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Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Pat takes a victory lap.
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He has several things right. I am a bit curious how the Republicans make peace with the Bush era. In that regard, Trump has done the party a favor as they can finally move beyond thinking the Iraq War was a good idea. :rolleyes: But, I have no idea what becomes of the country club corporate crowd. The suits HATE xenophobia or even social issue legislation aside from abortion restrictions. If that's going to be the norm, and I suspect it will going forward in the GOP, I don't see how that gets resolved.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Oh boy.

If Paul Ryan can’t support Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, he isn’t fit to be House speaker, Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson said Friday.
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I guess Drumpf missed out on the whole honey/vinegar lesson.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Crosstabs from the CNN/ORC Poll:

Overall: Clinton +13 (54-41)

Men: tie (47-47)
Women: Clinton +26 (61-35)

White: Trump +9 (52-43)
Non-white: Clinton +67 (81-14)

Democratic: Clinton +89 (94-5)
Independent: Clinton +11 (51-40)
Republican: Trump +72 (84-12)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Crosstabs from the CNN/ORC Poll:

Overall: Clinton +13 (54-41)

Men: tie (47-47)
Women: Clinton +26 (61-35)

White: Trump +9 (52-43)
Non-white: Clinton +67 (81-14)

Democratic: Clinton +89 (94-5)
Independent: Clinton +11 (51-40)
Republican: Trump +72 (84-12)
Click to expand...

If I were a Democratic operative, I would be very careful advertising those numbers. It froths up the GOP and makes the Dems overly confident thinking, "Hillary is going to crush it. I probably don't need to vote."

That and we haven't seen numbers like those since 1996 when Perot farked things up and, before that, it was 1984 where we last saw numbers like that between two candidates. It was 1932 and 1928 we last saw a non-incumbent pull that kind of lead. So I'm not entirely sure I buy those numbers.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Trump will win Romney level vote totals. His problem is he's going to drive up Hispanic turnout for Hillary and older women will also come out for her as their last chance to see a female President in their lifetimes. The closer she gets to Obama 2008 vote totals the more perilous the GOP's hold on the House becomes.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Pat takes a victory lap.
Click to expand...

If Trump isn't W in policy, he is in practice. I can't count how many times this week I've already heard that old W classic "It's fine that he has no understanding of policy; he'll surround himself with people to do that". We saw how that worked out last time.

If there's a saving grace, at least Trump would surround himself with clueless sycophants rather than straight up war criminals:

Trump introduced me to ‘our resident physician, Dr. Ginger Lee Southall’—a recent chiropractic college graduate...I asked Trump where she had done her training. ‘I’m not sure,’ he said, ‘Baywatch Medical School? Does that sound right? I’ll tell you the truth. Once I saw Dr. Ginger’s photograph, I didn’t really need to look at her resume or anyone else’s. Are you asking me, ‘Did we hire her because she trained at Mount Sinai for fifteen years? The answer is no. And I’ll tell you why: because by the time she’s spent fifteen years at Mount Sinai, we don’t want to look at her’
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, and Trump thinks the US can default on debt the same way he did with his real estate businesses and its no big. Anyone with a shred of economic understanding knows that would be catastrophic, and yet I've heard so many people say they'll vote for him anyway "because he's the Republican candidate". Those are the really shameful people in this whole thing.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Crosstabs from the CNN/ORC Poll:

Overall: Clinton +13 (54-41)

Men: tie (47-47)
Women: Clinton +26 (61-35)

White: Trump +9 (52-43)
Non-white: Clinton +67 (81-14)

Democratic: Clinton +89 (94-5)
Independent: Clinton +11 (51-40)
Republican: Trump +72 (84-12)
Click to expand...

I get the feeling that those numbers among Republicans would be worse if anyone but Clinton were the D nominee.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

dxmnkd316 said:
If I were a Democratic operative, I would be very careful advertising those numbers. It froths up the GOP and makes the Dems overly confident thinking, "Hillary is going to crush it. I probably don't need to vote."

That and we haven't seen numbers like those since 1996 when Perot farked things up and, before that, it was 1984 where we last saw numbers like that between two candidates. It was 1932 and 1928 we last saw a non-incumbent pull that kind of lead. So I'm not entirely sure I buy those numbers.
Click to expand...

The Dems are not going to get cocky and not vote...maybe they would in a normal election but not one where the Supreme Court is on the line.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I'm missing Obama already. He's not perfect, but we really haven't had anyone as talented in the chair in many, many years.

He just spoke. His message regarding the election 1) the American people need to understand candidate policies and know when they can't work and have it called out 2) Democrats pretty much agree on policy...there's a debate in the GOP and everyone (esp Republicans) need to ask themselves 'is this the candidate who backs things that I care about'.

Kepler said:
Crosstabs from the CNN/ORC Poll:

Overall: Clinton +13 (54-41)

Men: tie (47-47)
Women: Clinton +26 (61-35)

White: Trump +9 (52-43)
Non-white: Clinton +67 (81-14)

Democratic: Clinton +89 (94-5)
Independent: Clinton +11 (51-40)
Republican: Trump +72 (84-12)
Click to expand...

As a comparison, Clinton is actually doing better with whites than Obama did. Clinton has backing of 43%...Obama got 39%. As with Dx, I don't believe that these numbers will stay. Trumps going to rise...but he's got a loong way to go. Time is on his side, but the real wild card that appears what's needed for him is investigation results.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Handyman said:
The Dems are not going to get cocky and not vote...maybe they would in a normal election but not one where the Supreme Court is on the line.
Click to expand...

That's likely going to be off the table. Now that Trump has been nominated the GOP is getting behind Garland.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I get the feeling that those numbers among Republicans would be worse if anyone but Clinton were the D nominee.
Click to expand...

Bernie was consistently running 6 points better than Clinton against Drumpf, so you may be right.

Doesn't matter, though. Contrafactuals are fun but you go to the election with the candidate you have, not the candidate you wish you had. Hillary will be fine. This is an election where nobody is going to be a "leaner." The sides are set in theological concrete, and either candidate could murder a puppy on live TV and not lose a voter.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

5mn_Major said:
I'm missing Obama already. He's not perfect, but we really haven't had anyone as talented in the chair in many, many years.
Click to expand...

By the end of this campaign only the Bitter Enders are going to be negative towards Obama. He's already back over 50 in favorables, and by the time the country has had 6 months of those two going at it he's going to be higher.

He actually has been a **** good president, especially considering he's had to govern for 6 of 8 years against a Republican party that is a screaming toddler wearing a suicide vest.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

walrus said:
Chris Mathews must be a switch hitter, tingle down the leg over Obama and apparently the runway walk of Trumps wife.
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Thought Bush was the one who gave him the tingle down his leg? In the flight suit, you know, showing off the package.
 
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