Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I didn't know Dems in MN even had to run ads. I thought they won by default.

That's how Dayton's re-election campaign appears to be working it. In 2014, there were 30 gubernatorial debates. This year, Dayton's campaign limited it to five. I've seen very few ads run by his camp, but third party money has spent some money on attack ads against his main opponent in the past two or three weeks. Come to think of it, with exception to the debates, that's been much the same plan for Franken. Of course, McFadden is a weak opponent, so there's that.

I voted this morning, in and out real quick. The only issue I had was that the voting machine didn't want to accept my ballot into its automated feeder.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Exactly.

But I was just struck by the juxtaposition last night. I saw some people from the progressive end of the spectrum talking about many of the same things Rover and Kepler and others on here have been repeating. The Republicans have all these defects, and can't be trusted to govern. They have this tiny approval rating. The only way they can save their party is to engage in party-wide introspection. "And, in other news, it looks like the Republicans are going to hold the majority in the House, take back the majority in the Senate, and hold a majority of the governorships."

W.T.F.? I'm not sure the Republicans are the only ones who need a little party introspection (which they certainly do). Sounds like the Democrats could use another confab and put on the agenda as question #1, "Why is it that we can't consistently beat these cretins again?"

Nothing like that needed. Senate will merely reverse itself in two years regardless as Goopers in NH, WI, PA, FL, and IL go down. With that and the Presidency in hand there's nothing to worry about. I'd be more concerned about the GOP's continuing to rely on an aging population overrepresenting itself in mid-term elections as a basis for success. That formula already isn't working in Presidential years, and one has to wonder how much longer it will work in non-Presidential ones.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

That's how Dayton's re-election campaign appears to be working it. In 2014, there were 30 gubernatorial debates. This year, Dayton's campaign limited it to five. I've seen very few ads run by his camp, but third party money has spent some money on attack ads against his main opponent in the past two or three weeks. Come to think of it, with exception to the debates, that's been much the same plan for Franken. Of course, McFadden is a weak opponent, so there's that.

I voted this morning, in and out real quick. The only issue I had was that the voting machine didn't want to accept my ballot into its automated feeder.

For debating 5 is enough. They're all covered and it's all dog and pony show anyway. I watched Franken and McFadden go at it. Still waiting for McFadden to tell me what he's actually going to do. Too late now.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Can you say, "Death to all but METAL!!!!" \m/

http://download.gameblog.fr/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/137752.gif

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Read the article on the last page, that is why they are winning. The GOP is gonna take the Senate not because they are favored by the people, but because the other party isnt favored by the people.

Some days you don't win; the other guy loses.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Nothing like that needed. Senate will merely reverse itself in two years regardless as Goopers in NH, WI, PA, FL, and IL go down. With that and the Presidency in hand there's nothing to worry about. I'd be more concerned about the GOP's continuing to rely on an aging population overrepresenting itself in mid-term elections as a basis for success. That formula already isn't working in Presidential years, and one has to wonder how much longer it will work in non-Presidential ones.

I've come to believe that Presidential elections come down to the charisma of the candidate. Doesn't matter what party they represent, or how their party is doing in congressional or state elections. We elect the most charismatic, and not necessarily the better qualified, of the two candidates.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I've come to believe that Presidential elections come down to the charisma of the candidate. Doesn't matter what party they represent, or how their party is doing in congressional or state elections. We elect the most charismatic, and not necessarily the better qualified, of the two candidates.

Don't forget they have to be tall and with good hair.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

As I'm just stating a fact that both sides engage in gerrymandering. The fact Reps may have an edge right now in some states hardly means that Dems haven't gerrynamdered plenty also. The way the system is set up, there is every incentive to gerrymander, for both parties.

This is absolutely true.

The good news is since neither party dominates gerrymandering there would be no single party obstruction in getting rid of it (compared with voter suppression which works to one party's advantage).

The bad news is since gerrymandering protects incumbents, the Members of both parties tacitly agree to let it slide for the opponent since their own nest is feathered. There is really no way to ever get rid of it. It's like executive compensation -- nobody watches the watchmen.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Don't forget they have to be tall and with good hair.

James Madison could never be elected today. One of the two most important intellectual contributors to the Founding (with Jefferson), but he was 5' 4", so no soap.

 

[jmh]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I've come to believe that Presidential elections come down to the charisma of the candidate. Doesn't matter what party they represent, or how their party is doing in congressional or state elections. We elect the most charismatic, and not necessarily the better qualified, of the two candidates.

Thanks, television.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

David Letterman last night:

“This is what happens when we have the midterm elections. The Republicans, of course, have turned against Obama, and the Democrats have also turned against Obama. That’s a lonely, lonely gig being president, ladies and gentlemen.

“Take a look at this: gas under $3 a gallon – under $3 a gallon. Unemployment under 6%, whoever thought? Stock market breaking records every day. No wonder the guy is so unpopular.”

Fear sells and that's what's driving this election. Ebola, and ISIS. If Obama's administration had been competent about either the Dems probably would not be losing the Senate today.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I voted early by mail, as I got tired of standing line 2+ hours at the precinct while little old ladies try to figure out how to check peoples' names off the voter list. Seriously, they are nice as anything, but the line moved painfully slow, and it had happened a few elections in a row. I prefer going to vote on election day, but not when I have to stand in line that long.

Noted and logged.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Hey lets do our predictions

Key (Close) Senate:

GOP: IA, CO, AK, GA, LA, AR, KY, KS (either the R or the I caucuses with the Rs)

Dem: NC

Overall: R +8 for a 53-47 advantage.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Here is the thing I find kind of funny.

What we know from Rover, Kepler, Rachel Maddow and the like is that Republicans are racists. They're crazy. They're are morbidly old. They are hypocrites. They're obstructionists, and incapable of governing. They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme. And, something like only 25-30% of the population has a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and their policies.

Let's take these one at a time.


> Republicans are racists.

Republicans deliberately employ racist dog whistles to appeal to a subset of their base. Whether that's 1% or 21% is anybody's guess. Put it this way: among the two major parties, 98% of white racists are Republican just as 100% of black racists are Democratic.

> They're crazy.

Some of the Teahadists are crazy. Depends what the operational test is. How about: "Muslims are carrying Ebola across the Arizona border." Let's say 10% of Rs believe this. Those people are crazy.

> They're are morbidly old.

They are older, but not morbidly so. Now, they're morbidly obese... you may have something there.

> They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme.

They are stacked up pretty high against the right side of the ant farm. Is it possible for them to spill over the side? Yeah, probably.

> 25-30%

It's probably lower than that. Congressional Republicans have something like 9% approval. But Congressional Democrats have 13% approval -- they're hated as well.

> They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?

They're running on home turf in a second term midterm with an unpopular president. That's how you suck and still win, as long as your opponent lets you.

The Dems should definitely look at their inability to motivate voters. You know what motivates people? Fear and hope. The GOP larded on the fear; the Dems did nothing. Until they learn the lesson of 2008 that when they embrace unabashedly liberal policies they win, they will continue to lose midterms. They aren't giving people anything to vote for, and that cedes the field to the bad guys.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

This is absolutely true.

The good news is since neither party dominates gerrymandering there would be no single party obstruction in getting rid of it (compared with voter suppression which works to one party's advantage).

The bad news is since gerrymandering protects incumbents, the Members of both parties tacitly agree to let it slide for the opponent since their own nest is feathered. There is really no way to ever get rid of it. It's like executive compensation -- nobody watches the watchmen.

Agreed. And of course there is gerrymandering at various levels, some very blatant, with the crazy districts we've seen maps of, but some that is a lot more subtle and there is a gray area as to what is gerrymandering and what is a reasonable redraw of of district lines based on relevant factors. I don't like it, but I'm resigned to the fact that it's not likely to be fixed and it does seem to be abused both directions so at least there's some very rough justice in that.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Noted and logged.

Yup, that sounds like how things are. I always thought it'd be a fun thing to do every couple years if election day wasn't a work day or I was eventually retired or something. There is something a little magical about being at the polling place and seeing folks come in and vote, even in today's toxic political environment.

 

[JF_Gophers]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

So we all agree the main people who won't be winners on election day are the voters themselves.

Yay for corrupt and broken system!

 

[MattS]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Noted and logged.

The lack of training is something I can agree with but the rest is just hand waving at a problem. Old people can't use technology...got it. Oh and the pay isn't $1000 per day...so the dregs of society do the job. Right.

On the other hand, I do believe that Election Day should be a national holiday. Period.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

...and write in Mel Pearson for governor

"None of the Above" was the correct choice for MI gov. Should've written in Mel for the lulz, but I bet none of the fossils working my precinct would know him or get the joke.

 

[MattS]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

but some that is a lot more subtle and there is a gray area as to what is gerrymandering and what is a reasonable redraw of of district lines based on relevant factors. I don't like it, but I'm resigned to the fact that it's not likely to be fixed and it does seem to be abused both directions so at least there's some very rough justice in that.

This is really the tough one to sort out. I live in Tompkins county NY which is a very, very blue county in the midst of a mostly Red area of NYS. So in the NYS Assembly district they divide up the area so all of Tompkins county and a portion of Cortland county that is blue are together. That way it's only one district that is a D stronghold and not two that might be D strongholds.

However, in the NYS Senate they have divided up Tompkins county so that the concentration of D's is spread out over multiple districts to dilute the D votes. Thus making those districts much harder for a D to win in. And for the Congress they lump Tompkins into a highly red area where the D's are so outnumbered that there is very little chance of winning. I guess it comes down to its better to give up 1 out of 150 Assembly districts, and than give up 1 out of 63 Senate districts, or 1 out of 27 Congressional districts.

And for fun here is the nicely gerrymandered NYS Senate district I live in.... NYS Sentate 51st District