5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[goldy_331]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Residential might work with incentives, the prices are dropping on panels. But I'm talking grid tied and not off the grid

I did a couple projects with solar thermal panels where the payback was reasonable, but they were for domestic hot water on nursing homes. They have a fairly constant demand during the hours when the sun shines so minimal storage tanks needed and the State gave pretty significant incentives for it (so the taxpayers contributed to making the projects viable).

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

So Germany progressed from 0.5% of its total energy consumption in 2007 coming from solar to over 5.0% today (and this in a country with half the hours of sun of the US southwest).

To the surprise of...nobody...you're mixing up terms again. Germany has around 5% of its ELECTRICITY production from solar. But per Wiki, electricity is only about 15% of Germany's total energy usage (590 TWh out of 3807 total). 5% of 15% = 0.75% of total energy usage in Germany coming from solar. Oh, and energy costs in Germany are 6x higher than they are in the US, which should tilt the balance more in renewables favor - they don't have nearly the same pressure to reduce costs since other types of energy are so expensive, too. This is your shining (no pun intended) example of how solar can be a replacement for fossil fuel? Seriously?

Ask Japan about its appetite for this approach. These types of technologies are transitory. As electricity goes to renewables (Solar, Wind, Bio, Hydro) and cars go to electric...the need for fusion will be minimal.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. As cars go electric (and they will), the need for fusion will be higher than ever. 95% of transportation in the US is powered by fossil fuels. If we want to replace that with electricity, we'll need to nearly double the generation capacity in the US. It would be virtually impossible to replace the existing capacity with renewables, to say nothing of doubling it.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I did a couple projects with solar thermal panels where the payback was reasonable, but they were for domestic hot water on nursing homes. They have a fairly constant demand during the hours when the sun shines so minimal storage tanks needed and the State gave pretty significant incentives for it (so the taxpayers contributed to making the projects viable).

Also, solar heating is a completely different beast from solar electricity - you don't have that nasty 10% PV efficiency factor driving up the size of the panels.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Given the way natural gas prices have been dropping, I would be really curious to find out whether I could install a natural gas powered generator and use it to power the house rather than continue to pay the electric company to deliver power. Probably wouldn't do it due to noise factor but it is an interesting thought experiment.

The biggest problem I see with the electricity delivery system we have today is connecting it all together into one big grid. I wonder how much energy we lose to attenuation by sending it far distances relative to how much we could save by having a series of smaller independent grids serving regions instead one or two interconnected grids serving huge swaths of the country (our blackout in the northeast several years ago started in Ohio).

Solar, tidal, wind, geothermal, all could complement each other regionally if we didn't try to have any one of them be too big. Big solar arrays, big wind farms, each have plenty of unintended side effects.

 

[goldy_331]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Also, solar heating is a completely different beast from solar electricity - you don't have that nasty 10% PV efficiency factor driving up the size of the panels.

Correct, but you need projects where the solar output can be well utilized, like the ones I cited. Otherwise the cost of trying to store the energy until it can be used adds too much to the overall project cost. If you need to store the solar heat all day until the heating demand ramps up in the evening you need big storage tanks and a place to put them, along with associated pumps and controls. The solar hot water does not work as well in most residential projects since the demand is at night in in the morning when you are getting no output so every btu needs to be stored for hours until it can be used.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The biggest problem I see with the electricity delivery system we have today is connecting it all together into one big grid. I wonder how much energy we lose to attenuation by sending it far distances relative to how much we could save by having a series of smaller independent grids serving regions instead one or two interconnected grids serving huge swaths of the country (our blackout in the northeast several years ago started in Ohio).

Transmission losses are probably lower than you think - around 5% overall, I think. Power transmitted is voltage x current, while the losses go as the square of the current. Therefore, you can minimize losses (while transmitting the same power) by transmitting at a higher voltage and lower current. "High Tension" (tension is just another word for voltage, not having to do with the tautness of the cables) are up around 1000V, so the currents they are carrying are pretty low, so the losses are low. There very well could be as much transmission loss between your local transformer (which steps the voltage down to 110) and your wall plug as there is in transmitting the power from the plant to the transformer. High tension cables are probably the second most efficient method of transporting energy from one place to another, with rail cars full of fossil fuels being the first.

While the power grid is massively interconnected (for redundancy), production is still quite distributed around the country, so chances are that the power reaching your house did not actually come from hundreds of miles away.

Solar, tidal, wind, geothermal, all could complement each other regionally if we didn't try to have any one of them be too big. Big solar arrays, big wind farms, each have plenty of unintended side effects.

That is for sure.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Correct, but you need projects where the solar output can be well utilized, like the ones I cited. Otherwise the cost of trying to store the energy until it can be used adds too much to the overall project cost. If you need to store the solar heat all day until the heating demand ramps up in the evening you need big storage tanks and a place to put them, along with associated pumps and controls. The solar hot water does not work as well in most residential projects since the demand is at night in in the morning when you are getting no output so every btu needs to be stored for hours until it can be used.

Great points.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I did a couple projects with solar thermal panels where the payback was reasonable, but they were for domestic hot water on nursing homes. They have a fairly constant demand during the hours when the sun shines so minimal storage tanks needed and the State gave pretty significant incentives for it (so the taxpayers contributed to making the projects viable).

I have 2 different hot water systems, one for DHW, 2 3 b y 8s on the roof, been there since 91, have had 0 issues with it. I've taken it down to replace roof and put it back up. Very simple drain back system with differential control, soft storage tank and a homemade copper heat exchanger in tank. The tank was made local, he has refined them since, here is his link if interested http://www.americansolartechnics.com/
I have since built a 30 by 34 shop, its very well insulated, very tight, one 10 by 10 overhead door and one man door. I built a collector into the south wall and tied it directly to radiant floor in slab. This has been the coldest winter its seen, the lowest temp in shop has been 41 degrees. It works just the way I wanted, shop hasn't been below freezing. At this time of year I'll get it up to 50, slab temps around 54,55 . When I need it warmer I have a wood stove. I've been so busy I have been in there much this winter so woodstove hasn't run much. Building it into wall works great as in the summer overhang keeps collector cool, low sun angles in winter hit it directly, never have to worry about it being covered by snow.

I'm just about to get certified to install electrical panels, not sure how much demand but it interests me

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Correct, but you need projects where the solar output can be well utilized, like the ones I cited. Otherwise the cost of trying to store the energy until it can be used adds too much to the overall project cost. If you need to store the solar heat all day until the heating demand ramps up in the evening you need big storage tanks and a place to put them, along with associated pumps and controls. The solar hot water does not work as well in most residential projects since the demand is at night in in the morning when you are getting no output so every btu needs to be stored for hours until it can be used.

I disagree with the storage issue, check my link in other post. I can understand the footprint issue with large storage but in residential, shouldn't be much of an issue

 

[goldy_331]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I disagree with the storage issue, check my link in other post. I can understand the footprint issue with large storage but in residential, shouldn't be much of an issue

Sorry I should have been more clear. I only work on larger projects so when I talk about residential I mean multi-unit housing, not single family. If I'm doing heating for an apartment building, dorm, etc. I need some large storage for domestic hot water versus the space needed for a gas fired heater. We recently did a "Green Living" dorm and most of the alternative energy stuff, including solar hot water, got cut out because it could not be justified economically, even for a State job. The need for storage was a big part of the cost issue.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Given the way natural gas prices have been dropping, I would be really curious to find out whether I could install a natural gas powered generator and use it to power the house rather than continue to pay the electric company to deliver power. Probably wouldn't do it due to noise factor but it is an interesting thought experiment.

The biggest problem I see with the electricity delivery system we have today is connecting it all together into one big grid. I wonder how much energy we lose to attenuation by sending it far distances relative to how much we could save by having a series of smaller independent grids serving regions instead one or two interconnected grids serving huge swaths of the country (our blackout in the northeast several years ago started in Ohio).

Solar, tidal, wind, geothermal, all could complement each other regionally if we didn't try to have any one of them be too big. Big solar arrays, big wind farms, each have plenty of unintended side effects.

I work with natural gas powered generators, as an engineer. I think what you would find if you looked into it is that the initial cost would be too expensive. The amount of years to payback that initial investment would be longer than it would take to require major overhauls. I doubt you'd ever be able to get ahead of it.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Sorry I should have been more clear. I only work on larger projects so when I talk about residential I mean multi-unit housing, not single family. If I'm doing heating for an apartment building, dorm, etc. I need some large storage for domestic hot water versus the space needed for a gas fired heater. We recently did a "Green Living" dorm and most of the alternative energy stuff, including solar hot water, got cut out because it could not be justified economically, even for a State job. The need for storage was a big part of the cost issue.

I understand. The tanks Tom makes are awesome, very little loss and from my experience last a lifetime

 

[BassAle]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Wrong, wrong, wrong. As cars go electric (and they will), the need for fusion will be higher than ever. 95% of transportation in the US is powered by fossil fuels. If we want to replace that with electricity, we'll need to nearly double the generation capacity in the US. It would be virtually impossible to replace the existing capacity with renewables, to say nothing of doubling it.

Don't most regions have tons of excess capacity at night? Won't most people charge their cars in their garage overnight?

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Don't most regions have tons of excess capacity at night? Won't most people charge their cars in their garage overnight?

Do the math, how much gasoline do we use, convert to watts.I've heard Dick Hill talk about this many times

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I work with natural gas powered generators, as an engineer. I think what you would find if you looked into it is that the initial cost would be too expensive.

Not having any backup generation capacity at all could potentially be even more expensive if we lose power in the winter. We have baseboard radiators throughout the house and if they were to freeze and burst, ouch! *

When I checked last winter, a natural gas generator was something like ~$4,500 to ~ $6,000 while a gasoline backup was ~ $650 - ~ $900. During Irene, we were without electricity nearly two weeks but had natural gas the entire time. Hot running water and wroking gas range but no gas oven (electric thermostat). The landline phone worked too. No cell phone service after a few days because the relay towers all lost power and the outage lasted longer than their backup battery power did.



* though I could drain the entire system manually if I had to....

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Not having any backup generation capacity at all could potentially be even more expensive if we lose power in the winter. We have baseboard radiators throughout the house and if they were to freeze and burst, ouch! *

When I checked last winter, a natural gas generator was something like ~$4,500 to ~ $6,000 while a gasoline backup was ~ $650 - ~ $900. During Irene, we were without electricity nearly two weeks but had natural gas the entire time. Hot running water and wroking gas range but no gas oven (electric thermostat). The landline phone worked too. No cell phone service after a few days because the relay towers all lost power and the outage lasted longer than their backup battery power did.



* though I could drain the entire system manually if I had to....

I think you are comparing apples and oranges with your generator pricing. The Natty gas ones are probably whole house and the gas fired one are cheap chinese knock offs that won't power a whole house.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I think you are comparing apples and oranges with your generator pricing. The Natty gas ones are probably whole house and the gas fired one are cheap chinese knock offs that won't power a whole house.

Let's do it this way, shall we?

Nat Gas Generator, $4500, 20,000 Watt: http://www.powerequipmentplus.com/S...ct-ads~33304&gclid=CLrdx-an0bwCFYVDMgodK0gAoA
Gasoline Generator, $2700, 17,500 Watt: http://www.powerequipmentplus.com/s...rac-gp17500-17500-watt-portable-generator.axd

Although SmellySeafood's numbers are a little off when it comes to pricing, he does have a point when it comes to gasoline generators being less expensive. If you think 2500 watts is worth $1800, then take a look at some of the other wattages, and you'll see that it isn't.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Let's do it this way, shall we?

Although SmellySeafood's numbers are a little off when it comes to pricing, he does have a point when it comes to gasoline generators being less expensive. If you think 2500 watts is worth $1800, then take a look at some of the other wattages, and you'll see that it isn't.

One is a whole house generator with a transfer switch, one is a portable piece of ****. price a transfer switch for a 200 amp service. Still apples and oranges. The natty gas generator won't have a fuel quality issue, the gas one will. For example leave gas in the portable one for a few years and then try to start it. You'll find out why anyone with half a brain who wants a whole generator will go with natty gas or propane and not gasoline

 

[BassAle]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Do the math, how much gasoline do we use, convert to watts.I've heard Dick Hill talk about this many times

Isn't gasoline much less efficient?

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Also, you're talking emergency standby generators there. The original post was about going away from grid and running on a generator continuously. One of those standby generators is going to destroy itself in 500 hours.