When I saw these comments in the same post, my first reaction was: Wait...What?
But after a moment's reflection, I realized your distinction makes a lot of sense. As long as it's clear you're just making predictions, you're free to make any outlandish assumptions you want. It's your crystal ball, it's all in good fun. The idea that a team is overrated or underrated is beside the point.
But published rankings? The problem is they've been used to justify giving teams favorable starting positions in the season long race -- favorable starting positions they've done nothing to earn. Again, the new format appears to address this problem. Gotta see how it works in practice for a few years before passing judgment, but let's hope.
Not crazy. But I can think of a few of reasons why official rankings for football are a good idea:
1.
Transparency. Drawing the line between #4 and #5 is going to be both nationally relevant and controversial. Not nearly as bad as splitting hairs between #2 and #3, but it's still going under the microscope. Better to let the public see the process, however flawed. Otherwise the image of shady deals in smoke filled rooms persists. The size of the field in Hoops makes situation quite different. Separating #68 from #69 isn't going to attract a large number of conspiracy theorists.
2.
Keeping Expectations Reasonable. Inevitably we're going to get late season rivalry games and conference title match-ups where neither team is within striking distance of the top four. Better for the teams involved to know that up front, so the focus can be on the game at hand.
3.
Keeping The Beauty Contests In Their Place. Suppose the Official Committee really did withhold all rankings until the field of four was announced. Unofficial sources would be happy to fill the void. Probable result? More confusion and controversy.
The common thread in all of this? It's very important that the
process be perceived as
legitimate. IMHO, releasing official rankings on October 28th (and beyond) should balance the competing concerns fairly well.