overt racism. No thanks, I'll pass.

Jill Stein? Sure I agree with a lot of social policies but there's one hitch: Green Party. Yes I want to tackle global warming and have good environmental protection and all that but, I also live in a state that is highly dependent on the oil industry. I'd love to hear a little more on how they plan to help areas highly dependent on oil economically when they cut off the production. Also, they're not too keen on hunting and fishing.

What I see out of a lot of the people who advocate third party is the attitude of people who think they're the smartest person in the room and want everyone to know it, without ever really thinking about they're saying.

 

[Scarlet]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

So, I'm done discussing this election with Trump's minions on Facebook. I got a response to my question about why Obama's presidency is disgraceful and while I just roll my eyes at the "he's made race relations worse and the deficit has increased" the poster's comment about he supports Muslins and doesn't support Christianity made me scream internally. I asked her to prove it and post something, she says "oh, just Google it." Yeah OK. Of course she couldn't make a concrete defense of her meandering statement.

Then this morning a close friend who is a Republican, HAAAAATES Elizabeth Warren and things Obama is not a good speaker, (which....what??? that is one of his strengths!!) posted this morning that Bernie got robbed. It's only because she doesn't like Clinton. I know it is. I can't deal.

I have to say, even though there is similar discourse here, I thank you all for helping me with questions and all being pretty level headed. It's helped me a lot.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The main thing I can't stand with the advocates of the third party candidates is the assumption that since I don't fully agree with the major candidates I should vote X because "you have another choice!" No, no I don't.

Take Johnson/Weld. Libertarian Party candidates right? I'm a union member and a strong believer in democratic-socialism, why the * would I even consider voting Libertarian? Johnson/Weld is everything I hate about Republicans minus the anti-gay rhetoric and the overt racism. No thanks, I'll pass.

Jill Stein? Sure I agree with a lot of social policies but there's one hitch: Green Party. Yes I want to tackle global warming and have good environmental protection and all that but, I also live in a state that is highly dependent on the oil industry. I'd love to hear a little more on how they plan to help areas highly dependent on oil economically when they cut off the production. Also, they're not too keen on hunting and fishing.

What I see out of a lot of the people who advocate third party is the attitude of people who think they're the smartest person in the room and want everyone to know it, without ever really thinking about they're saying.

I think some third party advocates are simply extending the "lesser of two evils" theory. That is, if you think that a person must vote for either HRC or Trump under a lesser of two evils theory, then don't you really have to consider all candidates on the ballot under a "lesser of four evils" analysis?

Personally, I don't subscribe to the lesser of two evils theory. I think it is largely premised on the notion that you are voting to assure victory for one team over another. It's probably the proper course if you hate, say Trump, but you really want the Republican team to win. Again, that's not the way I look at it. I might vote for one candidate for POTUS but a candidate from a different office for Senate.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The main thing I can't stand with the advocates of the third party candidates is the assumption that since I don't fully agree with the major candidates I should vote X because "you have another choice!" No, no I don't.

Take Johnson/Weld. Libertarian Party candidates right? I'm a union member and a strong believer in democratic-socialism, why the * would I even consider voting Libertarian? Johnson/Weld is everything I hate about Republicans minus the anti-gay rhetoric and the overt racism. No thanks, I'll pass.

Jill Stein? Sure I agree with a lot of social policies but there's one hitch: Green Party. Yes I want to tackle global warming and have good environmental protection and all that but, I also live in a state that is highly dependent on the oil industry. I'd love to hear a little more on how they plan to help areas highly dependent on oil economically when they cut off the production. Also, they're not too keen on hunting and fishing.

What I see out of a lot of the people who advocate third party is the attitude of people who think they're the smartest person in the room and want everyone to know it, without ever really thinking about they're saying.

I think you hit on something in that IMHO a lot of 3rd party advocates don't understand the positions of the people they're backing. That doesn't go for everybody mind you but some libertarian positions for example are pretty extreme.

 

[XYZ]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

What I see out of a lot of the people who advocate third party is the attitude of people who think they're the smartest person in the room and want everyone to know it, without ever really thinking about they're saying.

If that were the case this entire board would vote third party.