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Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
- Thread starter Kepler
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
I always thought you and Scooby might be the same person...
Oh no
Roverdamus just guaranteed a widespread sweep of R seats in Congress
I always thought you and Scooby might be the same person...
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
True, cept...
Valuations move based on expectations. If China's trade is not down, China and Asia continue to grow at multiple times that of the US - then we'd expect China's valuations to bounce back just fine.
Oh and the other snag...our valuations are likely down as well which to me as an investor and American is more important. After all, it is a trade war.
True, cept...
Valuations move based on expectations. If China's trade is not down, China and Asia continue to grow at multiple times that of the US - then we'd expect China's valuations to bounce back just fine.
Oh and the other snag...our valuations are likely down as well which to me as an investor and American is more important. After all, it is a trade war.
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
T-Mobile and Ericsson make a $3.5billion deal for a 5G network.
T-Mobile and Ericsson make a $3.5billion deal for a 5G network.
Wisko McBadgerton
Teaching you how to Bucky.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
I agree valuations move based on expectations. After that I'm not following you. In this fight right now the money is all on the US winning. As I said, Chinese valuations are down 20-25% on the year. That's a bear market. You may expect them to bounce back, but right now the market doesn't, which is why the market is selling. If the market expected bounce back, money would flow into Chinese stocks to reap the profits. It's not, in fact it's quite the contrary.
Money has been flowing into US stocks including those with large Chinese markets. Why is that? It would seem it's because expectations are that the US companies won't be hurt by whatever is going to happen and Chinese companies will be. That is what investors are betting right now and have been most of the year.
If the market was Vegas, China would be 11-2 dogs in this fight so far.
I agree valuations move based on expectations. After that I'm not following you. In this fight right now the money is all on the US winning. As I said, Chinese valuations are down 20-25% on the year. That's a bear market. You may expect them to bounce back, but right now the market doesn't, which is why the market is selling. If the market expected bounce back, money would flow into Chinese stocks to reap the profits. It's not, in fact it's quite the contrary.
Money has been flowing into US stocks including those with large Chinese markets. Why is that? It would seem it's because expectations are that the US companies won't be hurt by whatever is going to happen and Chinese companies will be. That is what investors are betting right now and have been most of the year.
If the market was Vegas, China would be 11-2 dogs in this fight so far.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Did I see that China's trade is up? How often does the market go against actual results?
You short China and I'll buy it. Deal? Sounds like a genius play based on your perspective.
Which is the universal comment made by the right whenever we start an idiotic, unilateral war. Sooo...
1) Why in the world would China give in to our demands? Have they ever? And the core of Trump's tariffs have had nothing to do with applying pressure - coal and steel. He's inherently protectionist and wants to prop up dying industries.
2) Wars are nearly always bad. Do you really not think the tariffs have stifled our own valuations? Most of the rest of us don't care about China's success or failure. We want the US to do well.
Reuters: More than 60 U.S. industry groups are launching a coalition on Wednesday to take the tariff fight public
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-business-readies-public-fight-idUSKCN1LS0B6
Did I see that China's trade is up? How often does the market go against actual results?
You short China and I'll buy it. Deal? Sounds like a genius play based on your perspective.
Which is the universal comment made by the right whenever we start an idiotic, unilateral war. Sooo...
1) Why in the world would China give in to our demands? Have they ever? And the core of Trump's tariffs have had nothing to do with applying pressure - coal and steel. He's inherently protectionist and wants to prop up dying industries.
2) Wars are nearly always bad. Do you really not think the tariffs have stifled our own valuations? Most of the rest of us don't care about China's success or failure. We want the US to do well.
Reuters: More than 60 U.S. industry groups are launching a coalition on Wednesday to take the tariff fight public
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-business-readies-public-fight-idUSKCN1LS0B6
Wisko McBadgerton
Teaching you how to Bucky.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Why is China trade up? It has been widely suggested that it's because of US orders being accelerated ahead of possible tariff action. In other words, Chinese vendors are shipping next quarter's orders this quarter. (The US accounts for nearly 25% of Chinese exports btw) What do you think happens next quarter when US inventories of Chinese goods are overly high, whether tariffs are imposed or not? Presumably orders drop, and so do Chinese exports and profits. You seem to be ignoring this fact in favor of just repeating "Hey! Chinese trade is up!" when in reality it appears that it is up only by artificial means.
True, the Dow is flat from it's Jan. high but is up off the Feb. sell off by double digits and is up double digits from one year ago. The S&P and the Nasdaq are up around 8% and 12% YTD and way up off their Feb. lows and year ago levels. If you personally want to buy China, go for it. It's contrarian and high risk, but obviously that is accompanied by high reward if the rest of the market is wrong and you're right. ( I can tell you China's $200b+ in textile exports is going to continue to decline sharply as US apparel retailers are desperate to get out of China no matter what happens.) With the massive growth in US markets over the last two years it's difficult to say that US markets are appreciably undervalued at the moment. One would normally think there's a downward correction somewhere in the offing, but it hasn't appeared yet and futures are mostly positive. You maybe right and one should just buy! buy! buy! everything...
You incorrectly place me in the position of defending a trade war. I'm not. I'm merely observing the facts of what is going on in the markets given the current state of affairs under the threat of a trade war. And the markets are currently betting that the US will do well and China will be hurt near term. I have no idea if China will blink on US trade. Although I would suggest China is not the same China of 30 years ago. They're largely capitalists now and maintaining power is much more related to making money than rolling tanks over people, so whatever action they feel makes them the most money long term is probably a good way to bet they'll go. In any case, whether you or I personally think China will blink or fight to the last man is irrelevant to where the money is going. And despite all the political spin around the economy, the money doesn't seem to be very worried about the US at the moment
Why is China trade up? It has been widely suggested that it's because of US orders being accelerated ahead of possible tariff action. In other words, Chinese vendors are shipping next quarter's orders this quarter. (The US accounts for nearly 25% of Chinese exports btw) What do you think happens next quarter when US inventories of Chinese goods are overly high, whether tariffs are imposed or not? Presumably orders drop, and so do Chinese exports and profits. You seem to be ignoring this fact in favor of just repeating "Hey! Chinese trade is up!" when in reality it appears that it is up only by artificial means.
True, the Dow is flat from it's Jan. high but is up off the Feb. sell off by double digits and is up double digits from one year ago. The S&P and the Nasdaq are up around 8% and 12% YTD and way up off their Feb. lows and year ago levels. If you personally want to buy China, go for it. It's contrarian and high risk, but obviously that is accompanied by high reward if the rest of the market is wrong and you're right. ( I can tell you China's $200b+ in textile exports is going to continue to decline sharply as US apparel retailers are desperate to get out of China no matter what happens.) With the massive growth in US markets over the last two years it's difficult to say that US markets are appreciably undervalued at the moment. One would normally think there's a downward correction somewhere in the offing, but it hasn't appeared yet and futures are mostly positive. You maybe right and one should just buy! buy! buy! everything...
You incorrectly place me in the position of defending a trade war. I'm not. I'm merely observing the facts of what is going on in the markets given the current state of affairs under the threat of a trade war. And the markets are currently betting that the US will do well and China will be hurt near term. I have no idea if China will blink on US trade. Although I would suggest China is not the same China of 30 years ago. They're largely capitalists now and maintaining power is much more related to making money than rolling tanks over people, so whatever action they feel makes them the most money long term is probably a good way to bet they'll go. In any case, whether you or I personally think China will blink or fight to the last man is irrelevant to where the money is going. And despite all the political spin around the economy, the money doesn't seem to be very worried about the US at the moment
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Trump just cut corporate taxes an incredible 40% and is pouring 7% more government spending into the economy. And the markets can't even get back to their January highs?
I'm not 'incorrectly putting you in the position of defending a trade war.' You're doing it yourself by saying that the US will win a such a war. And you're mistaken - everyone's a loser, esp the American consumer.
Trump just cut corporate taxes an incredible 40% and is pouring 7% more government spending into the economy. And the markets can't even get back to their January highs?
I'm not 'incorrectly putting you in the position of defending a trade war.' You're doing it yourself by saying that the US will win a such a war. And you're mistaken - everyone's a loser, esp the American consumer.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Sooo...if the Chinese public doesn't like President Xi's trade policy, they have the option to vote him out? Launch a public protest? Vote out his allies on the Politburo?
While I'm sure you'll object, you sound like a Trump Humper on this one, completely disregarding logic in order to construct an argument that conforms to Trump's views. You aren't Paul Ryan by any chance, are you? 
Sooo...if the Chinese public doesn't like President Xi's trade policy, they have the option to vote him out? Launch a public protest? Vote out his allies on the Politburo?
While I'm sure you'll object, you sound like a Trump Humper on this one, completely disregarding logic in order to construct an argument that conforms to Trump's views. You aren't Paul Ryan by any chance, are you? Wisko McBadgerton
Teaching you how to Bucky.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Markets generally advance or decline ahead of government policy changes, not after. Something like a tax cut is usually priced in well before it happens. US markets are still advancing overall on positive economic results though.
Where did I state it's my opinion that the US would win a trade war? I have stated two facts (now for the third time) a.) Money has continued to flow out of Chinese markets. b.) Money has continued to flow into US markets. That's basically it. The explanation for why that is, is open to interpretation. It may be that investors don't believe there will be more tariffs. It may be that investors think US companies will survive short term supply issues just fine and a deal will be reached before it becomes a crisis. It may be that investors think that somehow a deal will just be reached up front. What does seem unlikely that INVESTORS think (not me) the US economy is going to tank in the near term. As if they did, they would be selling US markets. There are other reasons one could surmise. That investors are all stupid and have no idea what's really going on is one.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Uh huh. Shouldn't we be white hot right now? Corporate taxes are dirt cheap. Taxes for the rich are dirt cheap. The money should be pouring into the treasury. Instead the DEFICT is exploding and the middle class and poor are still making **** for wages.
Thanks, Obama.
Uh huh. Shouldn't we be white hot right now? Corporate taxes are dirt cheap. Taxes for the rich are dirt cheap. The money should be pouring into the treasury. Instead the DEFICT is exploding and the middle class and poor are still making **** for wages.
Thanks, Obama.
Wisko McBadgerton
Teaching you how to Bucky.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
I'm no expert but I have been to HK and all over the Mainland numerous times over the years. One thing is true. If Xi falls out of favor among his comrades he would be out of power in 10 minutes. There's a dozen guys around him maneuvering for the job and the power every day. Even Trump can't be removed solely on the basis of not liking him for a couple years yet. (Obviously for real legal reasons he can be) To think guys like Jack Ma or He Xianjiang (Midea Group) don't wield enormous political influence would be an error. If their companies tank in a trade war they're going to have something to say. So while the public may have a great deal less to say than in the US, Xi's power is only there as long as he remains on the right side of a bunch of high end politicos and rich people. They can remove him or even quite literally, have him shot, if things were to go badly for China.
Sooo...if the Chinese public doesn't like President Xi's trade policy, they have the option to vote him out? Launch a public protest? Vote out his allies on the Politburo?
I'm no expert but I have been to HK and all over the Mainland numerous times over the years. One thing is true. If Xi falls out of favor among his comrades he would be out of power in 10 minutes. There's a dozen guys around him maneuvering for the job and the power every day. Even Trump can't be removed solely on the basis of not liking him for a couple years yet. (Obviously for real legal reasons he can be) To think guys like Jack Ma or He Xianjiang (Midea Group) don't wield enormous political influence would be an error. If their companies tank in a trade war they're going to have something to say. So while the public may have a great deal less to say than in the US, Xi's power is only there as long as he remains on the right side of a bunch of high end politicos and rich people. They can remove him or even quite literally, have him shot, if things were to go badly for China.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
For political reasons, Trump could be removed. Impeachment is always political, though if the ruling party has any sense of morality, and there is strong evidence that a sitting POTUS has committed a "high crime", we'd all like to think they would do the right thing.
For now, we simply wait for the Mueller Report.
For political reasons, Trump could be removed. Impeachment is always political, though if the ruling party has any sense of morality, and there is strong evidence that a sitting POTUS has committed a "high crime", we'd all like to think they would do the right thing.
For now, we simply wait for the Mueller Report.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Forgive my recollections, but I don't ever remember a Chinese leader being shot since the Communists took over. Furthermore, Jack Ma and crew may have some input but again unless the military is behind those guys I don't see them telling Xi what to do. In fact, again by the limits of my recollections, has there ever been a time when a Chinese leader didn't retire or die in office as opposed to being forced out? Mao, Deng, Jiang, Hu, Xi...am I missing anybody.
It sounds like the threat to Xi is practically non-existent relative to the pressure on Trump, who if his party gets smoked this year will be under tremendous pressure to change tactics in time for 2020. In the meantime the Chinese have enough reserves to make everybody whole if they wanted to for a couple of years and just wait out the democratic process in America. For all the talk of capitalistic China, it is still a state planned economy and you don't do things against the government's wishes. There's little comparison between the two.
Forgive my recollections, but I don't ever remember a Chinese leader being shot since the Communists took over. Furthermore, Jack Ma and crew may have some input but again unless the military is behind those guys I don't see them telling Xi what to do. In fact, again by the limits of my recollections, has there ever been a time when a Chinese leader didn't retire or die in office as opposed to being forced out? Mao, Deng, Jiang, Hu, Xi...am I missing anybody.
It sounds like the threat to Xi is practically non-existent relative to the pressure on Trump, who if his party gets smoked this year will be under tremendous pressure to change tactics in time for 2020. In the meantime the Chinese have enough reserves to make everybody whole if they wanted to for a couple of years and just wait out the democratic process in America. For all the talk of capitalistic China, it is still a state planned economy and you don't do things against the government's wishes. There's little comparison between the two.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
You gave credence to the concept that a decline in Chinese markets and minor, jittery increases in US markets signaled a US trade war victory over China. "If the market was Vegas, China would be 11-2 dogs in this fight so far."
The US is borrowing, the economy is juiced in the short term, and therefore the markets are a terrible indicator. S&P, Nasdaq do not reflect the tariffs' long term marketplace damage being done in the US.
You gave credence to the concept that a decline in Chinese markets and minor, jittery increases in US markets signaled a US trade war victory over China. "If the market was Vegas, China would be 11-2 dogs in this fight so far."
The US is borrowing, the economy is juiced in the short term, and therefore the markets are a terrible indicator. S&P, Nasdaq do not reflect the tariffs' long term marketplace damage being done in the US.
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Always remember: Obama stated, on PBS, that this economy would take a "magic wand". Obama DID NOT create it. https://www.real.video/5834103297001
Always remember: Obama stated, on PBS, that this economy would take a "magic wand". Obama DID NOT create it. https://www.real.video/5834103297001
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!
Does Flaggy know he's lying, or is he just that stupid?
Does Flaggy know he's lying, or is he just that stupid?
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