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2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Paul Ryan is as interesting as buttered toast and will not even win his home state. While he'll get the corporate donors in the primary who want a country club conservative in there, the base wants red meat. Recall that Rick Sanitarium could very well have been the nominee in 2012 had he been able to attract a few more bucks to his cause. Besides, do you think the base has forgiven him for getting his @ ss kicked in a debate with a guy 50 years older than him? That debate killed all of their momentum coming out of Mittens 1st debate performance.

Paul can win a war of attrition. His father's disciples have a strong presense in the party in key early states such as Iowa and Nevada. He'll be able to continually raise money off of small donors unlike his millionaire dependent foes, and he's the only candidate who's average age of his supporters is under 65! His biggest problem IMHO is if another well funded nutter jumps in the race, and they spend all day trying to out crazy each other, thus allowing a 3rd option to sneak in.

Of course he'll get crushed in the general election with or without Hillary as the nominee, but that's not really the point, is it? The Tea Party takeover of the GOP chalks up its biggest win if they get their own nominee.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Rover said:
Paul Ryan is as interesting as buttered toast and will not even win his home state. While he'll get the corporate donors in the primary who want a country club conservative in there, the base wants red meat.
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Speaking of which, Warren is campaigning for Congressional candidates in WV and KY and getting the word out on economic populism, liberal style. I find this encouraging not because we are going to somehow flip those states in the general (we're not), or reclaim blue collar white Dems who bolted for Reagan (we're also not, because even if they're not racist they're still 80), but because the more the election issues are framed as economic opportunity and mobility, the more Brünhild is boxed in and has to at least address issues like minimum wage, attacks on unions, teachers pay, etc. Basically, just take Scott Walker's platform and invert every statement.

Maybe I'm just wishing here, but is it that hard to imagine that if there is a vocal candidate on the left hammering away at wealth inequality and the neo-feudalism that both the GOP and the DLC have led us into, that some in the TP and the conservative base will start to remember why they were so angry about TARP and the banks, and that in turn could carve out some space for a stridently anti-Wall Street Republican to run?
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

That Blumenthal abortion bill they're trying to push through the Senate is sure a doozy. Nothing like catering to the hard core pro-abortion crowd. No way it goes through, as even the few moderate Dems (or Dems in competitive elections this fall) left will want nothing to do with it. But the number of Dem co-sponsors just shows how far gone the party is. One of the most ridiculous bills I've seen introduced in many years. And one that cuts against a whole swath of Supreme Court decisions.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Bob Gray said:
And one that cuts against a whole swath of Supreme Court decisions.
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I'm thinking maybe that's the point?

The Court has tended to drape its decisions in the language of deference to legislative intent (this is a tenet of Originalism after all). In that environment, one thing to do is put a straightforward statement of pro-choice legislative intent on the record. This leaves the Court with a decision: were they simply using intent as a cover for their anti-choice agenda (strike it down with weasel words), or were they honestly trying to defer to popular sovereignty via the direct will of the legislature (uphold it, then take a shot of whiskey to dull the pain)?

A genuine pro-choice bill is going nowhere in this Congress, but if the Dems score a 2016 hat trick it will be interesting to see if they write a strong bill that makes the Furious Five put up or shut up.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I think mainly it's a crude attempt to cater to the masses who buy into the war on women PR campaign the Dems trot out, and a lot of folks will see the title of the bill and that the Reps will vote against it and not look or think any further and think it is anti-woman to vote against this monstrosity. And of course pandering to the hard care pro-abortion crowd a bit is needed to get that part of the base worked up a bit heading into the fall elections. This is election season.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Bob Gray said:
I think mainly it's a crude attempt to cater to the masses who buy into the war on women PR campaign the Dems trot out, and a lot of folks will see the title of the bill and that the Reps will vote against it and not look or think any further and think it is anti-woman to vote against this monstrosity. And of course pandering to the hard care pro-abortion crowd a bit is needed to get that part of the base worked up a bit heading into the fall elections. This is election season.
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Yes, there's a lot of Vote Theater during every election season. Both sides pander to their base with absurd bills just so they can run inflammatory ads ("Senator Bedfellow voted against a bill to disembowel accused pedophiles without trial. WHY DOES SENATOR BEDFELLOW SUPPORT PEDOPHILES???!")

But if any politician thinks the "war on women" is empty rhetoric that the GOP doesn't have to worry about by moderating their positions on a host of women's issues, they are a gift to the DCCC. This is one of those "wrong side of history" issues, like women's right to vote or desegregation or gay marriage. The train has long since left the station. We as individuals might hold these social changes as contemptible, but in a democratic society, eventually, we lose. That's why Tyrell built in a lifespan -- so we wouldn't have to live ever more uncomfortably in a world that has long since moved beyond our mores.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Yes, there's a lot of Vote Theater during every election season. Both sides pander to their base with absurd bills just so they can run inflammatory ads ("Senator Bedfellow voted against a bill to disembowel accused pedophiles without trial. WHY DOES SENATOR BEDFELLOW SUPPORT PEDOPHILES???!")

But if any politician thinks the "war on women" is empty rhetoric that the GOP doesn't have to worry about by moderating their positions on a host of women's issues, they are a gift to the DCCC. This is one of those "wrong side of history" issues, like women's right to vote or desegregation or gay marriage. The train has long since left the station. We as individuals might hold these social changes as contemptible, but in a democratic society, eventually, we lose. That's why Tyrell built in a lifespan -- so we wouldn't have to live ever more uncomfortably in a world that has long since moved beyond our mores.
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The "war on women" topic covers a variety of issues, with a variety of different trajectories. Abortion isn't one of the best ones for the Dems to push on, as our society has shown a bit of a shift toward the pro-life side of things in the recent past as science demonstrates in more and more ways that the "glob of tissue" is anything but.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Bob Gray said:
The "war on women" topic covers a variety of issues, with a variety of different trajectories. Abortion isn't one of the best ones for the Dems to push on, as our society has shown a bit of a shift toward the pro-life side of things in the recent past as science demonstrates in more and more ways that the "glob of tissue" is anything but.
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I actually agree with you in the long run, but the way the right has gone about restricting abortion has been VERY sexist, and women who would personally have ethical issues about choosing an abortion are still appalled by laws that treat them like children or criminal suspects. Abortion itself might actually be a "wrong side of history" issue the other way -- when the tech improves to the point where contraception and morning after pills are 100% fool-proof, it may be regarded as barbaric. But the GOP may be better served to no longer ride that hobby horse (see what I did there?), so hard, because the way they oppose abortion leads seemingly immediately to hysterical and toxic statements about women that won't sell outside of whatever Todd Akin's hometown is.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Bob Gray said:
Abortion isn't one of the best ones for the Dems to push on, as our society has shown a bit of a shift toward the pro-life side of things
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Really? How did that work out in 2012? If anything, that issue being brought to the forefront the way it was in 2012 was a disaster for the GOP.

I may agree with you if what you are really saying is that: I bet a pretty big majority of people would consider themselves personally pro-life (in most situations) but also pro-choice as far as laws go.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
WHY DOES SENATOR BEDFELLOW SUPPORT PEDOPHILES???!
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Wasn't he a Bloom County character?
Greatest comic since Pogo. (Anyone who wants to see the grand daddy of... who today, Colbert?... read volume 8 of the (relatively) recently republished Walt Kelly/"Pogo" strip, coverage of the '52 election and the Red Scare. It's wonderful stuff.
 
Bob Gray said:
And of course pandering to the hard care pro-abortion crowd a bit is needed to get that part of the base worked up a bit heading into the fall elections.
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I hate going into the maternity ward and seeing all the protesters shouting that the woman should have an abortion. Just the other day I was at the supermarket and some guy approached an obviously pregnant woman and gave her a pamphlet about the virtues of abortion. And have you heard about the wacko who shot an obstetrician in the head? Those pro-abortion types sure are dangerous!
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

geezer said:
Why would you want to confuse the cute little things with pie charts and whatnot? It's likely to stress their ovaries.
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Using the pie charts is really just a subversion, getting the ladies thinking about getting back into their kitchens, where they belong.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Priceless said:
I hate going into the maternity ward and seeing all the protesters shouting that the woman should have an abortion. Just the other day I was at the supermarket and some guy approached an obviously pregnant woman and gave her a pamphlet about the virtues of abortion. And have you heard about the wacko who shot an obstetrician in the head? Those pro-abortion types sure are dangerous!
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Millions of the unborn agree with that last statement.
 
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