Re: Brown Hockey 2012-2013:Climbing the ECAC Ladder
http://brownhockeyblog.blogspot.com/
My thoughts on the weekend, as well as our potential for home ice in the playoffs. I'll have a big piece on Matt Lorito posted tomorrow.
I agree with a couple of points, but I'll disagree on the prospect of home ice. Brown still has a good chunk of work to do in order to get to that point. A win over Harvard is huge, but Brown still only has 8 points. If the season ended today, I believe they would be hosting Clarkson by virtue of a tiebreaker.
I think Brown has their work cut out for them because, quite simply, they don't control their own destiny. They have four games left against Cornell and Colgate, including this weekend up at two complete and venerable houses of horrors where Brown hockey dreams typically go to die. And they have to go to Union, which puts the impetus on the season to win at RPI. We have to figure that Brown will not win at Cornell or at Union, nor will they beat Quinnpiac on the road or at home.
That means Brown has games left against Princeton (2), Yale (1), Colgate (2) and RPI. I wholly believe Princeton and RPI are bad hockey teams. Assuming Brown loses at Colgate because, well, Brown always loses at Colgate, we're looking at winnable points against Princeton, Colgate, Yale, and RPI. That's a max of 8 points. Assuming Brown would win all four of those, that gives them 16 on the year. Last year, 16 points was good enough for the 11 seed, but I get the feeling that 16 points might place a team in the 9-10 range this year.
My biggest problem right now with Brown is that as well as they're playing, they're going to absolutely HAVE to sweep Princeton and beat RPI. Colgate is a toss-up, and Yale is a good team that Brown historically can play well against. Still, I don't know that the Bears can hang with them. I don't think Princeton is nearly good enough to be considered a 5 seed, and I didn't think RPI would be where they are in the standings. But Princeton also has already passed through the toughest parts of the schedule, and their road trips left include winnable games at Harvard and the north country. So they could finish in the middle of the pack.
Realistically, if Brown wants to get a home series, they're going to need to beat Princeton twice, beat RPI, and then either take points from the Cornell/Colgate trip or beat Yale (or both). If they can somehow get 10 points, they'll also own tiebreakers over Princeton, who they might be near in the standings, and Colgate, who they also might be near. That's huge and will probably position Brown as the 8-seed, hosting a team like St. Lawrence or Clarkson.
If Brown does not get the 8-10 points, however, then they're looking at probably finishing in the 10-12 area. Since they hold tiebreakers over Clarkson and Harvard, they could end up as the 10, which puts them on the road at one of these places - Colgate, Clarkson, RPI. Bummer.
The margin for error right now is razor thin.
