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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
More detail on what PA AG is doing

https://mobile.twitter.com/spruce_li...45214819090433
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A good defense is a strong offense. Glad the AG is getting ahead of this by separating late arriving ballots from *all* mail in ballots. I'm 100% on board with that. Unfortunately, I have a feeling we're about to see many Seinfeld type mail trucks packed with ballots that were "late" thanks to the USPS dragging their feet this weekend.


Republicans don't care if the baby's bathwater is dirty, they'd lock the bathroom door with the mother and child inside and light fire to the entire room.



Side note, I live in a very red area and it took three weeks to *get* my mail-in ballot from the county clerk. I think I'm just going to early vote instead and destroy the mail-in.
 
French Rage said:
I mean, yeah. That's not exactly new news. All the more reason to make sure people get ballots in or vote in person regardless of what the polls say. None of this should change one's plans.
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Well apparently it is news because a lot of people dont understand it. You would think 2016 would have taught them.

The problem with her scenario is her PA number is a bit off because it has been skewed by a few partisan polls it seems that have pushed Trump closer to the MOE. (based on the comments I havent looked at the polls much) If Trump is within the MOE in PA then her first model is possible. Since most aggregates seem to have Biden leading by more than the MOE her scenario is not likely though. Trumpers in her comments really are trying to make it seem like Trump will win Pennsylvania based on the rallies and the oil comment.

The scary thing is if her first scenario is correct by AZ flips then it is 269-269 with NE being the swing vote.

The interesting part of reading that string is how many people are only looking at the numbers and ignoring other factors. It is like the stats geeks in sports they are so deep into it they arent paying attention to what is actually happening. They dont seem to get why it wouldnt be concerning for the Dems that they need to win WI, MI and Minnesota...to them that seems like a hard task to do. Well Minnesota in all likelihood is fine (at this point if Trump wins here they burned ballots) and WI and MI have not exactly been trending Trump. COVID is definitely hurting that as it is in Flo(R)ida. They arent looking at anything other than the simulations and scenarios, they are ignoring all polling, the vote totals in already and the higher turnout that is almost guaranteed and where it is. They even write off historical trends which should be right in their wheelhouse. I am not sure if they are hedging, or "looking for Zebras" but they are seemed to be biased towards the outlier instead of looking at what is right in front of their face. How did that work out for the Tampa Bay Rays the other day?

Now I am in NO WAY saying Trump has lost or it is a lock for Biden...but just because the polls were wrong** in 2016 doesnt mean anything now. Plus the situations dont really compare. For example in 2016 when Hillary was winning by like 3% in Pennsylvania both were in the mid to lower 40s. That leaves a large amount of people undecided that could swing things either way. If 538 is to be believed outside of the outsider B- poll that has Trump up 3 Biden is polling at 50% in most polls from the last two weeks or so. Being up 4-5% when you are at 50% is very different than being up 3-4% at 46%.



**They werent wrong, but that is the vernacular that often gets used. The polls were fine the interpretations were off and people dont get how probability works.
 
aparch said:
A good defense is a strong offense. Glad the AG is getting ahead of this by separating late arriving ballots from *all* mail in ballots. I'm 100% on board with that. Unfortunately, I have a feeling we're about to see many Seinfeld type mail trucks packed with ballots that were "late" thanks to the USPS dragging their feet this weekend.


Republicans don't care if the baby's bathwater is dirty, they'd lock the bathroom door with the mother and child inside and light fire to the entire room.



Side note, I live in a very red area and it took three weeks to *get* my mail-in ballot from the county clerk. I think I'm just going to early vote instead and destroy the mail-in.
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At this point mailing it would be stupid. Either drop it off or vote in person. The mail cant be trusted.
 
And just to show how fucked up the districts are in WI, the GOP is going to take 5/8 House seats even though Biden is going to win by double digits there. Unfuckingreal.
 
I guess Paul Rudd is in Brooklyn handing out cookies to people waiting in the rain to vote. We really do need more Paul Rudds. Such a Baldwin.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
And just to show how ****ed up the districts are in WI, the GOP is going to take 5/8 House seats even though Biden is going to win by double digits there. Un****ingreal.
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WI is the only state in the country where more people voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms that has a majority republican congressional delegation. As bad as that is, I don't believe the state is gerrymandered as bad as Ohio. At least not as far as the U.S. House districts go. Perhaps the State Assembly or Senate are as shamefully bad. But Ohio's goes beyond any bounds of fairness or reasonableness.

Ohio at least passed a redistricting law in 2018 that will go as far as any state in addressing gerrymandering I believe. Politicians will draw the districts and you will have to get support from both parties, including half the minority party. I think this is the best method for drawing the lines. There are also fail-safes in place in case new lines can't be agreed upon. If the politicians can't agree a 7 member bi-partisan commission will draw the lines, and that map will have to get the support of at least 2 of the minority party. If that fails, the legislature can try again and if they can't get at least 1/3rd of the minority party to support the plan, it can only last 4 years, where it will certainly be an election year issue.

This plan has the potential to really alter the makeup of political districts in Ohio and potentially make them fair. Voters would be able to select their representatives than politicians picking their voters. This was a political issue I gladly worked on while I was a leg breaking Union Thug in Ohio.
 
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[TD]One candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.[/TD]
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bronconick said:
[TABLE="align: center, border: 0, cellpadding: 6, cellspacing: 0"]
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[TD]One candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.[/TD]
[/TR]
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True. That's how pathetic and sad we are. And the fact we have one of our two parties who thinks this is perfectly fine and normal makes it worse.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
WI is the only state in the country where more people voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms that has a majority republican congressional delegation. As bad as that is, I don't believe the state is gerrymandered as bad as Ohio. At least not as far as the U.S. House districts go. Perhaps the State Assembly or Senate are as shamefully bad. But Ohio's goes beyond any bounds of fairness or reasonableness.

Ohio at least passed a redistricting law in 2018 that will go as far as any state in addressing gerrymandering I believe. Politicians will draw the districts and you will have to get support from both parties, including half the minority party. I think this is the best method for drawing the lines. There are also fail-safes in place in case new lines can't be agreed upon. If the politicians can't agree a 7 member bi-partisan commission will draw the lines, and that map will have to get the support of at least 2 of the minority party. If that fails, the legislature can try again and if they can't get at least 1/3rd of the minority party to support the plan, it can only last 4 years, where it will certainly be an election year issue.

This plan has the potential to really alter the makeup of political districts in Ohio and potentially make them fair. Voters would be able to select their representatives than politicians picking their voters. This was a political issue I gladly worked on while I was a leg breaking Union Thug in Ohio.
Click to expand...

Ohio's two most gerrymandered districts:
4th: Gym Jordan, 'nuf said other than my herp-a-derp cousins, an aunt, and an uncle are residents of The Fightin' Fourth! and proudly throw their votes Gym's way every two years.
9th: Marcy Kaptur, Toledo's longtime Congresswoman whose district now traverses the Lake Erie shoreline all the way to Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). She also represents the fine folks on Put-in-Bay.

https://www.cleveland.com/resizer/9...aws.com/public/MNMTAQODSJB7DG6KRNKVB57MGI.png
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
By this time next week, we should have a pretty good feeling for whether or not the Republicans and their judicial/plute/foreign supporters have succeeded in lying, cheating, and stealing their way to a fraudulent victory.
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I don't know how widespread this belief is and I hate to be one thinking it, but if trump wins in any way, whether that is by "counting" the votes, or being declared the winner by courts, I won't believe for a minute he got it by anything other than outright fraud and stealing.

There may well have been shenanigans beyond voter suppression last time around, but this time? No way am I buying for a minute more people in the right states are going to vote for him.

The polling organizations that are getting the A+ and A and B+ ratings from 538.com are highly competent at what they do and spent a lot of time and effort shoring up the weakest points in their methodology after a 2016 election that really didn't see them doing a bad job. I believe the polls accurately reflect what people have been doing and will do up to and including November 3rd. Are one or two of them wrong? You betcha. But the odds of them only being wrong in trump's favor instead of say, calling for a 21.8 point win in Connecticutt that turns out to be a 22.6 point win are too long to worry me.

What worries me is republicans stealing an election. I don't necessarily think that it will happen, but if trump "wins" I believe that is what will have happened. I also think that more people that republicans can possibly imagine are going to believe that too, and it ain't gonna be pretty. I've been saying since 2015 that trump was and is an existential threat to the survival of this country. I believe it even more today and if he is president beyond January 20, 2021, I doubt this country survives his second term intact. And frankly I don't know that we deserve to.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
I don't know how widespread this belief is and I hate to be one thinking it, but if trump wins in any way, whether that is by "counting" the votes, or being declared the winner by courts, I won't believe for a minute he got it by anything other than outright fraud and stealing.

There may well have been shenanigans beyond voter suppression last time around, but this time? No way am I buying for a minute more people in the right states are going to vote for him.

The polling organizations that are getting the A+ and A and B+ ratings from 538.com are highly competent at what they do and spent a lot of time and effort shoring up the weakest points in their methodology after a 2016 election that really didn't see them doing a bad job. I believe the polls accurately reflect what people have been doing and will do up to and including November 3rd. Are one or two of them wrong? You betcha. But the odds of them only being wrong in trump's favor instead of say, calling for a 21.8 point win in Connecticutt that turns out to be a 22.6 point win are too long to worry me.

What worries me is republicans stealing an election. I don't necessarily think that it will happen, but if trump "wins" I believe that is what will have happened. I also think that more people that republicans can possibly imagine are going to believe that too, and it ain't gonna be pretty. I've been saying since 2015 that trump was and is an existential threat to the survival of this country. I believe it even more today and if he is president beyond January 20, 2021, I doubt this country survives his second term intact. And frankly I don't know that we deserve to.
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I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
 
bronconick said:
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[TD]One candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.[/TD]
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What if our country is a failed state? I think you can make a well-reasoned argument that it is. Frankly I'm sometimes surprised European nations haven't sanctioned us for our poor human and civil rights record.

I'm not much of an REO Speedwagon fan, but Golden Country is a song that just seems to scream 2020 to me........... Listen up, youngins'
 
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Drew S. said:
I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
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I hope you're right... and I think my Wings just potted ANOTHER goal by Patrick Roy! Must be about eleventy-seven to nothing by now!
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Nate is helping D voters mainline way too much of our own Kool-Aid.
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No those are the trends. The numbers out of Texas are pretty good. Not enough to win but a lot closer than say Minnesota is. Trump wont lose it...but if I was making a futures bet (assuming nothing crazy happens in the interim) 2024 will have Texas be the new purple state. It is trending that way in the local elections and by then the Dems might have taken the state house. For as vapid a candidate as Beto was for office, he is doing an awesome job getting voters to the polls and supporting the liberal candidates in the local races. (methinks he might challenge Abbott in 2 years)

It is definitely more believable that Iowa is 50/50 though. If Ernst was a stronger Senator he would probably be in a much better position but she is at best leading within the MOE and that puts it in play.

But again neither of these states are must wins...they are piling it on and they are more harbingers of the map as a whole. The fact that Texas is within a couple of points is a massive indictment of Trump. And since Texas usually has say 60% turnout for elections (which they have basically matched already and we havent even reached Election Day) it is hard to know what is going to happen.

WeAreNDHockey,

It will depend on where he won and how. If say he wins Minnesota on way to winning the election I will 100% say there is shenanigans going on. If he wins Arizona but Kelly wins the Senate seat I will think something is up. If Michigan and Wisconsin all of a sudden buck the polling trend and fly back to him I will probably as well. (I could buy one but not both)

The problem is, and it goes back to the string after the tweet about possible outcomes, for him to win that is a lot of polling being wrong. Now polling is hardly an exact science and MOE always plays in...but this would be a lot of polling being wrong by a lot of different pollsters over the course of multiple polls in multiple weeks with different methodologies and different biases. That isnt impossible but it isnt likely either. It also isnt impossible I flip a coin 100 times and get 100 heads and 0 tails...but the chances arent great unless factors play in that make it more likely.

Personally I think 538 has it pegged almost perfectly. I think 9/1 is a pretty good number. I have bet on and won on bigger odds at the track though ;-)
 
Drew S. said:
I’m very confident he loses so bad cheating won’t be an option. I think folks will be surprised just how big the margin is.

Edit: to put it in hockey terms I think it will look very much like game seven of the 2002 western conference finals and be just as satisfying.
Click to expand...

So the corona response was Trump's "statue of liberty" moment? ;-)
 
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