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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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French Rage said:
35M outstanding nationwide, down 2M from yesterday.

I'm assuming a lot of those are from states that sent them to everyone, right? So that doesn't mean, say, there are 35M who usually vote who haven't? Don't get me wrong, it's best if the number is 0, but you can't look at that whole number and see votes lost compared to previous years.
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At least in Michigan, everyone had to request their ballot, though they were automatically sent a ballot request form. So unfortunately that is 650k who actually intend to vote may not have it counted.
 
1 of the nationwide ones may be my wife. She sent in the request, got the ballot, and we then voted early in person. They said this invalidates the ballot she received in the mail, not sure if it removes it from the outstanding count.
 
state of hockey said:
1 of the nationwide ones may be my wife. She sent in the request, got the ballot, and we then voted early in person. They said this invalidates the ballot she received in the mail, not sure if it removes it from the outstanding count.
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I did the same- I think many did.
 
state of hockey said:
1 of the nationwide ones may be my wife. She sent in the request, got the ballot, and we then voted early in person. They said this invalidates the ballot she received in the mail, not sure if it removes it from the outstanding count.
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I would assume it doesnt. I would also assume French Rage is correct and the 35 million includes the ballots that were sent out even without a request but you would probably need to look at previous years to know for sure.
 
The Economist forecast bounced to 97% chance of a Biden win yesterday in the EC briefly before pulling back to 95%. Today it is back to 97%.

Going just by who has a better than 50% chance to win a Senate seat, they would also be calling for 7 Democratic party gains and 1 loss, for a net pickup of 6. I would love to see a 53-47 split in the Senate (well I would love to see a 99-1 split, you gotta keep one there to humiliate) because it would give us the chance to push just about anything through even if 2 or 3 of the worst senators, like a Joe Manchin, would have to break ranks. A 50-50 split, or even 51-49 will limit us to mostly muted response to the Nazi drift.

Go big or get the fvck out.
 
538 just dropped an enormous, laborious, thorough guide to when we should expect results reported in every state. The unsurprising bottom line: if it's a blowout we will know sometime before Wednesday morning. If it's closer we're looking at a week. After which, of course, there will be lawsuits and Brooks Brothers riots and Nazi kidnappings and MAGA lynching parties and whatever else.
 
state of hockey said:
1 of the nationwide ones may be my wife. She sent in the request, got the ballot, and we then voted early in person. They said this invalidates the ballot she received in the mail, not sure if it removes it from the outstanding count.
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The latter is a really good question.

I wonder what happens if you vote early in person and then drop off a ballot later. Which takes precedence: in-person-ness or chronology? It may vary by state.
 
Kepler said:
The latter is a really good question.

I wonder what happens if you vote early in person and then drop off a ballot later. Which takes precedence: in-person-ness or chronology? It may vary by state.
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I thought I read in Minnesota the in person (pardon the pun) trumps the absentee. But technically voting early in Minnesota is an absentee vote even if in person. But if you mailed a ballot but worried it would not be counted and voted on Election Day only the in person counts the other is thrown out IIRC.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Minnesota, Nevada and PA are rumored to be top states for republicans to file their waaaaa we lost lawsuits

https://mobile.twitter.com/axios/status/1322237330875248640
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Minnesota would only be if the deadline issue gets overturned before the Supreme Court somehow. Otherwise they have no real fight since the deadline to receive the ballot is now 8PM on Election Day. You can't fight the legitimacy of the ballots your own party set the deadline for unless you are going to argue that all the absentee ballots are illegitimate which I dont even think this SC would agree with. (if they did it would probably lead to full on riots that make the George Floyd Protests look like a bake sale)

If I was a strategist for the GOP I would avoid Minnesota like the plague for a lawsuit unless Minnesota decides to count the ballots for some odd reason. (which they won't for anything official) The Supreme Court isnt going to re-instate the grace period most likely so the count will be the count. You sue to de-legitimize the count set forth by the State Legislature you are opening up a massive can of worms that likely dont work out well for you.

Nevada seems an odd choice as well. I mean they are looking at possible losses in Georgia and NC in very close races and they are gonna focus on Minnesota and Nevada?
 
There must be a GW Pabst film festival happening in TX, cuz the Nazis are projecting.

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Its a technicality and it is stupid. I figure it is some stupid way around some lame law the Leg is too lazy fix but I havent researched it.

Kepler that Texas LT. Governor is a piece of work. He was one of the first people to say the Olds should just suck it up and die to re-open the economy.
 
Oh God, Nate, I didn't need that last sentence.

Note, he predicts:

60% chance Biden wins and we know it by 3 a.m.
30% chance Biden wins and we know it eventually
10% chance Dump wins and we know it eventually
 
Kepler said:
Trafalgar trying to play the Rasmussen 2004 card. That year, Rasmussen was the closest poll to the actuals because its systemic 5-point bias happened to hit an unpolled effect that the others missed. Of course, Rasmussen has been way off every year Republicans didn't have a big overperformance, but that didn't stop them from having a 4-year honeymoon in which everybody loved them and every conservative quoted them as gospel.

This time Trafalgar is trying to do the same thing, being even more shameless than Rasmussen. At least the latter tries to fake it but Nate has suggested Trafalgar has no idea what they're doing and just manufactures numbers made to order for narratives, like official party polls.
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My absolute favorite travalgar moment in 2020 was when they released cross tabs with only 60 voters for PAs 18 districts

I didn’t understand why that was stupid because it didn’t occur to me that it was 60 spread across all 18, not 60 in each. These people are fucking stupid as it comes.
 
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