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2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

The hubris on the right is amazing. Yes, the GOP has drawn favorable districts. That DOES NOT make their re-election assured.

In 1992 Dems drew the districts. They lost the House two years later.

In 2002 and 2004 (thank you Tom DeLay) Republicans drew the districts. They lost the House two years later.

If your party's brand is swirling the bowl, and you represent a district where Romney won between 50-55%, you're not safe. You should win, but you could lose depending on who's running against you. All those Northern Republicans, of which there's quite a few, now have a bulls eye on their backs. Why more of these people didn't follow Peter King's lead, purely for self preservation, is beyond me.

Teabaggers in the deep South may very well be safe, but they could end up being safe in the minority in a few years (for the record I don't see the Dems winning the House in 14 but in 16 yes in a Hillary vs Rand Paul/Ted Cruz blowout).

Regarding whether this happens again in a few months, I've seen it suggested that the Dems will next push for a deadline right in the middle of election season. I've also seen that they will bring up their own wish list given what's happened in the court of public opinion. Not sure the GOP wants to have this fight in 2014. All things being even it should be a good year for them. Start reminding the public why they dislike them so much and that might change (see 1998).
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

joecct said:
You have less than a 10% chance of being defeated in either the primary or the general. You think anyone in Congress is worried? Of the 430 or so seats in the House, how many are considered swing seats?

So why bother to listen to your constituents? They're pulling the lever based on party, not the person. The Congressman is voting for party, not district.
Click to expand...

I'll bet lots of the Rinos find Tea party types running in the primarys against them. Should be fun.:)
 
joecct said:
You have less than a 10% chance of being defeated in either the primary or the general. You think anyone in Congress is worried? Of the 430 or so seats in the House, how many are considered swing seats?

So why bother to listen to your constituents? They're pulling the lever based on party, not the person. The Congressman is voting for party, not district.
Click to expand...

If that is true then why are they folding?
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Cruz: "I hope in time the Senate begins to listen to the American people."

Like on mandatory background check for all gun sales? Or immigration reform? Is that what Terrible Ted is getting behind?
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

walrus said:
I'll bet lots of the Rinos find Tea party types running in the primarys against them. Should be fun.:)
Click to expand...

I've already see on Twitter that they said Boehner caved and someone should primary him. Fetch me the "Brace Yourself" meme.
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

walrus said:
I'll bet lots of the Rinos find Tea party types running in the primarys against them. Should be fun.:)
Click to expand...


So being a self-professed Libertarian, is a Rino or a Tea Party type closer to your views?

Seems like you're looking forward to the Rinos getting TP'd... but I could be reading that wrong.


Or do you just wanna see the world burn? :D
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Rover said:
The hubris on the right is amazing. Yes, the GOP has drawn favorable districts. That DOES NOT make their re-election assured.

In 1992 Dems drew the districts. They lost the House two years later.

In 2002 and 2004 (thank you Tom DeLay) Republicans drew the districts. They lost the House two years later.

If your party's brand is swirling the bowl, and you represent a district where Romney won between 50-55%, you're not safe. You should win, but you could lose depending on who's running against you. All those Northern Republicans, of which there's quite a few, now have a bulls eye on their backs. Why more of these people didn't follow Peter King's lead, purely for self preservation, is beyond me.

Teabaggers in the deep South may very well be safe, but they could end up being safe in the minority in a few years (for the record I don't see the Dems winning the House in 14 but in 16 yes in a Hillary vs Rand Paul/Ted Cruz blowout).

Regarding whether this happens again in a few months, I've seen it suggested that the Dems will next push for a deadline right in the middle of election season. I've also seen that they will bring up their own wish list given what's happened in the court of public opinion. Not sure the GOP wants to have this fight in 2014. All things being even it should be a good year for them. Start reminding the public why they dislike them so much and that might change (see 1998).
Click to expand...

Rover

You seem to imply that gerrymandering is strictly a Republican practice. Please. Maryland has gerrymandered 2 GOP seats out in the past two redistricting efforts. If they could find a way to gerrymander the Eastern Shore with Baltimore, they'd do it to wipe out the last GOP district.

Massachusetts kept their boys and girls safe, too.

C'mon Man!
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Gurtholfin said:
.


Or do you just wanna see the world burn? :D
Click to expand...
. Both the Tea and Rino have a social agenda that is ignorant, that blows it for both of them right from the start. I guess it has to be a case by case basis. I'd say I have little in common with either. Wait till they sign the Immigration bill, the world as we know it will indeed burn
 
Gurtholfin said:
Or do you just wanna see the world burn? :D
Click to expand...

Did you see the bit on MSNBC that compared Boehner to Bane and Ted Cruz to the Joker?

"This country deserves a better class of criminal and I'm going to give it to them."
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

At the House Republican caucus today John Boehner received a standing ovation.
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

The final procedural test has come and gone. The cloture motion on the deal is passing the Senate now. 83-15 is the final vote on cloture. Now comes the vote on the bill.

ETA
Voting against cloture: Cruz Lee Toomey Vitter Roberts Johnson(WI) Sessions Cornyn Shelby Heller Paul Enzi Risch Paul Crapo.


On the full bill they were joined by Coburn Rubio Scott

Final vote: 81-18
 
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Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Priceless said:
At the House Republican caucus today John Boehner received a standing ovation.
Click to expand...

Slate had a sort of devil's advocate column today praising Boehner's leadership, saying he got everything he expected to going in while also saving his own speaker skin by the way he masterfully delayed until the last second to prove his party cred. (*sigh*)
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Sigh. The House just took up the bill and now they start an hour of yapping. After that they might start voting. Expect to hear from the Republicans an awful lot about this "income verification" for people who apply for the subsidy because it's the only thing they kind of accomplished in the 15 day shutdown. And really, this was already in the bill anyway, they just changed the language.

Thank you Teapublicans.
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

Finally! It has passed. There are still 80 votes to go but the bill already has 240 yes votes.
I love that time has expired, yes there are still dozens of votes yet to be cast....
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

The final vote in the House was 285-144.
All 198 Democrats voted for the bill. 87 Republicans joined them.
144 Teapublicans in the House and 18 in the Senate voted for a continued government shutdown and economic Armageddon.

Be sure to thank a Democrat for the fact that the government is open and we didn't default on the our bills. If it was up to the Republicans, we'd still be shuttered and the meltdown would start in 90 minutes.
 
Re: 2nd Term, Part VI: Burnin' down the House

There was some drama on the House floor tonight though. A stenographer went nuts. She had to be physically restrained and removed from the House.
 
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