Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Depends a lot on the GOP nominee. Rubio or Bush and it's probably just a continuation of recent trends, with Hillary matching Obama's 2012 result. Trump or Carson and it's a landslide, possibly even a long-term realignment, with Republicans going down in flames everywhere except the Deep South and the Aryan Nation states (ID, UT, WY, AZ). Cruz, I dunno. All my instincts are he can hide as establishment -- he's repellent, but so was Dubya.

Who's not running on the GOP side that should be running? Thinking of a Warren Harding moment in Cleveland.

EDIT: Christie relegated to JV squad.

EDITx2: He's joined by Huckabee. They'll face off against Jindal and Santorum.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Who's not running on the GOP side that should be running? Thinking of a Warren Harding moment in Cleveland.

Good premise. Got somebody in mind?

Spit balling, from least to most wild:

Condi Rice
Tim Pawlenty
Stanley McChrystal
Rick Scott
Clarence Thomas

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Good premise. Got somebody in mind?

Spit balling, from least to most wild:

Condi Rice
Tim Pawlenty
Stanley McChrystal
Rick Scott
Clarence Thomas

Nope. But here's a guess that Kasich will pull the Harding. Lay low, say nothing controversial, put your name in nomination in a deadlocked convention. Survive the lions killing each other and come out of the smoke filled room with a smile.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Kasich's problem is that he represents 1990's corporate conservatism, much like John Boner did. That's way on the outs in the modern GOP. Kasich is the candidate of 60+ year old Beltway pundits who's been in Washington for 40 years and think the country still wants guys like this for President. My money remains on Calgary Ted. He's got the bucks, he straddles the line between social cons and corporate cons, and his dedication to right wing causes is spotless, unlike Obamacare expanding Kasich or amnesty sponsoring Rubio.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Good premise. Got somebody in mind?

Spit balling, from least to most wild:

Condi Rice
Tim Pawlenty
Stanley McChrystal
Rick Scott
Clarence Thomas

Tim Pawlenty isn't qualified to run for dog catcher.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Kasich's problem is that he represents 1990's corporate conservatism, much like John Boner did. That's way on the outs in the modern GOP. Kasich is the candidate of 60+ year old Beltway pundits who's been in Washington for 40 years and think the country still wants guys like this for President.

I think that is joe's point: once you reach the smoke-filled room, those are the guys who still control the deal-making.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I think that is joe's point: once you reach the smoke-filled room, those are the guys who still control the deal-making.

I don't know if that's true anymore. People are overestimating the ability of the party aparatus to control events. If Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Ben Carson show up at the convention with the majority of delegates, turning to John freakin' Kasich as the nominee makes little sense. He would be the first nominee to get booed on the floor of the arena after his win was announced to the participants.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I don't know if that's true anymore. People are overestimating the ability of the party aparatus to control events. If Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Ben Carson show up at the convention with the majority of delegates, turning to John freakin' Kasich as the nominee makes little sense. He would be the first nominee to get booed on the floor of the arena after his win was announced to the participants.

I'll bet he wouldn't be the first. Check out stories on the "Klanbake."

I can't imagine the GOP permitting a public brokered convention -- they are smooth operators who respect marketing more than democracy. But I also couldn't imagine them shutting down the government or having a public dumpster fire over their Speaker, so who knows anymore?

 

[joecct]

I don't know if that's true anymore. People are overestimating the ability of the party aparatus to control events. If Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Ben Carson show up at the convention with the majority of delegates, turning to John freakin' Kasich as the nominee makes little sense. He would be the first nominee to get booed on the floor of the arena after his win was announced to the participants.

Adlai Stevenson? And the aforementioned Warren Harding. And who can forget Cal Coolidge? Sometimes boring is good.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I'll bet he wouldn't be the first. Check out stories on the "Klanbake."

I can't imagine the GOP permitting a public brokered convention -- they are smooth operators who respect marketing more than democracy. But I also couldn't imagine them shutting down the government or having a public dumpster fire over their Speaker, so who knows anymore?

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I can't image them having a replay of '76, especially since general election campaigns are usually well under way for months (unofficially) before the conventions start. But, as you also note, who knows anymore with that crowd. What I do know is its a pretty quick turnaround to decide on the nominee in July/Aug, smooth over all the hurt feelings of candidates who feel they should have been chosen, then unite to defeat your opponent who'll be out in the field for months building support.

A random thought: Can you image Donald Trump in the middle of a fractured convention? The planet might explode.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

This is one of the reasons the anti-regulation folks crack me up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/05/o...ad-boy.html?smid=fb-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0

I recounted how Johnson & Johnson deceptively marketed an antipsychotic medicine called Risperdal, concealing for example the fact that it can cause boys to grow large, pendulous breasts (one boy developed a 46DD bust). J&J got caught, pleaded guilty and paid more than $2 billion in penalties and settlements — but also registered $30 billion in Risperdal sales. The executive who oversaw this illegal marketing effort was Alex Gorsky, who then was promoted to chief executive of J&J. If you’re a pharmaceutical company, crime sometimes pays.

Anyone else see what's wrong with this? Anyone else get why people like don't understand why people like Sam Brownback, Mitch McConnell, and John Boehner get elected?

And Elizabeth Warren is about the only person fighting this crap. Bernie, Franken, Klobuchar maybe. Crap like above has law written all over it. You shouldn't be able to profit from that ****. They cleared 28 billion dollars for cripes sake.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

A random thought: Can you image Donald Trump in the middle of a fractured convention? The planet might explode.

Just as Madonna was born to play Evita, Trump was born to step to the center of the circus ring during a brokered convention and unleash the Kraken.

 

[joecct]

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I can't image them having a replay of '76, especially since general election campaigns are usually well under way for months (unofficially) before the conventions start. But, as you also note, who knows anymore with that crowd. What I do know is its a pretty quick turnaround to decide on the nominee in July/Aug, smooth over all the hurt feelings of candidates who feel they should have been chosen, then unite to defeat your opponent who'll be out in the field for months building support.

A random thought: Can you image Donald Trump in the middle of a fractured convention? The planet might explode.

Think of the TV ratings!!

I've been going down the primary states guessing who may win and if anyone hits a majority. I keep getting to NY and wondering who wins that, ditto for most of the NE.

The South gets split, etc. etc.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Think of the TV ratings!!

I've been going down the primary states guessing who may win and if anyone hits a majority. I keep getting to NY and wondering who wins that, ditto for most of the NE.

The South gets split, etc. etc.

The Invisible Primary still has Jeb with the lead, but almost everybody is holding back.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Think of the TV ratings!!

I've been going down the primary states guessing who may win and if anyone hits a majority. I keep getting to NY and wondering who wins that, ditto for most of the NE.

The South gets split, etc. etc.

A worthwhile exercise even though its a ways away and I'm curious what you came up with.

Iowa I think is significant if Trump/Rubio/Cruz wins or finishes strong, but not as much if Carson does. I'd also expect Huck and Santorum to throw in the towel shortly afterwards as Evangelicals start to coalesce.

NH is going to thin the herd of the Establishment Crowd. Jebbers!, Kasich and even Rubio need to show some strength here. If Trump wins, after a #1 or #2 finish i Iowa, we're in for a looooong ride.

Nevada is going to be Paul's swan song. At some point he needs to switch to running for re-election to his Senate seat. His father had some strength here and its a caucus. If he loses he needs to call it a day.

South Carolina is a reality check for Graham to G T F out of the race and go back to finding new wars for the US to commit to fighting. If Trump wins down here, in the state next door to Rubio and Bush, how can we take either of those guys seriously? Whoever finishes ahead of the other one is going to have some bragging rights provided they don't get crushed by Trump.

SEC Primary - who's left at this point? Cruz ought to clean up in TX and OK. VA and NC? No idea. Ark-AL-TN-GA? Gotta be a fundie I would think. I don't see too many openings for an Establishment candidate and that includes Rubio. Even in the next couple of weeks only Michigan opens up for the Corporate types until mid month when OH-FL-IL vote. I don't think any candidate can hang around that long with no victories up to that point to contest those states. Recall in 2012 Santorum won a few early states and Gingrich won SC which kept them both hanging around.

EDIT: Big problem if Trump is still around once the contest switches to the Northeast. In April NY-DE-CT-MD-PA-RI vote. He's going to own that.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

A worthwhile exercise even though its a ways away and I'm curious what you came up with.

Iowa I think is significant if Trump/Rubio/Cruz wins or finishes strong, but not as much if Carson does. I'd also expect Huck and Santorum to throw in the towel shortly afterwards as Evangelicals start to coalesce.

NH is going to thin the herd of the Establishment Crowd. Jebbers!, Kasich and even Rubio need to show some strength here. If Trump wins, after a #1 or #2 finish i Iowa, we're in for a looooong ride.

Nevada is going to be Paul's swan song. At some point he needs to switch to running for re-election to his Senate seat. His father had some strength here and its a caucus. If he loses he needs to call it a day.

South Carolina is a reality check for Graham to G T F out of the race and go back to finding new wars for the US to commit to fighting. If Trump wins down here, in the state next door to Rubio and Bush, how can we take either of those guys seriously? Whoever finishes ahead of the other one is going to have some bragging rights provided they don't get crushed by Trump.

SEC Primary - who's left at this point? Cruz ought to clean up in TX and OK. VA and NC? No idea. Ark-AL-TN-GA? Gotta be a fundie I would think. I don't see too many openings for an Establishment candidate and that includes Rubio. Even in the next couple of weeks only Michigan opens up for the Corporate types until mid month when OH-FL-IL vote. I don't think any candidate can hang around that long with no victories up to that point to contest those states. Recall in 2012 Santorum won a few early states and Gingrich won SC which kept them both hanging around.

My completely scientific take on VA is it is either Jeb (corporate cons, military contractors) or Trump (Howard Beale we don't need no water types).

I think you are misjudging Trump's staying power. He smells like a Palin-esque quitter: the moment he's not winning, he will give some sort of whining reason why he needs to suspend his campaign. Maybe he'll grab something from the Ross Perot "the Bush family is after Ivanka" bag of tricks. But Trump can't stomach any adversity -- this campaign is just one big mirror for him to bask in, and the moment it goes south or it requires any real work, he's off to the next gimmick.

That will leave Carson or Cruz to sop up the remainder of the "some men just want to watch the world burn" types, but I'm betting like Trump most of them will also wander off to whatever the next midway geek show is.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Oh Ben: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Oh Ben: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598

So, a revered Neurosurgeon felt compelled to gussy up his academic background? Really? Wow.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

My completely scientific take on VA is it is either Jeb (corporate cons, military contractors) or Trump (Howard Beale we don't need no water types).

I think you are misjudging Trump's staying power. He smells like a Palin-esque quitter: the moment he's not winning, he will give some sort of whining reason why he needs to suspend his campaign.

Perhaps, but if he starts winning early states when can we take him seriously? I too think he's a buffoon, but he's the only candidate with a national following and arguably leads in every state (really only Iowa has conflicting polls). He has name recognition and dollars that his rivals would die for. What he doesn't necessarily have is a ground game, so I'm curious if his celebrity will make up for that. Time will tell, but we're not that far away from when the voting starts and he's still in an enviable position.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Perhaps, but if he starts winning early states when can we take him seriously? I too think he's a buffoon, but he's the only candidate with a national following and arguably leads in every state (really only Iowa has conflicting polls). He has name recognition and dollars that his rivals would die for. What he doesn't necessarily have is a ground game, so I'm curious if his celebrity will make up for that. Time will tell, but we're not that far away from when the voting starts and he's still in an enviable position.

If you're asking when we can take him seriously as a force in the nomination, I'd say 6 weeks ago. He's having an enormous effect, even if it's just to block the lane for somebody who should have been using this time to either consolidate (Bush) or break through (Cruz). If you're asking when we can take him seriously as a candidate for public office, I'd say never. Donald Trump will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be president because, among other reasons, he doesn't want to be. This is the greatest troll in political, nay, world history.

He can win some primaries, but eventually he's going to start losing, and then he'll do some bizarre diva last dance and flounce off. And then during the general campaign he'll make noises about asking people to write him in as a protest, and then, finally, he'll endorse Hillary. And... scene.