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Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
This is relevant how?
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It's relevant because the Orcs never deviate. They always vote the ticket up and down. Liberals don't do that. Never have. Thus it is my opinion that Hillary hatred will outweigh Trump hatred in the voting booth by a significant margin.

That most likely will be massively offset by demographics. The Supreme Court in my opinion is a wash on bothsides cause it will bring out both bases.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

geezer said:
The seven stages of grief are a reasonable response to the fact that Hillary and tDonald are (seriously?) the best two candidates the United States of America can put forth for the office of President. Give them a couple months to work through it.
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Don't confuse the most popular with being the best. They are two different things, sometimes they are the same people and other times not.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
It's relevant because the Orcs never deviate. They always vote the ticket up and down. Liberals don't do that. Never have. Thus it is my opinion that Hillary hatred will outweigh Trump hatred in the voting booth by a significant margin.

That most likely will be massively offset by demographics. The Supreme Court in my opinion is a wash on bothsides cause it will bring out both bases.
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Liberals never have? To quote @dick_nixon, "My God!"
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Problem with SCOTUS pick is it helps Democrats more than Republicans. Why? Because there's more Democrats than Republicans (including independent "leanens" for each side). If one side has outvoted the other in 5 out of the last 6 elections, logic would dictate you don't hand them an issue to galvanize their interest in the upcoming contest. Its entirely possible some hardcore Sanders supporters skip this election. I've heard up to 25% in some polls. That would translate to a couple million votes, although bear in mind some of those are new voters. Based on 2012 Hillary has a 5M vote cushion to work with, plus most likely increased Hispanic turnout due to Trump. I seriously doubt a quarter of Sanders voters stay home given the stakes (liberal control of SCOTUS) this election so she has some room to spare provided she turns out the Obama coalition again.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

unofan said:
If Hillary were a man, I doubt she'd get as much criticism. She'll be the most qualified candidate we've had in decades, even excluding the "first women to do X" spots on her resume:

Undergrad at Wellesley, J.D. from Yale,
Former chair of the Legal Services Corporation
Former partner in a prestigious law firm
Served on the board of directors at Wal-Mart and other major corporations
Two-term Senator from NY
Former Secretary of State
Significant role in an international charitable organization (the Clinton foundation)

If your biggest complaint about her is the tone of her voice, she's already won.
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No doubt she'll win, but none of that precludes her being a lying criminal... while tDonald is a criminal liar, which is even worse. I'm just a bit depressed that we couldn't do better.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Democratic turnout is a serious problem in midterms but not in presidential years. Our last four losses -- Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry - were all problems with the candidate, not with motivating the base.

The Culture Wars works primarily as reaction: people get upset they are being attacked by the other camp and that gives them the energy to organize and fight back. That's how Rove won elections with Dubya. But it works both ways, and I don't think anybody is ready for how offensive the right behind Drumpf will be against a woman candidate for president. The racist dog whistles didn't hurt them any because all the blacks were already on the other side, but when they start in with the equivalent of a national MRA campaign, that's going to really twist the knife on women inside their own party.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Democratic turnout is a serious problem in midterms but not in presidential years. Our last four losses -- Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry - were all problems with the candidate, not with motivating the base.
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I still don't understand how anyone could think Bush was a better choice than Gore, and then after Iraq I'm even more confused how someone could pull the lever for that moron vs Kerry.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

BassAle said:
I still don't understand how anyone could think Bush was a better choice than Gore, and then after Iraq I'm even more confused how someone could pull the lever for that moron vs Kerry.
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If intellect was the prime driver of politics we wouldn't have had a Republican president since Nixon.

On the other hand: how'd that work out?

People look for all sorts of characteristics in a president. Intelligence is a low priority, if one at all. It's not that big a surprise: C students don't like A students in high school either. :)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
If intellect was the prime driver of politics we wouldn't have had a Republican president since Nixon.

On the other hand: how'd that work out?

People look for all sorts of characteristics in a president. Intelligence is a low priority, if one at all. It's not that big a surprise: C students don't like A students in high school either. :)
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I thought I already explained this to you nitwits.
And finally, if you base your view of President Bush’s intellect on a public image and caricature shaped by late night comedians, op-ed writers, TV pundits, and Twitter, is that a smart thing for you to do?
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You're being blinded by the Texas accent.
 
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Kepler said:
If intellect was the prime driver of politics we wouldn't have had a Republican president since Nixon.

On the other hand: how'd that work out?

People look for all sorts of characteristics in a president. Intelligence is a low priority, if one at all. It's not that big a surprise: C students don't like A students in high school either. :)
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Seems like someone reposts that condescending liberal know it all post every single day :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

mookie1995 said:
Seems like someone reposts that condescending liberal know it all post every single day :D
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No, no, no. This was scorn, not condescension. With condescension you try to give the appearance of caring how you're received.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

BassAle said:
I still don't understand how anyone could think Bush was a better choice than Gore, and then after Iraq I'm even more confused how someone could pull the lever for that moron vs Kerry.
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When it comes to Gore, he came off as smarmy. Bush hadn't yet proved himself to be a bad President, and some people might've thought they were getting his father's clone in office.

As for Kerry, Iraq hadn't yet proven to be a complete sh**show, and so many people were still very gung ho on rooting out terrorism and Islamic everything, that at that point, they overlooked Bush's treatment of domestic issues, which still hadn't hit their trough. The worst things we remember about Bush's domestic policies didn't happen until after 2004. And Kerry simply wasn't that impressive of a candidate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

BassAle said:
I just read through a **** storm of "Bernie or Bust" "Never Hillary" idiots posting on an NPR article about Bernie shedding campaign staff. They were also outraged that NPR would even run the article and claimed it was showing their "anti Bernie bias". I'm seriously worried about these idiots. Lots of them seemed to think there was some kind of conspiracy against Bernie, and NPR was in on it. I'm a Bernie fan, but I know he isn't going to be the nominee and I sure as hell am going to vote for Hillary in the general.
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Those idiots are a very small minority and even they will end up voting.

What state is Drumpf going to win that Obama won?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

ScoobyDoo said:
Voters didn't fear Gore either. Gore lost because there was too much level pulling for 2000's Bernie.
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Gore lost because the people in his home state didnt even vote for him. I love how people make all these excuses for Gore and forget he wasnt nearly the candidate they thought he was. It is never actually his fault that he ran a campaign that lost to Dubya...
 
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