Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??
So in terms of the next steps- what do you think is going to happen? Most talking heads seem to think Boris is in big trouble...
It appears cooler heads have prevailed on BoJo not to break UK law and take it out of Europe illegally. That way lies madness, and a long prison sentence.
There are still some variables, but if we take that off the table...
BoJo is not getting a deal with Europe, so let's ignore that one.
A less likely outcome is the EU giving the UK a 90-day extension. It is more likely to be the two-year deal France is proposing. Point of order here, the extension is not up to BoJo. Within 48 hours of Europe offering a longer extension (or agreeing to 31 January for some reason) the matter returns to parliament for approval. The law is clear on that.
With an extension sorted, the Labour party (or whatever is left of the Tories) declares no-confidence in BoJo. He loses and new elections are forced. The Tories then have a choice: Keep BoJo as leader of the party or force him out and try to find a new leader. Either way is a problem.
In the new election, most of England will see a Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit candidate. All four parties are viable. Both sides will be split. I have no idea what the outcome of that election will be. It will probably happen in early December. Possible outcomes include a majority for any of the four parties (unlikely), a coalition Lib Dem/Labour/SNP or Tory/Brexit/DUP (more likely) or a hung parliament (most likely) with no clear majority for any of the parties and no easy coalition. Expect Green, Independent, Change UK and other parties to gain enough seats to force other groups into an uneasy alliance and the whole thing is a mess. Meanwhile, the European Council looks on in mild amusement wondering how Britain went from the Stiff Upper Lip crowd to an island full of schizophrenics.
That's one guess. I'm sure something else will happen though. This has taken so many turns to the unexpected there are bound to be more. On that note, wait until you hear the idea floated in my next post...