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2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
#2 is some nutcase exploding a low yield "Suitcase from Allah" in Tel Aviv, since the response would be a mushroom cloud over Tehran and/or an Arab capitol.
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At this point, I view that as the more likely scenario. And it'll be way more than Tehran - Israel under Netanyahu (or anyone like him) will probably go apesh*t and turn half the Middle East into plate glass before anyone else can respond.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
At this point, I view that as the more likely scenario. And it'll be way more than Tehran - Israel under Netanyahu (or anyone like him) will probably go apesh*t and turn half the Middle East into plate glass before anyone else can respond.
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Yeah, I don't think any middle eastern Muslim nation will survive if someone strikes Israel like that. Seriously.

I honestly believe that if a mythical suitcase nuke goes off in a major Israeli city, I think Egypt, KSA, Yemen, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and possibly Iraq, Qatar, UAE, and the other "friendly" nations are done.

We'll be burning nuclear fuel in our cars for generations. ;)
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Me too. Nationalism plus religious fanaticism plus instability.

#2 is some nutcase exploding a low yield "Suitcase from Allah" in Tel Aviv, since the response would be a mushroom cloud over Tehran and/or an Arab capitol.
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Remember the cartoonist Jeff McNelly? Years ago he drew an elephant, wearing high tops with an Indian nuke strapped to his back. Funny and scary at the same time.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

dxmnkd316 said:
Yeah, I don't think any middle eastern Muslim nation will survive if someone strikes Israel like that. Seriously.

I honestly believe that if a mythical suitcase nuke goes off in a major Israeli city, I think Egypt, KSA, Yemen, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and possibly Iraq, Qatar, UAE, and the other "friendly" nations are done.

We'll be burning nuclear fuel in our cars for generations. ;)
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Well, somebody would be done. But I think the Israelis would determine where it came from and respond appropriately. Appropriately means nuking the country that nuked you and no other. There's no evidence they are anxious or willing to destroy millions of innocent lives.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Well, put it this way -- I worry about anybody with nukes (including us) using them, but I don't unduly worry about Russia. If I did worry about them it wouldn't be because of their populist strain, it would be their nationalism. And even then, while Russian nationalists definitely have revanchist/irredentist goals in the lost republics, nukes don't help advance those goals.
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The policy of the United States, announced repeatedly during the Cold War, was and remains no first use of nukes. However, there is a doctrine known as "launch on warning" or "launch under attack" which refers to us launching a massive retaliatory strike immediately upon detecting a Soviet launch, without evaluating the scope and targets of that attack. In other words, their missiles would hit empty silos, and they would be utterly destroyed. And even though "launch on warning" was not the policy of the United States, I can tell you we practiced it all the time. And wanted Ivan to know it. Just to introduce a little uncertainty into his planning.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Old Pio said:
The policy of the United States, announced repeatedly during the Cold War, was and remains no first use of nukes.
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I thought NATO reserved the right to use tactical nukes to stop the Warsaw Pact from coming through the Fulda Gap?
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Old Pio said:
Well, somebody would be done. But I think the Israelis would determine where it came from and respond appropriately. Appropriately means nuking the country that nuked you and no other. There's no evidence they are anxious or willing to destroy millions of innocent lives.
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I think Pio's right.

On a broader scale, I seems surprising to me that we haven't had a nuclear weapon event since Japan. We humans are too idiotic for it not to happen at some point, and with so many global conflicts involving well-armed groups with no real governmental structure to preserve, it seems a foregone conclusion. We haven't even had a nonfission dirty bomb to deal with, which I suppose is more likely from such groups.

But if the Gophers hang #8 before UND does, Grand Forks AFB will be the place to watch.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
I thought NATO reserved the right to use tactical nukes to stop the Warsaw Pact from coming through the Fulda Gap?
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Our policy is no first use, period. NATO's tactical weapons are another matter.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

burd said:
If you tilt your head, blur your eyes, twirl around and slur In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida he kinda looks like an independent guy with principles.
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I tried it, but he still seemed like a pseudo-intellectual twerp with a disgusting ideology and a lunatic father.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Something I've thought about the last few days...is it possible that we're seeing the opening shots of World War 3 over the last several weeks/months? I see no way this Russia/Ukraine conflict ends well. I think Putin is too proud to back down. The thing I can't figure out is the Islam/Israel factor. Israel is obviously an ally of the US, but is Islam an ally of anyone? If the worst case were to happen, and this explodes into an all-out world war situation, is it a 3-way war? What does China do?

Really scary stuff to think about.
 
Kepler said:
The great thing about WW3 is if I'm wrong I'll never need to apologize.
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It may not go nuclear. Only.when threatened with national extinction do I think you hit the launch button.

Of course thst assumes that the political leadership is sane and they possess all of their essence.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Why would anybody launch WWIII over 1) the Ukraine, or 2) the Middle East? For all of Putin's so-called bluster that's made him a hero in some conservative circles, I notice he's not too keen on challenging NATO for some reason. :rolleyes:
 
Rover said:
Why would anybody launch WWIII over 1) the Ukraine, or 2) the Middle East? For all of Putin's so-called bluster that's made him a hero in some conservative circles, I notice he's not too keen on challenging NATO for some reason. :rolleyes:
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All it takes is one idiot bystander to up the ante by trying to make the conflict "fair" or jumping in because somebody is getting the thit beaten out of them. Then it becomes a runaway reaction.

Sort of like the Balkans 100 years ago.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

joecct said:
It may not go nuclear. Only when threatened with national extinction do I think you hit the launch button.
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I really hope this is true. The problem with a conventional war between nuclear powers is the end game. Unless it's a stalemate, the side that's losing will be tempted to ratchet things up a little higher. Eventually you run out of conventional "higher." And if an opponent uses tactical nuclear weapons in a battlefield situation, do you respond with strategic nuclear bombing of his cities? The "doomsday" decision just gets kicked down the road.

Let's say Crazy Ivan lived up to his name this evening and just started pouring tank columns into Ukraine, didn't stop, crossed into Poland, and was making pretty good time towards the German border. Meanwhile the Russian air force took out NATO's (and whatever the EU's flying circus is) and had air superiority within the first 12 hours. Short of tactical nuclear weapons, what could the west do to halt the attack?
 
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