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Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Looks like the RNC has sent out the message to scare their media outlets into getting off their keisters.

It would be tremendous butthurt if the GOP blew it yet again. The Supremes just upheld voter suppression in NC, so even they are getting into the act.
Click to expand...
I don't follow other state races that much but if you ever thought the repubs were going to take over the senate I'll have what you are smoking.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

walrus said:
I don't follow other state races that much but if you ever thought the repubs were going to take over the senate I'll have what you are smoking.
Click to expand...

?

Currently stand at 57% likelihood on 538, and have been somewhere between 55-65 all year. Are you sandbagging? Because if not you need to read up on the races.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Looks like the RNC has sent out the message to scare their media outlets into getting off their keisters.

It would be tremendous butthurt if the GOP blew it yet again. The Supremes just upheld voter suppression in NC, so even they are getting into the act.
Click to expand...


First Read has an on point article about how the pollsters have no idea who's going to show up. Really, what's changed since two months ago? Filter out polls moving due to changing the likely voter model and what are we left with? Roberts in deep doo-doo in Kansas against a guy who nobody knows where he'll caucus, Braley slipping from a lead to a toss up race in Iowa, and some possible movement in South Dakota as former Senator turned Independent and ABSCAM hero starts moving up in the polls enough to make things interesting.

Other than that, there's been no serious movement one way or the other.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
?

Currently stand at 57% likelihood on 538, and have been somewhere between 55-65 all year. Are you sandbagging? Because if not you need to read up on the races.
Click to expand...

I simply don't believe the polls.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Rover said:
First Read has an on point article about how the pollsters have no idea who's going to show up. Really, what's changed since two months ago? Filter out polls moving due to changing the likely voter model and what are we left with? Roberts in deep doo-doo in Kansas against a guy who nobody knows where he'll caucus, Braley slipping from a lead to a toss up race in Iowa, and some possible movement in South Dakota as former Senator turned Independent and ABSCAM hero starts moving up in the polls enough to make things interesting.

Other than that, there's been no serious movement one way or the other.
Click to expand...

I think we've talked about this before, but IMHO if Grimes was going to win she would have to be opening up daylight by now. We laugh about Mitch but he's a good campaigner with an experienced campaign staff. I think he's going to overperform the polls on election day because models (rightly) don't try to factor in the "grind out the win" factor.

Other than that the KS circus is the only major change in the last 2 months, and that won't change the lead, only the margin.

And all of this is why I think it's still going to be GOP +6 or +7 and control. The map was always so bad for the Dems that only a couple Christine O'Donnells could save them. But it is nice to see them holding tight with every outlet all but burning Obama in effigy.
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Welp. No way to argue with that. ;)
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Some outfit at UNH did a poll on Gov race in Maine, they posted the results in local rags online site. They had pics of all 3 candidates. The Dem pic was airbrushed, smiling, looked like a senior pic. The other 2, frowns, looked like they might have just seen a ghost. Not sure who dug up the pics but it was so obvious it was pathetic. People *****ed so much in the comments section they changed the pics. It seems everyone has an agenda
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

walrus said:
Some outfit at UNH did a poll on Gov race in Maine, they posted the results in local rags online site. They had pics of all 3 candidates. The Dem pic was airbrushed, smiling, looked like a senior pic. The other 2, frowns, looked like they might have just seen a ghost. Not sure who dug up the pics but it was so obvious it was pathetic. People *****ed so much in the comments section they changed the pics. It seems everyone has an agenda
Click to expand...

There are counterfeit 50s so I reject all currency.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Looks like the RNC has sent out the message to scare their media outlets into getting off their keisters.

It would be tremendous butthurt if the GOP blew it yet again. The Supremes just upheld voter suppression in NC, so even they are getting into the act.
Click to expand...

I'd like to retract the last part. SCOTUS just struck down voter suppression in WI and TX. Any lawyers here? I'd love to know whether there's a consensus on the standard they are driving towards.

Am I missing something, or would a free, universal, federal voter ID card that it was mandatory for polling places to recognize solve this whole problem? (Not required of citizens, since other forms of ID are recognized, but a fall back if you don't have a driver's license etc).

The right to vote is pretty important. Maybe we should put as much thought into it as say Amazon gift cards?
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

In AZ news, the governor's race may not be quite as tight as previously thought, as Doug Ducey, the Rep candidate opens up a ten point lead in the latest poll.

Maybe the Democrat candidate accepting a campaign contribution from Saddam Hussein's lobbyist has something to do with it!
http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/10/saddam-hussein-lobbyist-donated-to-fred-duval-campaign/
Probably not, but that was too entertaining to not post.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
I'd like to retract the last part. SCOTUS just struck down voter suppression in WI and TX. Any lawyers here? I'd love to know whether there's a consensus on the standard they are driving towards.

Am I missing something, or would a free, universal, federal voter ID card that it was mandatory for polling places to recognize solve this whole problem?
Click to expand...

It's sounds like they simply blocked implementation of the law pending their decision.

edit: for the WI law, that is. The decision on the TX law wasn't made by the SCOTUS.
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Bob Gray said:
The liberal Court at it once again. They are on quite a run.
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ROTFLMAO

You've got the Chief Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito. All a bunch of liberals that group. Hell, Kennedy the swing vote was appointed by a Repub. As far as us liberals are concerned were worried about making sure Ginsburg is replaced with an equivalent. Otherwise the Court swings full derp.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
I'd like to retract the last part. SCOTUS just struck down voter suppression in WI and TX. Any lawyers here? I'd love to know whether there's a consensus on the standard they are driving towards.

Am I missing something, or would a free, universal, federal voter ID card that it was mandatory for polling places to recognize solve this whole problem? (Not required of citizens, since other forms of ID are recognized, but a fall back if you don't have a driver's license etc).

The right to vote is pretty important. Maybe we should put as much thought into it as say Amazon gift cards?
Click to expand...
Problem is, Obama would issue cards to anyone and everyone, whether they actually had the right to vote or not. I don't trust the feds to not play games with something like this.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

ScoobyDoo said:
ROTFLMAO

You've got the Chief Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito. All a bunch of liberals that group. Hell, Kennedy the swing vote was appointed by a Repub. As far as us liberals are concerned were worried about making sure Ginsburg is replaced with an equivalent. Otherwise the Court swings full derp.
Click to expand...
They seem to have gone full derp, in the liberal direction. Kennedy being appointed by a Rep is just another example of the Reps' failure to appoint justices who reflect their views the way the Dems very successfully do.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Bob Gray said:
They seem to have gone full derp, in the liberal direction. Kennedy being appointed by a Rep is just another example of the Reps' failure to appoint justices who reflect their views the way the Dems very successfully do.
Click to expand...

Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Scalia prove otherwise.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Bob Gray said:
Problem is, Obama would issue cards to anyone and everyone, whether they actually had the right to vote or not. I don't trust the feds to not play games with something like this.
Click to expand...

I've got some sympathy with the RWNJ who thinks it'd a slippery slope to barcoding us. (Although my God the configuration manager in me knows how much easier everything would be if we had RFID... NO! Step away from that thought...!)

In that case, devolve it to the states. Universal, FREE voter ID issued by the states to every voter. In addition, the state can still accept any other form of ID (or none if it wishes) at the polls. If the state has not met the requirement of providing the necessary free universal voter ID by 90 days before the election then they are unable to bar people with no ID from the polling place.

The way it stands now, there are about a dozen documented cases of voter fraud every election, and in response the GOP is trying to make it difficult for hundreds of thousands if not more of voters to vote in an obvious attempt to steal elections. That's just pure evil. Where are all those righty libertarian groups screaming about how the state is infringing on a fundamental right of citizenship?

Or does it turn out that was all just self-serving BS the whole time?
 
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