Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

There's no such thing as an electoral lock

Yes there is. DC is going to the Democrats. Mississippi is going to the Republicans. And etc.

I believe the point the writer is making is that past trends are useful right up until the moment they're not. By definition, we can't see unforeseen events.

This was another striking quote:

When Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford in 1976, every big state was competitive: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois and Ohio all had at least 25 electoral votes, and each one was decided by less than five points.

If I hadn't lived through that time I wouldn't be able to wrap my head around it. What changed was cultural identity was nationalized by political parties; national politics became what it is today: California vs Texas.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Kep may or may not like this:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...inton-remains-formidable-2016-nbc-wsj-n353386

Despite lamestream media being in league with conservative book authors, Hillary STILL is 1) the only candidate for Prez not with an unfavorable approval rating, and 2) beating all potential rivals. Proving that she's such a known quantity its tough moving the dail on her, and this is before her team starts beating the sh !t out of whoever the GOP nominates.

It's still all just early name recognition. Remember, if/when she's the nominee, she gets my full support to stop the morlocks. I just reserve the right to insist that real liberalism works better for this country than cynical crony capitalism wrapped in a shiny Democratic label.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Carly's in the race!

So some don't feel Wiki is the greatest source. But I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone prove it wrong either. Anyways, here's a wiki's summary of Carly's business experience:

Fiorina was considered one of the most powerful women in business during her tenure at Lucent and Hewlett-Packard. In 2002, Fiorina pushed for a contentious merger with rival computer company Compaq, which made HP the world's largest personal computer manufacturer[2] but made its stock lose half of its value.[3] In 2005, Fiorina resigned from HP.[4] Since then she has been described as one of the worst tech CEOs of all time.[5][6][7][8]...(Note four sources!) Fiorina ordered the layoffs of 30,000 HP employees during her tenure.[9]

It's pretty obvious that she's running for Veep, since the GOP will react to a Hillary nomination by throwing anything with a vagina on the ticket.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Gov. Mike Huckabee, come on down!!

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Picking Fiorina as VP would be a disaster. She puts no state in play, and she weds the GOP ticket to the 1% corporate crowd not to mention she got canned from her job. IF the GOP is going to go that route, Susanna Martinez is a better choice.

However, I think either Walker or Rubio ends up being VP depending on who wins the nomination. You need some Florida presence on the ticket this year for the GOP because if they can't win that state they have zero hope of winning the WH. Bush = no Rubio but Walker. Walker = no Bush but Rubio. Paul + Rubio. Cruz = No Rubio (too Hispanic of a ticket) + Walker. Outside chance for someone like Portman getting the nod for VP.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Picking Fiorina as VP would be a disaster. She puts no state in play, and she weds the GOP ticket to the 1% corporate crowd not to mention she got canned from her job. IF the GOP is going to go that route, Susanna Martinez is a better choice.

However, I think either Walker or Rubio ends up being VP depending on who wins the nomination. You need some Florida presence on the ticket this year for the GOP because if they can't win that state they have zero hope of winning the WH. Bush = no Rubio but Walker. Walker = no Bush but Rubio. Paul + Rubio. Cruz = No Rubio (too Hispanic of a ticket) + Walker. Outside chance for someone like Portman getting the nod for VP.

Alright, its not time for Rubio to panic...but its almost time. He is extremely unlikely to get the nomination as Bush is all over that...and to your point, he won't get a sniff of the VP job with Bush on the ticket. Frankly, I don't think Walker does either. Walker is from a coveted midwest swing state. But I see Bush as fairly pragmatic and measured...Walker is an ideologue and is starting to pick positions out of thin air. I see Bush going after someone smart and pragmatic like himself. I'm not seeing that in the field however.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Alright, its not time for Rubio to panic...but its almost time. He is extremely unlikely to get the nomination as Bush is all over that...and to your point, he won't get a sniff of the VP job with Bush on the ticket. Frankly, I don't think Walker does either. Walker is from a coveted midwest swing state. But I see Bush as fairly pragmatic and measured...Walker is an ideologue and is starting to pick positions out of thin air. I see Bush going after someone smart and pragmatic like himself. I'm not seeing that in the field however.

I see why there is a coronation for Hillary (cause there is no field), but I do not understand this coronation for Bush around here. It makes no sense to me.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I see why there is a coronation for Hillary (cause there is no field), but I do not understand this coronation for Bush around here. It makes no sense to me.

Its just a hunch. But a logical one as he hits all the boxes. He does have a decent amount of relevant experience...and its as a governor which is actually preferred in some circles. He is a relatively known quantity as he's been in the national spotlight. People will see him as electable (his brother got elected didn't he). He feels familiar for those who don't know him today due to family ties but is not his brother. He is from Florida - only Ohio can claim to be as valuable being in the midwest. Through his family, he is as well connected as you can be and the establishment candidate. He will have a money advantage (he raised the most money in the first 100 days of any modern era politician). Hispanic connections and commitment (even the GOP changes...this may not have helped get the nomination in 2008 but it will in 2016). Most Republicans have a more ideological bent and therefore are more prone to gaffe themselves out of nomination. We'll see...but I'd say over a 60% chance of the nomination which is extremely high at this stage of the process.

 

[Foxton]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I see why there is a coronation for Hillary (cause there is no field), but I do not understand this coronation for Bush around here. It makes no sense to me.

I don't understand how any can be looked upon favorably. In a sane world they'd all be thought of as unelectable trash.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I don't understand how any can be looked upon favorably. In a sane world they'd all be thought of as unelectable trash.

We don't live in a sane country. We kept the South instead of telling them to go bleep themselves when we had the chance.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Its just a hunch. But a logical one as he hits all the boxes. He does have a decent amount of relevant experience...and its as a governor which is actually preferred in some circles. He is a relatively known quantity as he's been in the national spotlight. People will see him as electable (his brother got elected didn't he). He feels familiar for those who don't know him today due to family ties but is not his brother. He is from Florida - only Ohio can claim to be as valuable being in the midwest. Through his family, he is as well connected as you can be and the establishment candidate. He will have a money advantage (he raised the most money in the first 100 days of any modern era politician). Hispanic connections and commitment (even the GOP changes...this may not have helped get the nomination in 2008 but it will in 2016). Most Republicans have a more ideological bent and therefore are more prone to gaffe themselves out of nomination. We'll see...but I'd say over a 60% chance of the nomination which is extremely high at this stage of the process.

This. Add that he is not readily associated with a crazy policy position or remark (because he's a professional politician) and in all honesty he actually is the most acceptable GOP candidate.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Frankly, the layoffs during the great recession I can look past. Everyone was being laid off at the time.

It's the notion that HP should get out of the computer business that she should be castigated for.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bush is the most acceptable candidate to political pundits and casual observers. He really, really needs the fundies to not coalesce behind one candidate or he's toast.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bush is the most acceptable candidate to political pundits and casual observers. He really, really needs the fundies to not coalesce behind one candidate or he's toast.

Bush wins it inspite of 'fundies'...thoughts of electability will set. And in this race, it will be a meaningful difference on that one.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bush wins it inspite of 'fundies'...thoughts of electability will set. And in this race, it will be a meaningful difference on that one.

Bad news for GOP is he does. Another McCain/Romney redux - 2nd or 3rd choice candidate that the base has to hold their nose and vote for while the Dems pound away at the notion of Jeb serving out GWB's 3rd term.

 

[joecct]

Bad news for GOP is he does. Another McCain/Romney redux - 2nd or 3rd choice candidate that the base has to hold their nose and vote for while the Dems pound away at the notion of Jeb serving out GWB's 3rd term.

And Hill serving Bill's. What if they held an election and nobody voted?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

And Hill serving Bill's. What if they held an election and nobody voted?

Pretty sure the dynasty election is on its way.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bush is the most acceptable candidate to political pundits and casual observers. He really, really needs the fundies to not coalesce behind one candidate or he's toast.

Once Jeb's handlers get through, the thumpers will think he's one of them. With $300M they had fundy kids braying about the religious virtues of a coked-out silver spoon frat chimp like he was Aimee Semple McPherson; with $2B they can do at least as much for his brother. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the faith-based community.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

And Hill serving Bill's. What if they held an election and nobody voted?

A contest between Bill's 3rd term and Bush's isn't a contest at all.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Tell us again how Bernie's not going to be a positive influence on Hillary...

Bernie's value in the primaries has zero to do with his results and everything to do with forcing Hillary to engage the Democratic wing of the Democratic party.