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Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

How the mighty have fallen.

William F. Buckley's old rag is about to endorse a cross between Elmer Gantry and Joe McCarthy.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

joecct said:
Ohio and FLA are winner takes all. Outside of Rubio, no one else was in play in FLA besides tD.

Kasich needs Ohio more than Bill needs generic viagara.

The idea is keep tD below 50% in any state. Then at the convention you can start the groundswell that if tD can't win over 50% of the GOP, how can he win 50% of the fall vote?
Click to expand...

This breaks it down well:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ection=Trending&pgtype=article&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Trump is 779 delegates away from a majority. On March 15th, FL and IL (and OH) are winner take all. FL has 99 delegates, IL 69 and Ohio 66. If Trump wins FL and IL, he's got another 168 delegates to his total. Furthermore, if he gets half of the NC and MO delegates that's another 62 delegates. Now walking out of March 15th, even on a semi-bad night, he only needs 549 more delegates (540 if he wins Northern Mariana - look it up!).

So, what else is out there? WI-42, AZ-58, DE-16, MD-38, PA-71 are all winner take all through the end of April. Which one does Trump lose? How about "none of them"? If Kasich couldn't do better than 3rd in MI, he's not winning these other states. Give Donald another 225 delegates. For proportional states, NY-95, CT-28, RI-19, UT-40. Okay lets say he gets nothing out of UT (a stretch but whatever). The Northeast is his base. He's going to kick butt in these states. Even if he give him about half of those delegates, and nothing in UT, that's another 75 delegates.

By the end of April, he's 540-225-75 or 240 delegates away from pay dirt. Its now a desperate scramble to stop him by people who's press coverage and fundraising is going to be in the toilet. CA has 172 delegates. Is Cruz winning there? No. Those are Trump's. NJ-51? Trump. IN-57? Trump. WV-34? Trump.

Its all over but the crying.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Are the WTA states purely winner take all? For example, if you have 4 candidates and they go 26%, 25, 25, 24 the 26 gets everything? Or is there a proviso about getting to 50% before WTA kicks in? I would think that would have been the better way to do it.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

joecct said:
Three, no trumps

@EWErickson: So to review:
(1) Bush has meeting with Rubio, Cruz, Kasich.
(2) Cruz gets out of FL.
(3) Rubio says go Kasich in OH.
(4) Cruz in NC, MO, IL
Click to expand...

The grand bargain. I get how Ohio helps the cause. But in FL it won't matter, Trump's got it anyways (and I agree with Rover that Cruz' votes go to Trump). And if Rubio and Kasich back away in NC, MO, and IL...that should make Trump's straight vote higher. But if it gets Rubio to give in in Ohio...maybe somehow its worth it to the grand coalition.

Edit: I guess its not a grand coalition. Sounds like Cruz has no interest in the plan. Wise for him. He can't be seen as a Washington plant manipulating his base. That would be the end of him:

“It’s the Washington establishment’s last gasp: ‘Let’s divide things up. Let’s play games,’” Mr. Cruz said in a taped interview with Fox News. “It’s real, real simple. How do you beat Donald Trump? You beat him.”
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Each Trump rally now begins with a taped warning telling supporters: “If a protester starts demonstrating in the area around you, please do not harm the protester.”
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

5mn_Major said:
Each Trump rally now begins with a taped warning telling supporters: “If a protester starts demonstrating in the area around you, please do not harm the protester.”
Click to expand...

Are you sure is says "do not"? :cool:
 
Kepler said:
Are the WTA states purely winner take all? For example, if you have 4 candidates and they go 26%, 25, 25, 24 the 26 gets everything? Or is there a proviso about getting to 50% before WTA kicks in? I would think that would have been the better way to do it.
Click to expand...

Winner take all is pure. The past states have been more the latter: they're proportional unless a candidate gets over 50%. Florida, Ohio, and Illinois would have the 26% getting everything. Which is why the gamesmanship at this point is about stopping Trump from clinching the nomination rather than catching him.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

unofan said:
Winner take all is pure. The past states have been more the latter: they're proportional unless a candidate gets over 50%. Florida, Ohio, and Illinois would have the 26% getting everything. Which is why the gamesmanship at this point is about stopping Trump from clinching the nomination rather than catching him.
Click to expand...

I didn't realize that the past proportional states would have ticked over in WTA of anybody had hit 50%. It makes sense now -- they do have hybrids, but we're past them.

There is another possible way to stop Drumpf, though. Start adding one-off candidates. I don't know whether filing deadlines are still open. But if you start throwing sitting senators or governors into their state's primary, everybody's numbers collapse and you essentially convert part of the pledged delegate pool to supers, starting on ballot 2. It's an obvious screwjob but so is the Grand Bargain.

You could even argue that regional candidates were part of the Founders' vision so, cough, this is actually close to their intent, snicker.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

5mn_Major said:
The grand bargain. I get how Ohio helps the cause. But in FL it won't matter, Trump's got it anyways (and I agree with Rover that Cruz' votes go to Trump). And if Rubio and Kasich back away in NC, MO, and IL...that should make Trump's straight vote higher. But if it gets Rubio to give in in Ohio...maybe somehow its worth it to the grand coalition.

Edit: I guess its not a grand coalition. Sounds like Cruz has no interest in the plan. Wise for him. He can't be seen as a Washington plant manipulating his base. That would be the end of him:

“It’s the Washington establishment’s last gasp: ‘Let’s divide things up. Let’s play games,’” Mr. Cruz said in a taped interview with Fox News. “It’s real, real simple. How do you beat Donald Trump? You beat him.”
Click to expand...

Yup. As I said before Cruz is playing the long game. Either he gets the nomination this time around, or he's Next In Line for 2020 as the runner up often times gets the nod during the next open primary (Bush Sr although he was the sitting VP, Dole, McCain, and Mittens). Unlike Rubio he didn't give up his perch in the Senate. 4 years hence if Trump loses Cruz can say he embodies all of his policies without being a carnival sideshow. No need to play games this year.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

joecct said:
@JohnBerman: BREAKING: @marcorubio communications director @AlexConant tells us Rubio supporters in Ohio should vote for @JohnKasich.

@ThisHour
Click to expand...


joecct said:
Three, no trumps

@EWErickson: So to review:
(1) Bush has meeting with Rubio, Cruz, Kasich.
(2) Cruz gets out of FL.
(3) Rubio says go Kasich in OH.
(4) Cruz in NC, MO, IL
Click to expand...


From 3/9/2016
dxmnkd316 said:
If the establishment wants to pick their person, they need to dump everything they have into Ohio to ensure Kasich wins there. Rubio needs to drop out either immediately or after Florida and tell his voters to vote Kasich or Cruz.

New York needs to have Kasich pick up at least 5-10% and Cruz needs to win California.

Oh, and when I say they need to dump money into Ohio, I mean it. Kasich is in a precarious position and needs every bit of help he can get.

Florida is lost. If Rubio drops out now, that might ensure Ohio is a win.
Click to expand...

I see the GOP is reading this board. :D ;)

Edit: Never mind. I totally read that as Rubio backs out of Florida. Meaning he's out of the race.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

joecct said:
Ohio and FLA are winner takes all. Outside of Rubio, no one else was in play in FLA besides tD.

Kasich needs Ohio more than Bill needs generic viagara.

The idea is keep tD below 50% in any state. Then at the convention you can start the groundswell that if tD can't win over 50% of the GOP, how can he win 50% of the fall vote?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I follow this logic. "Your guy only got 45% of the delegates, so how can he win the general? We should go with this other guy who got 20% of the delegates instead!" (or 0%, if you're talking about picking someone completely new).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Rover said:
1) Bush has meeting with Rubio, Cruz, Kasich. - why he hasn't endorsed Kasich yet is beyond me. Natural fit.
(2) Cruz gets out of FL. - Only benefits Trump. They're after the same voters.
(3) Rubio says go Kasich in OH. - Great, but a narrow win in OH doesn't change much if Trump romps everywhere else.
(4) Cruz in NC, MO, IL - all of which he probably loses.

There's a fundamental pundidiot misunderstanding about the GOP race, which is the winner take all states. In the Dem contest needing to win 55 or 60% of remaining delegates, when all delegates are allocated proportionally is a worthwhile comparison. But for the GOP race in winner take all states saying you need 55% of remaining delegates is apples to oranges comparison. Trump wins 100% of FL delegates if he wins the state, so the math changes dramatically whenever a winner take all state votes.
Click to expand...

1. Agreed.
2. Yes and no. MSNBC has polling data that Rubio has a 33 to 26 lead on Cruz's second choice. Even with that, I think Florida is lost. I think Trump is going to focus on Florida worth only 99. It's a big prize, but he is going to have to work at it if Cruz pulls out, Jeb endorses Rubio, and Kasich stops advertising. If the GOP focuses on IL, NC, and OH, that's 207.
3. I disagree. Everything hinges on Cruz in CA, Kasich in OH, and I guess, Rubio in Florida.
4. NC & MO are proportional states. So every point counts there. IL is a WTA in the at large. Districts are direct. More importantly is Cruz winning California. Nebraska could be in play, but it's fairly insignificant.
 
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