FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Federal Reserve. Tells you all you need to know.
Federal Reserve. Tells you all you need to know.
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Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
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unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Thankfully we do not have a number of large financial institutions on the brink of insolvency. Remember, Bear went under back in march of that year. Lehman and wamu collapsed later that september, but the financial contagion from the housing market had been spreading for a long time. Money markets also went haywire in august of 2007, but this probably didn't get too much attention.
I am "paying attention" now, but am not going to rush to sell things. The market seems to be behaving like it is topping, but this is my own research and not a sure thing. Thankfully I am short a fan favorite, and said favorite released some devastating Q4 numbers ( their conference call was even worse). A clear case of obfuscation, and earning management - perhaps the next Enron.
Thankfully we do not have a number of large financial institutions on the brink of insolvency. Remember, Bear went under back in march of that year. Lehman and wamu collapsed later that september, but the financial contagion from the housing market had been spreading for a long time. Money markets also went haywire in august of 2007, but this probably didn't get too much attention.
I am "paying attention" now, but am not going to rush to sell things. The market seems to be behaving like it is topping, but this is my own research and not a sure thing. Thankfully I am short a fan favorite, and said favorite released some devastating Q4 numbers ( their conference call was even worse). A clear case of obfuscation, and earning management - perhaps the next Enron.
unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
The biggest clue is if after 3 raises if they do nothing. The only "leading" indicator I uncovered in my reading that fortells lack of confidence in the broader economy.
Other than that, don't really listen to them.
The biggest clue is if after 3 raises if they do nothing. The only "leading" indicator I uncovered in my reading that fortells lack of confidence in the broader economy.
Other than that, don't really listen to them.
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Don't you find it a bit odd, under Obama, they'd do nothing? And then, once a Republican has been elected, hike hike hike?
Don't you find it a bit odd, under Obama, they'd do nothing? And then, once a Republican has been elected, hike hike hike?
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Stocks fluctuate, next question.
Stocks fluctuate, next question.
The rate was kept functionally zero to finance the debt and to pump money into Wall Vegas.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
it was kept at zero to stimulate the economy after the great recession. It's been successful and rates have been gradually going up. Obviously they can't stay that low forever, especially with near full employment and now tax cuts thrown into the mix.
I was listening to a London-based economist this morning. He said that Trump should have kept Yellen for another term, which would have been the typical move, and that she was the best fed chair since Volcker. He pretty much thought the gradual interest rate hikes have been handled perfectly and they should stay on this course.
it was kept at zero to stimulate the economy after the great recession. It's been successful and rates have been gradually going up. Obviously they can't stay that low forever, especially with near full employment and now tax cuts thrown into the mix.
I was listening to a London-based economist this morning. He said that Trump should have kept Yellen for another term, which would have been the typical move, and that she was the best fed chair since Volcker. He pretty much thought the gradual interest rate hikes have been handled perfectly and they should stay on this course.
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D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Of course he should have. Too bad his ego is more important than the economy.
Of course he should have. Too bad his ego is more important than the economy.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Yeah, without rising rates, two things could happen:
1. You can’t lower rates when the **** hits the fan
2. You already have a fully recovered economy and now you just stupidly injected more cash into it when it wasn’t necessary and eliminated a useful tool to limit recessions. Doubling the importance of item 1. If you don’t pump the brakes a little, the eventual and overdue recession will be worse.
Yeah, without rising rates, two things could happen:
1. You can’t lower rates when the **** hits the fan
2. You already have a fully recovered economy and now you just stupidly injected more cash into it when it wasn’t necessary and eliminated a useful tool to limit recessions. Doubling the importance of item 1. If you don’t pump the brakes a little, the eventual and overdue recession will be worse.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
So two mistakes made. He fired Yellen AND he cut taxes. Not surprising. Republicans do not like a stable growing economy. I'm sure Wall Street doesn't either. Day Traders and billionaire's make more money when it's volatile and everyone's 401K or equiv is in freefall.
So two mistakes made. He fired Yellen AND he cut taxes. Not surprising. Republicans do not like a stable growing economy. I'm sure Wall Street doesn't either. Day Traders and billionaire's make more money when it's volatile and everyone's 401K or equiv is in freefall.
unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Again all my research suggests that the actions of the fed are largely independent of who is in office. Had obama lost either of the election years, I promise you that the federal reserve would have kept rates low, and engaged in QE. Sure, Trump nominates powell - but what has powell done in his few weeks in office? Sure the market might view him as a hawk, more so than Yellan...but he's not exactly taking rates up to Volker levels.
It's been successful and rates have been gradually going up.
Truth is we are barely moving rates up , still. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS The federal reserve knows full well that tightening in conjunction with unwinding QE positions poses a problem to the stock market in large. Low rates, plus bond buying == more money in the system to purchase securities. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess what might happen in reverse. Not saying this is whats happening now ( a correction is a correction), but more on a long term macro level.
As Dalio said, we are witnessing what will happen in regards to volatility as QE and effective funds rates increase.
Again all my research suggests that the actions of the fed are largely independent of who is in office. Had obama lost either of the election years, I promise you that the federal reserve would have kept rates low, and engaged in QE. Sure, Trump nominates powell - but what has powell done in his few weeks in office? Sure the market might view him as a hawk, more so than Yellan...but he's not exactly taking rates up to Volker levels.
It's been successful and rates have been gradually going up.
Truth is we are barely moving rates up , still. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS The federal reserve knows full well that tightening in conjunction with unwinding QE positions poses a problem to the stock market in large. Low rates, plus bond buying == more money in the system to purchase securities. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess what might happen in reverse. Not saying this is whats happening now ( a correction is a correction), but more on a long term macro level.
As Dalio said, we are witnessing what will happen in regards to volatility as QE and effective funds rates increase.
unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
That’s where QE comes in – you can’t lower rates so you buy assets essentially moving debt from one balance sheet ( the banks) to another ( the federal reserve). In a normal cycle like in 29, you had the inevitable deleveraging cycle which took 10+ years to work out. Price go up on margin, than go down – debt gets written off or whatever. What worries me is that we never had this cycle in 08. Instead the fed used trump card #2 (no pun intended) aka POMO (Permanent open market operations) and moved the debt around. It has never been deleveraged.
Ask yourself this. In 29, House Morgan tried to bail out wall street. In 97 the regular banks tried to bail out LTCM. In 2008 the central banks bail out the regular banks. My question is who is going to bail out the central banks?
That’s where QE comes in – you can’t lower rates so you buy assets essentially moving debt from one balance sheet ( the banks) to another ( the federal reserve). In a normal cycle like in 29, you had the inevitable deleveraging cycle which took 10+ years to work out. Price go up on margin, than go down – debt gets written off or whatever. What worries me is that we never had this cycle in 08. Instead the fed used trump card #2 (no pun intended) aka POMO (Permanent open market operations) and moved the debt around. It has never been deleveraged.
Ask yourself this. In 29, House Morgan tried to bail out wall street. In 97 the regular banks tried to bail out LTCM. In 2008 the central banks bail out the regular banks. My question is who is going to bail out the central banks?
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FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
They can stay low forever, and under Obama, they did. Every single crash since the history of the Federal Reserve has been short-term preceded by rising interest rates.
If Yellen were chair, she'd also be raising rates trying to crash the economy, just like 2008. This is pure market manipulation meant to destroy Trump, because the idiotic Steele dossier didn't work.
They can stay low forever, and under Obama, they did. Every single crash since the history of the Federal Reserve has been short-term preceded by rising interest rates.
If Yellen were chair, she'd also be raising rates trying to crash the economy, just like 2008. This is pure market manipulation meant to destroy Trump, because the idiotic Steele dossier didn't work.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
If you want to know why people get mad when other people quote you, well, THIS ^^^^^ is why. Lay off the "Alex Jones Frog Saliva Drip for increased Testosterone" for two seconds and think about what you're saying.
If you want to know why people get mad when other people quote you, well, THIS ^^^^^ is why. Lay off the "Alex Jones Frog Saliva Drip for increased Testosterone" for two seconds and think about what you're saying.
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
He's going to be pi-R-squared when he remembers that just last week he was in favor of higher interest rates because the Trumpster Fire was right for a change, and insisted that near-zero interest rates can't last forever.
He's going to be pi-R-squared when he remembers that just last week he was in favor of higher interest rates because the Trumpster Fire was right for a change, and insisted that near-zero interest rates can't last forever.
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
You're asking someone who uses infowars as his primary news source to THINK??
You're asking someone who uses infowars as his primary news source to THINK??
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands
Yes. Apparently he can type and put a couple of sentences together. It shouldn't be too much to ask to expand the horizon a little bit.
Yes. Apparently he can type and put a couple of sentences together. It shouldn't be too much to ask to expand the horizon a little bit.
trixR4kids
Well-known member
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
It only seemed like forever for you.
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