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5 dollar gas...are we ready?

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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

FlagDUDE08 said:
I do. And the funny thing is, I'm in NYS!
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Is that strange? Very close to the NJ refineries.

What really drives the difference in price between places? I assume the biggest differences come from state tax policy.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Kepler said:
Is that strange? Very close to the NJ refineries.

What really drives the difference in price between places? I assume the biggest differences come from state tax policy.
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Generally speaking, I have found NJ gas prices to be about 30 cents cheaper than NY. Most likely just additional NY taxes on gasoline.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Kepler said:
Is that strange? Very close to the NJ refineries.

What really drives the difference in price between places? I assume the biggest differences come from state tax policy.
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State tax policy, delivery costs are also a very big factor. I live near the end of a pipeline, so delivery cost is practically negligible. Whereas, if you're in a place like Alaska, they have a lot of crude, but need to get it shipped up since all the refineries are to the south.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

FlagDUDE08 said:
Whereas, if you're in a place like Alaska, they have a lot of crude, but need to get it shipped up since all the refineries are to the south.
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I would think that is textbook demand waiting for somebody to build an Alaska refinery and then dramatically undercut everybody on price, realizing a huge ROI.

Here is a list of refineries.
 
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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

MattS said:
****. I in NYS too (near Ithaca) and it's running ~$4.05 around me.
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I remember seeing that on my way down to the Corning area. The pipeline ends in this state are Syracuse, Rochester, and Owego. There's also the Seneca reservation in Cattaraugus and Chautauqua counties, but those are quite far even for you.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

LynahFan said:
For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.
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I'm not entirely sure what you're referring to when you say we can't get there on solar. I'm not expecting it to supplant 100% of our energy sources. I'm expecting a variety of other sources including fusion. I remember seeing a presentation by a researcher from MIT, CalTech, or one of the other tech giants on solar cells. The reason they are economically viable now is that they don't have the transfer efficiency from the photon to the electron. IIRC, we were hovering around 30% back in 2006(ish). I also remember the efficiency at which it becomes viable wasn't that much higher than the 30%. If we could get this up to say 50%, it would be a commercial success as it would cost about the same per kW as it does today on average. Of course, that wouldn't much help those far from the equator. SO they would need other means of either producing electricity or having the electricity transported to the higher latitudes. Which emphasizes the need to explore other forms of energy.

The problem most people have understanding solar, is they assume we're already at peak efficiency. We're not even close. It's about the same as an engine in a car. Every percent we creep up means smaller cells and a smaller fraction of land required to produce the energy. Couple this with reduction in per capita use of energy through efficiency improvements (cars, better distribution lines, better insulation, etc.) and we could get there.
 
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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

dxmnkd316 said:
I'm not entirely sure what you're referring to when you say we can't get there on solar. I'm not expecting it to supplant 100% of our energy sources. I'm expecting a variety of other sources including fusion. I remember seeing a presentation by a researcher from MIT, CalTech, or one of the other tech giants on solar cells. The reason they are economically viable now is that they don't have the transfer efficiency from the photon to the electron. IIRC, we were hovering around 30% back in 2006(ish). I also remember the efficiency at which it becomes viable wasn't that much higher than the 30%. If we could get this up to say 50%, it would be a commercial success as it would cost about the same per kW as it does today on average. Of course, that wouldn't much help those far from the equator. SO they would need other means of either producing electricity or having the electricity transported to the higher latitudes. Which emphasizes the need to explore other forms of energy.
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And there you have it - you just talked yourself out of solar-based energy as a viable replacement for all of our energy needs. If we're currently around 30% in efficiency, then we can only get a maximum of 3.33x better, but we're orders of magnitude away from viability. I'm not sure what other analogies I can use, but it's like you're trying to fill a swimming pool with a teaspoon and saying, "gee, if I only had a TABLESPOON (3x bigger), we'd be all set."

The problem most people have understanding solar, is they assume we're already at peak efficiency. We're not even close. It's about the same as an engine in a car. Every percent we creep up means smaller cells and a smaller fraction of land required to produce the energy. Couple this with reduction in per capita use of energy through efficiency improvements (cars, better distribution lines, better insulation, etc.) and we could get there.
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I assure you that this is not my problem with understanding solar - I'm one of the industry experts that the USAF turns to on matters of thermal efficiency in new aircraft designs. The problem is that we ARE close to the maximum efficiency - we're "only" 3x away from the absolute peak efficiency, but solar radiation is ~1000x too diffuse to be viable. Play around with the efficiency all you like and we still wouldn't get there. The problem that most people who favor solar have is that they usually only focus on replacing electricity generation (not total global energy usage), so they're only looking at a rather small, relatively easy part of the global energy problem - solar can't begin to scratch the surface of our current reliance on petroleum for transportation (land, sea, and air).
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

LynahFan said:
And there you have it - you just talked yourself out of solar-based energy as a viable replacement for all of our energy needs. If we're currently around 30% in efficiency, then we can only get a maximum of 3.33x better, but we're orders of magnitude away from viability. I'm not sure what other analogies I can use, but it's like you're trying to fill a swimming pool with a teaspoon and saying, "gee, if I only had a TABLESPOON (3x bigger), we'd be all set."

I assure you that this is not my problem with understanding solar - I'm one of the industry experts that the USAF turns to on matters of thermal efficiency in new aircraft designs. The problem is that we ARE close to the maximum efficiency - we're "only" 3x away from the absolute peak efficiency, but solar radiation is ~1000x too diffuse to be viable. Play around with the efficiency all you like and we still wouldn't get there. The problem that most people who favor solar have is that they usually only focus on replacing electricity generation (not total global energy usage), so they're only looking at a rather small, relatively easy part of the global energy problem - solar can't begin to scratch the surface of our current reliance on petroleum for transportation (land, sea, and air).
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Thus far nothing has been proposed that is a viable alternative to petroleum in transportation. Which should be a frightening thought to all of us. That is also why the long term trend in the price of petroleum based fuels is going to be in the upward direction (and nothing we do today is going to be able to change that trend).
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Kepler said:
I would think that is textbook demand waiting for somebody to build an Alaska refinery and then dramatically undercut everybody on price, realizing a huge ROI.

Here is a list of refineries.
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Market is not big enough. so you have a monopoly (98%) refiner Tesoro... there was an investigation few years ago because of the spike and discrepency in the gasoline prices but like the CA one being proposed, no collusion will be found and it's just all supply/demand.

renewable can replace fossile. several countries have converted 20%-40% of their energy use to renewable. And Denmark is proposing going 100% renewable by 2050.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/how-denmark-is-leading-the-way-in-renewable-energy
In 1997, Denmark held a national competition.The small island of Samso was given the nod. Because it is an island that has no conventional energy resources of its own, Samso was an ideal choice for such a controlled experiment.

Since 1998, Samso began converting its energy into renewable energy, and has been so successful that 100% of its electricity comes from wind power and 75% of its heat comes from solar power and biomass energy.

Samso’s Eco-Revolution is in danger of stalling...so the many naysayers say. Every critic of Samso’s progress ritualistically cites transportation as the missing cog in the otherwise praiseworthy renewable energy system.

Well, they’ll be eating their foot once Samso’s new projects have been put into place.

The experts on Samso will by applying two radically different concepts to tackle the transportation problem.
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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Tundra said:
renewable can replace fossile. several countries have converted 20%-40% of their <s>energy use</s>electricity generation to renewable. And Denmark is proposing going 100% renewable by 2050.
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Proposals are for politicians; execution is for engineers.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Kepler said:
I would think that is textbook demand waiting for somebody to build an Alaska refinery and then dramatically undercut everybody on price, realizing a huge ROI.

Here is a list of refineries.
Click to expand...

I think, more important than the refineries, is a map of pipelines.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Elections must be getting close, gas prices in the far West Chicago suburbs have been slowly inching down.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Kepler said:
Where? I can't think of a single place in Ithaca I wouldn't walk alone at 3 a.m. (Except Balch Hall. Now that's scary...)
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If a was female I wouldn't walk around alone anywhere near the suspension bridge at night. And as for other parts that area near 3rd street and then the Plain St. and Titus Ave. area.
 
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