Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I agree with you about the optics. People associate taking the 5th with the courtroom scene in Godfather II.

I kind of agree with you about Independents, except I don't believe there are any Independents. Twenty years ago I believed elections were about ignoring the thirds on the each side and winning the third in the middle. I don't believe there is a middle anymore, I think there are people who are every bit as aligned with the Dems or the GOP but who are so sickened by politics that they want to call themselves Independent and thus open-minded. But they aren't -- we've all become tribal and completely predictable. So Hillary's unfavorables among fake-independent-Republicans are going up, while fake-independent-Democrats are filing their nails as they're dragging the lake.

It eventually resolves to a 2-horse race, and at that point no matter how much you disdain your own guy the other side's guy is going to be ten times worse, and so the election result is close to predictable even this far out. The variance is very, very small, and as Rover has documented many times everything has to go the GOP's way to change the actual outcome.

Amen Brother! Independents = Tea party Goopers disgusted with the Itch and Boner show.

All that can save the GOP now is low Dem turnout. That relies exclusively on nominating a benign sounding candidate that will not scare the Dem leaners into voting against them. One has to wonder how Hispanic turnout will possibly be down next year when they have a bulls-eye on their back from EVERY GOP candidate, and that includes Jebbers! Hillary/Bernie/O'Malley/etc etc need to throw out an Elizabeth Warren style discounted student loan idea complete with details that people can understand to get young voters out, as well as a robust defense of Planned Parenthood since its younger people using that service and not the old men that make up the GOP base (unless PP hands out Viagra?).

To Bob's point though, I wonder which e-mail will sink Hillary? The one where she can't figure out how to use an I-Pad or the one where she's trying to find out the start time to The Good Wife?

 

[busterman62]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I agree with you about the optics. People associate taking the 5th with the courtroom scene in Godfather II.

I kind of agree with you about Independents, except I don't believe there are any Independents. Twenty years ago I believed elections were about ignoring the thirds on the each side and winning the third in the middle. I don't believe there is a middle anymore, I think there are people who are every bit as aligned with the Dems or the GOP but who are so sickened by politics that they want to call themselves Independent and thus open-minded. But they aren't -- we've all become tribal and completely predictable. So Hillary's unfavorables among fake-independent-Republicans are going up, while fake-independent-Democrats are filing their nails as they're dragging the lake.

It eventually resolves to a 2-horse race, and at that point no matter how much you disdain your own guy the other side's guy is going to be ten times worse, and so the election result is close to predictable even this far out. The variance is very, very small, and as Rover has documented many times everything has to go the GOP's way to change the actual outcome.

So, the inevitable comes to pass and it ends up as Hillary vs. Jeb. When I refuse to vote for either of them, does that make me a fake-independent-Republican, a fake-independent-Democrat or just smart?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Yeb! can probably pull a relatively high Hispanic share just by sending the wife out on the campaign trail. Brown people are no smarter than white people and their attention span is 8 seconds long same as everybody else -- Mrs. Yeb! can fix that problem.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So, the inevitable comes to pass and it ends up as Hillary vs. Jeb. When I refuse to vote for either of them, does that make me a fake-independent-Republican, a fake-independent-Democrat or just smart?

I'll say this. It will make you interesting. But also, I think, nearly alone. As loathsome as another round of Bush v Clinton would be, I'll bet that absent a Trump 3rd Party run they'll account for > 98% of the electorate.

With Trump in, Hillary could actually win an honest-to-god landslide.

 

[busterman62]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I'll say this. It will make you interesting. But also, I think, nearly alone. As loathsome as another round of Bush v Clinton would be, I'll bet that absent a Trump 3rd Party run they'll account for > 98% of the electorate.

With Trump in, Hillary could actually win an honest-to-god landslide.

And by refusing to vote for Trump I'd be a fake-independant-Independent. Gotta find me tribe somewhere.

ETA: I've always wondered how much the election results would vary if they took Party affiliation off the ballots. Gotta believe a large portion of the electorate cast their ballot based on letter alone.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I agree with you about the optics. People associate taking the 5th with the courtroom scene in Godfather II.

I kind of agree with you about Independents, except I don't believe there are any Independents. Twenty years ago I believed elections were about ignoring the thirds on the each side and winning the third in the middle. I don't believe there is a middle anymore, I think there are people who are every bit as aligned with the Dems or the GOP but who are so sickened by politics that they want to call themselves Independent and thus open-minded. But they aren't -- we've all become tribal and completely predictable. So Hillary's unfavorables among fake-independent-Republicans are going up, while fake-independent-Democrats are filing their nails as they're dragging the lake.

It eventually resolves to a 2-horse race, and at that point no matter how much you disdain your own guy the other side's guy is going to be ten times worse, and so the election result is close to predictable even this far out. The variance is very, very small, and as Rover has documented many times everything has to go the GOP's way to change the actual outcome.

There are certainly a lot of independents that lean one way or another and those folks aren't as likely to change their views and support. But there is still a slice of folks who do go back and forth between the parties at times. This group probably is gradually shrinking, as polarizing as our nation has become, but even a relatively small slice of these folks could make the difference in a close election. There are people who do vote D sometimes and R sometimes or else we'd have the same results all the time, taking into account turnout, changing demographics, and I just don't believe that's the case.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Yeb! can probably pull a relatively high Hispanic share just by sending the wife out on the campaign trail. Brown people are no smarter than white people and their attention span is 8 seconds long same as everybody else -- Mrs. Yeb! can fix that problem.

I think he's SOL with Hispanics. Real, reaaal hard to say the stance of 99.9% of your party isn't the same as your own. The Republican party simply put is at war with Hispanics. Time will tell if that works by driving out enough white voters to vote for them. Trotting out his Hispanic wife isn't going to save him as he seeks to represent a party that not only wants her out, but wants to deport Bush's born in the USA children as well!

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

or else we'd have the same results all the time, taking into account turnout, changing demographics, and I just don't believe that's the case.

I think the reason we don't have the same result every time is turnout. It seems like the default right now is D+5 on cycle and R+2 off cycle. Changing demographics is driving the R share down every election but by a very small amount, at most maybe about 0.5, so the real variance comes from turnout. Turnout volatility is maybe +/- 3 points for D and R, inversely correlated. So that leaves us with on-cycle elections wobbling between D+11 and R+1, and off-cycle elections wobbling between D+4 and R+8. All of that variance is explicable without assuming even one voter changes his vote.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Jesus how arrogant do you have to be than to assume you know what every voter thinks and feels and who they "truly" align with. You want to know why people dont like Liberals, it is elitist BS like that.

I am an Independent...I vote for the candidate who is closest to my beliefs. I am not a disgruntled Democrat or Blue Dog Republican.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Its the big game. Will Trump throw an interception? If so, Jeb's back in it. Trump is the hot fling...and Bush is the ole reliable significant other. Trump looks mighty fine...but if he acts out too much, they'll just have to go back to Jeb.

I still see Bush as the fall back (not Carson, not Rubio, not Cruz). After Trump, it comes down to second preference in a nominee. And I don't see folks in the largest GOP segment saying 'Trump is easily the best, but if not him then Rubio or Cruz would be good'.

I think he's SOL with Hispanics. Real, reaaal hard to say the stance of 99.9% of your party isn't the same as your own. The Republican party simply put is at war with Hispanics. Time will tell if that works by driving out enough white voters to vote for them. Trotting out his Hispanic wife isn't going to save him as he seeks to represent a party that not only wants her out, but wants to deport Bush's born in the USA children as well!

The good news for Jeb is that he doesn't have to win the Hispanics. He just needs to win enough of them to make the difference in FL, CO, AZ, NM and even OH or VA.

My vote is up for grabs, probably depending on whether the GOP nominee more resembles Trump or Kasich in social conscience.

So if Trump is in...you're voting Hillary?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Jesus how arrogant do you have to be than to assume you know what every voter thinks and feels and who they "truly" align with.

Tendencies, Handy, nothing more. You may personally be a Buddhist Tea Party Libertarian (120 million voters -- there's gotta be one). Whenever anybody talks about sociological behavior they're talking about statistical tendencies over large n. YMMV.

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Its the big game. Will Trump throw an interception?

He's been hitting linebackers between the numbers all over the place, and the home crowd seems to think that's great passing.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The good news for Jeb is that he doesn't have to win the Hispanics. He just needs to win enough of them to make the difference in FL, CO, AZ, NM and even OH or VA.

He has no prayer of winning enough of them to do jack sh !t. Mittens got crushed with Hispanics merely for this "self-deportation" comments. Jebbers! wants to end birthright citizenship AND most likely build a giant wall. His party is even worse. I feel you and Kep are putting too much faith in the guy, much like pundidiotry tends to do. All he can hope for is that they don't vote.

So, doing the math, ANY Gooper who's nominated, even Trump, should win the 60M votes that both McCain and Romney won. The problem is Dems will be ringing in a vote count closer to 70M holding everything steady + new Dem leaning voters entering the pool. While Bob, etc are correct that some people switch their vote, I feel we are way past the point where 5M-10M or more people will swing from voting for Obama last time to Jebbers!/Trump/Walker this time. That's a huge ideological leap.

So, to win (and yes I already know popular vote doesn't decide the Presidency) the GOP needs 10M people, or about 15% of the Dem coalition, to stay home. Not impossible, but that's asking a LOT, especially when the more indifferent voters (minorities) are being held up as what's wrong with this country by the GOP.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

He's been hitting linebackers between the numbers all over the place, and the home crowd seems to think that's great passing.

That's because he doesn't care which team wins, as long as he appears in the box score on every play.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Jebbers! wants to end birthright citizenship

Not true. Jeb is the one GOP candidate defending birthright citizenship as a Constitutional right. That's what makes him the strongest candidate if he can get the nomination. The issue for Yeb! is whether he can get the nomination when he holds a view that is out of alignment with Republican activists who tend to be overrepresented in the primaries and who dominate the caucuses.

For better or worse Jeb has staked out the territory of sanity on immigration -- he admits there are big problems but doesn't want to bulldoze families and throw out the overwhelming majority of good people who are here just to try to snag the American Dream even if it means sneaking over the border, because they are running from violence, chaos, and poverty back home. He's actually making the right distinction. Now, he may be doing it simply because of the undeniable demographic math, but who cares -- Lincoln didn't love black people and the Emancipation Proclamation is a political document, but bravo for amoral process moral result.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So if Trump is in...you're voting Hillary?

No doubt. Sloppy record-keeping notwithstanding, Hillary is still ten times the man that The Donald is, not to mention a more serious and dignified leader. I think I'd actually vote for her more easily than some of the more full-bore liberals around here would.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

No doubt. Sloppy record-keeping notwithstanding, Hillary is still ten times the man that The Donald is, not to mention a more serious and dignified leader. I think I'd actually vote for her more easily than some of the more full-bore liberals around here would.

More easily than I, anyway. When I pull the level for Hillary it's going to be the most reluctant vote I've cast. Anything to keep the White Walkers at bay.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

More easily than I, anyway. When I pull the level for Hillary it's going to be the most reluctant vote I've cast. Anything to keep the White Walkers at bay.

If they were both nominated, I see it as two a battle between problematic personalities, but Hillary's communication difficulties are hiding a smart, capable leader while Trump's are masking an insanely narcissistic madman. I'm certainly hoping we'd reject the Lex Luthor campaign (wait, is he fully bald under there?). If Trump were elected... I don't know.

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

That's because he doesn't care which team wins, as long as he appears in the box score on every play.

Good point, Kep, but how do you explain the home crowd's cheers?

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Not true. Jeb is the one GOP candidate defending birthright citizenship as a Constitutional right. That's what makes him the strongest candidate if he can get the nomination. The issue for Yeb! is whether he can get the nomination when he holds a view that is out of alignment with Republican activists who tend to be overrepresented in the primaries and who dominate the caucuses.

For better or worse Jeb has staked out the territory of sanity on immigration -- he admits there are big problems but doesn't want to bulldoze families and throw out the overwhelming majority of good people who are here just to try to snag the American Dream even if it means sneaking over the border, because they are running from violence, chaos, and poverty back home. He's actually making the right distinction. Now, he may be doing it simply because of the undeniable demographic math, but who cares -- Lincoln didn't love black people and the Emancipation Proclamation is a political document, but bravo for amoral process moral result.

Apologies, he just wants to crack down on "anchor babies" which is the same thing only he wouldn't pursue a Constitutional amendment. A regular Profile in Courage there...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-birthright-citizenship_55d51071e4b055a6dab2e315


"Jeb Bush said while he supports granting birthright citizenship to the children of immigrants, the policy needs "greater enforcement" to prevent "abuse."



Appearing on Bill Bennett's radio show Wednesday, the former Florida governor and current Republican presidential hopeful said he backs cracking down on potential exploitation of the immigration system.



"If there's fraud or if there's abuse, if people are bringing, pregnant women are coming in to have babies simply because they can do it, then there ought to be greater enforcement," he said. "That's the legitimate side of this. Better enforcement so that you don't have these, you know, 'anchor babies,' as they're described, coming into the country."


Bush made similar remarks Tuesday, calling birthright citizenship a "constitutionally protected right," but adding that there should be a "targeted way" to "solve abuses, of people coming into the country so their children can become citizens."
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He's screwed. Then he tried to clumsily explain he really only meant Asians.