Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

[MissThundercat]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

UKIP has a new leader: Richard Braine. Or Dick Braine for short.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

I went on a high school band trip in 2003/NY 2004, and IIRC the rate was something like $1.85-$1.95/£1 (depending on if you were smart and shopped around).

I don't think it's deceiving. They're already tanking and the hard Brexit isn't even 100% confirmed yet. With the tumultuousness of Brexit + a US recession in the next 18 months, they could easily be looking at being par or even slightly underwater vs. USD before that's over.

I'm sorry I didn't read back in this thread very far but.... I got some good advice years ago from my dad about markets. He said, traders are like lemmings, they all follow each other, up and down. So to be honest the price of the pound is almost priced in now and I wouldn't expect a large change once things are announced, unless they decide to stay or agree with the EU. It's great if you're a tourist now though.

Regarding Scotland, its kind of dammed if you do and dammed if you don't. There are good reasons for both, economically that is, not emotionally..

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

So to be honest the price of the pound is almost priced in now

Looks like it. The Brexit vote was 6/23/16. There was a 20% slide against the Euro immediately to what they're at now (about 1.07 : 1.00) and since they have fluctuated only a little.

Unless what is baked in is "they're morons but something will happen," and the markets just can't bring themselves to believe they are stupid enough to do a Hard Brexit.

To which I say, look at 1600. These things can happen if you have enough rash, stupid, ignorant, selfish people.

 

[MissThundercat]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Boris wants the Queen to suspend Parliament to force through no-deal Brexit vote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n7XXpRH1eniqP0k1U9FljDjGwfdoatPnt771WfaZDXzr8

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Boris wants the Queen to suspend Parliament to force through no-deal Brexit vote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n7XXpRH1eniqP0k1U9FljDjGwfdoatPnt771WfaZDXzr8

If you had "Boris will drag the UK into a Constitutional Crisis before Labor Day" with Ladbrokes, congratulations!

 

[alfablue]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Boris wants the Queen to suspend Parliament to force through no-deal Brexit vote.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n7XXpRH1eniqP0k1U9FljDjGwfdoatPnt771WfaZDXzr8

If I were to run against him, I'd totally lay his claims of being able to renegotiate the deal right on top of him. Given what he seems to want, I suspect he does want a hard, no-deal brexit, even though he claimed that he would be able to renegotiate the deal.

For sure, he'll blame the EU, but given his efforts, he's not really fooling anyone about what his goal really is.

And it's amusing that the excuse is that he needs to make an agenda- as if he has never had one, and this is some kind of new thing that needs some extra time. Time that the PM's don't need to figure out what his plans are... Seems like its a pretty obvious power grab to me....

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

If I were to run against him, I'd totally lay his claims of being able to renegotiate the deal right on top of him. Given what he seems to want, I suspect he does want a hard, no-deal brexit, even though he claimed that he would be able to renegotiate the deal.

For sure, he'll blame the EU, but given his efforts, he's not really fooling anyone about what his goal really is.

And it's amusing that the excuse is that he needs to make an agenda- as if he has never had one, and this is some kind of new thing that needs some extra time. Time that the PM's don't need to figure out what his plans are... Seems like its a pretty obvious power grab to me....

He's just trying to survive and not get blamed. That's his whole shtick. He's similar to Dump in that regard. He doesn't appear to have any actual beliefs, he's just doing a soft shoe.

I assume this will destroy his career and literally everybody in the UK will be happier for it except him. For that matter, probably him too. Like Dubya he should have maxed out as a used car salesman. He might even have been competent at that.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

He's just trying to survive and not get blamed. That's his whole shtick. He's similar to Dump in that regard. He doesn't appear to have any actual beliefs, he's just doing a soft shoe.

I assume this will destroy his career and literally everybody in the UK will be happier for it except him. For that matter, probably him too. Like Dubya he should have maxed out as a used car salesman. He might even have been competent at that.

I don't think the goal was just to survive- I think he really wanted a no-deal Brexit, but sold everyone that he could make a deal, or it was the EU's fault. But how could anyone think he's even approached the EU with any decent proposal?

The survival part is to get through the no deal brexit without blame. And then he's got the real, greedy, power he wants. Just like dumpy. Who has also not really done a single major thing, other than signing his name to someone else's tax break idea.

Hopefully, people see that's he's a clown.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Hopefully, people see that's he's a clown.

Sadly I don't think the Brit right is any smarter than the American right.

Life was better before the parties bifurcated on intelligence. The right was always going to be dumber because of their rump of reactionaries (the Russell Kirk line), but since the 90s the mitosis has accelerated and at this point the two Bell curves barely touch. You could almost rank order intelligence in the electorate by sorting first by D/R and then sorting within.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

He's just trying to survive and not get blamed. That's his whole shtick. He's similar to Dump in that regard. He doesn't appear to have any actual beliefs, he's just doing a soft shoe.

I assume this will destroy his career and literally everybody in the UK will be happier for it except him. For that matter, probably him too. Like Dubya he should have maxed out as a used car salesman. He might even have been competent at that.

Jon Oliver kind of proved that theory wrong. Boris has carefully calculated his persona and his moves. Trump is an idiot...Boris pretends to be an idiot so people ignore the things he does and says.

Put it a better way...Boris is the politician Sicatoka thinks Trump is.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The road ahead for Boris is actually pretty easy. He takes the UK out of Europe without a deal. There is a vote of no confidence. If he wins, case closed. If he loses (incredibly likely) then either Jeremy Corbyn becomes the temporary PM until the election or Boris remains in charge if the coalition can't agree on Corbyn. In the new election, he appeals to the Brexit Party by pointing to the fact that he's already taken the UK out of Europe, thus dampening the party's effectiveness at challenging him. Labour and the Lib Dems split the vote on the left + the Tories are the only option left on the right = Conservative House of Commons and Boris remaining as PM. The only way Boris fails is if the Brexit Party is able to maintain relevancy even though Boris has already taken them out and the vote on the right is split too. That could lead to a very interesting election and resulting Parliament.

It should be pointed out that legal experts differ on whether the UK will even be out if 31 October passes without a deal, but it will be tied up in court for ages - and which court will even have jurisdiction? Meanwhile, the UK breaks the Good Friday Agreement and becomes a rogue nation. Will that have ramifications? The United States can get away with committing war crimes because we're a huge economy and a military powerhouse. An independent UK? Notsomuch.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Ruth Davidson resigned as head of the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party today. This puts the the dozen Scottish seats the Tories won in the last general election very much in doubt, which places the makeup of Parliament very much in doubt. This also paves the way for a Scottish Independence vote.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

A court in Scotland refused to immediately block the prorogation of Parliament, but will have a full hearing next week. Another case will be heard in Northern Ireland as well. This will all end up in the UK version of the Supreme Court. Former Tory Prime Minister John Major will be joining the court action to prevent the prorogation. Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that after talks with several members of EU leadership, he believes the EU will unilaterally withdraw the 31 October deadline which will allow the UK more time to reach a deal (or come to its senses and revoke article 50). That would elevate the Brexit Party to a serious threat to Boris Johnson and make the inevitable general election very interesting.

Hard to believe this was all supposed to be done last March...

ETA: A poll on Scottish independence returned a 46-43% plurality in favor. It is the first poll in favor since before Theresa May became Prime Minister. Noteworthy that the poll did not include 16 and 17-year olds, who will be able to vote in the referendum and are in an age group that strongly favors independence. The referendum can be called as soon as next year.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that after talks with several members of EU leadership, he believes the EU will unilaterally withdraw the 31 October deadline which will allow the UK more time to reach a deal (or come to its senses and revoke article 50).

Is there any reason to believe that? Seems to me the EU has said "no means no" about as clearly as one can.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Is there any reason to believe that? Seems to me the EU has said "no means no" about as clearly as one can.

The EU doesn't want a no-deal.
The EU considers Northern Ireland and Scotland part of its domain and doesn't want to abandon those citizens.
Eliminating the deadline would be a terrific way for the EU to play dirty in the UK's elections. It would be incredibly risky - Prime Minister Farage? Or it could be very rewarding - a PM from the Lib Dems or a Labour rep more Euro-friendly than Jeremy Corbyn? Farage and company have made no secret that the Brexit members of the EU Parliament plan to disrupt business in Brussels as much as they can until the UK is gone; this gives the EU a chance to return the favor.

I think the business interests will whisper (bellow?) in Macron's ear and convince him to go along with this. Business HATES the prospect of a no-deal even more than the governments do.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The EU doesn't want a no-deal.
The EU considers Northern Ireland and Scotland part of its domain and doesn't want to abandon those citizens.
Eliminating the deadline would be a terrific way for the EU to play dirty in the UK's elections. It would be incredibly risky - Prime Minister Farage? Or it could be very rewarding - a PM from the Lib Dems or a Labour rep more Euro-friendly than Jeremy Corbyn? Farage and company have made no secret that the Brexit members of the EU Parliament plan to disrupt business in Brussels as much as they can until the UK is gone; this gives the EU a chance to return the favor.

I think the business interests will whisper (bellow?) in Macron's ear and convince him to go along with this. Business HATES the prospect of a no-deal even more than the governments do.

It might be better in the long run to let the animals have their way and stand back while the place burns. The morons have to be stopped, there as well as here. Just as Dump is in a way a blessing because when fascism finally did arrive in the US it came wrapped in a diaper and carrying a rattle, Johnson/UKIP/Brexit seem like the perfect characters to get flushed down the drain when even the dumbest Brit can see what his little tantrum cost.

And yeah, I know full well the fascists there and here will go to their graves without learning a thing. That's a given. I'm thinking about the lofo morons who were "just havin' a little giggle." Here, have the insolvency of your stupid island as a parting gift. Consider it severance pay for the Empire's rape of the planet for 150 years.

And don't worry. We're next.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

It might be better in the long run to let the animals have their way and stand back while the place burns. The morons have to be stopped, there as well as here. Just as Dump is in a way a blessing because when fascism finally did arrive in the US it came wrapped in a diaper and carrying a rattle, Johnson/UKIP/Brexit seem like the perfect characters to get flushed down the drain when even the dumbest Brit can see what his little tantrum cost.

And yeah, I know full well the fascists there and here will go to their graves without learning a thing. That's a given. I'm thinking about the lofo morons who were "just havin' a little giggle." Here, have the insolvency of your stupid island as a parting gift. Consider it severance pay for the Empire's rape of the planet for 150 years.

And don't worry. We're next.

I think Europe is more than willing to cut off Scotland and let the rest of the island sink (sorry Wales). I also think we've all totally missed how much the Europeans see Northern Ireland as part of Ireland, and those citizens are essentially part of the EU. I know the political reality is that right now they're part of the UK but it's only a matter of time before the Unionists are a minority and Ireland is reunited. Aside from the Good Friday Agreement (which is a legal peace treaty no matter how much Nigel et al want to pretend it isn't) those people are Europeans and the EU is not going to desert them.

England raped the planet for 400 years. We have raped it for the last century or so. The bill is coming due for both of us.

 

[MissThundercat]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Now Boris is saying he'll ignore MPs if they vote to block no-deal Brexit.

Do you want an early election? Because that's how you get an early election.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Now Boris is saying he'll ignore MPs if they vote to block no-deal Brexit.

Do you want an early election? Because that's how you get an early election.

He wants an early election. As outlined before, if he can convince the Brexit party and supporters that he is going to (or has) push(ed) the UK out of the EU the Tories win and he remains PM. Subsequent to what I wrote previously, the Brexit Party has said it will not field candidates in the election as long as Boris stays the course. Without any opposition on the right, the Tories might get 350-400 seats as a resurgent Lib Dems party and Labour split the vote. That will more than make up for the loss of the Scottish seats that almost assuredly will flip back to the opposition. This is all going perfectly for Boris. Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the non-bat**** insane faction of the Conservative Party better not be waiting for the buffoon to goof it up. He's been planning this for years. He isn't likely to blow it.

 

[mookie1995]

He wants an early election. As outlined before, if he can convince the Brexit party and supporters that he is going to (or has) push(ed) the UK out of the EU the Tories win and he remains PM. Subsequent to what I wrote previously, the Brexit Party has said it will not field candidates in the election as long as Boris stays the course. Without any opposition on the right, the Tories might get 350-400 seats as a resurgent Lib Dems party and Labour split the vote. That will more than make up for the loss of the Scottish seats that almost assuredly will flip back to the opposition. This is all going perfectly for Boris. Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the non-bat**** insane faction of the Conservative Party better not be waiting for the buffoon to goof it up. He's been planning this for years. He isn't likely to blow it.

they need to stick together and tell that rouge european nation to f off as the euros try to break the good friday treaty between IRE and NIR