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2026 Elections: To the Midterms and Beyond!

psych said:
I got some bad news…those of us who live down here and care about those people have cut fentanyl overdoses in half recently. I’m sorry, America.
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You do the detox part, they have to do the recovery part. I have my own issues that I get therapy and do work to address, but I can't work someone else's program of recovery for them, so I don't try.
 
FiftyPlusOne latest Senate aggregate advantages: (* flip)

Dems flip 6 seats.

10.4 NC Cooper
9.7 GA Ossoff
7.0 NH Pappas
4.5 MI El-Sayed
3.8 MN Flanagan
3.8 OH Brown *
2.8 AK Peltola *
2.6 TX Talarico *
2.3 ME Jackson *
1.6 KS Hamilton *
0.8 IA Turek *

Fasc on track to protect 2 at risk seats:

-1.5 NE Osborn
-1.5 SC Andrews
 
Kepler said:
FiftyPlusOne latest Senate aggregate advantages: (* flip)

Dems flip 6 seats.

10.4 NC Cooper
9.7 GA Ossoff
7.0 NH Pappas
4.5 MI El-Sayed
3.8 MN Flanagan
3.8 OH Brown *
2.8 AK Peltola *
2.6 TX Talarico *
2.3 ME Jackson *
1.6 KS Hamilton *
0.8 IA Turek *

Fasc on track to protect 2 at risk seats:

-1.5 NE Osborn
-1.5 SC Andrews
Click to expand...

I think that’d be seven flips, sir. NC has two R senators, Budd and Tillis.
 
Kepler said:
FiftyPlusOne latest Senate aggregate advantages: (* flip)

Dems flip 6 seats.

10.4 NC Cooper
9.7 GA Ossoff
7.0 NH Pappas
4.5 MI El-Sayed
3.8 MN Flanagan
3.8 OH Brown *
2.8 AK Peltola *
2.6 TX Talarico *
2.3 ME Jackson *
1.6 KS Hamilton *
0.8 IA Turek *

Fasc on track to protect 2 at risk seats:

-1.5 NE Osborn
-1.5 SC Andrews
Click to expand...
Cooper would be a flip too.

I’m still going to standby my prediction that the Senate ends up something like 50/50 or 51/49 in favor of R.

I think Ds get NC for sure and then maybe one or 2 of TX, ME, AK, and OH.. I’m guessing just enough Republicans will “come home“ on election day.

On the House side guessing Democrats will end up with a 15 to 20 seat advantage or somewhere in that range.
 
Kepler said:
FiftyPlusOne latest Senate aggregate advantages: (* flip)

Dems flip 6 seats.

10.4 NC Cooper
9.7 GA Ossoff
7.0 NH Pappas
4.5 MI El-Sayed
3.8 MN Flanagan
3.8 OH Brown *
2.8 AK Peltola *
2.6 TX Talarico *
2.3 ME Jackson *
1.6 KS Hamilton *
0.8 IA Turek *

Fasc on track to protect 2 at risk seats:

-1.5 NE Osborn
-1.5 SC Andrews
Click to expand...
It seems Talarico's polling is starting to slip with 3 weeks to go, no surprise there. Jackson is edging downward as well - the fashies are coming home to roost, scandals be damned. Surprised Brown is still up by almost 4 points.
 
Dumpy called Alaska "Canada" yesterday and the idiots in Wasilla cheered him.

I wish Alaska was part of Canada at this point.
 
Boston_E said:
Cooper would be a flip too.

I’m still going to standby my prediction that the Senate ends up something like 50/50 or 51/49 in favor of R.

I think Ds get NC for sure and then maybe one or 2 of TX, ME, AK, and OH.. I’m guessing just enough Republicans will “come home“ on election day.

On the House side guessing Democrats will end up with a 15 to 20 seat advantage or somewhere in that range.
Click to expand...

What about Alaska? Looks like Peltola might just pull that one out. That’s two. The best of the rest, in my opinion, is Maine, just based on its blue tint. That said, I know we have voters like Drew, who should be voting D in that race without blinking if he actually wants universal healthcare, continue to have hard-ons for Collins and her lack of outstate-money.
 
psych said:
What about Alaska? Looks like Peltola might just pull that one out. That’s two. The best of the rest, in my opinion, is Maine, just based on its blue tint. That said, I know we have voters like Drew, who should be voting D in that race without blinking if he actually wants universal healthcare, continue to have hard-ons for Collins and her lack of outstate-money.
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Maine is going to elect Collins, Sucks but the amount of money thats been spent on dissing Jackson has been unreal. I'm guessing Lepage wins 2nd district also
 
psych said:
What about Alaska? Looks like Peltola might just pull that one out. That’s two. The best of the rest, in my opinion, is Maine, just based on its blue tint. That said, I know we have voters like Drew, who should be voting D in that race without blinking if he actually wants universal healthcare, continue to have hard-ons for Collins and her lack of outstate-money.
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Yeah - i put AK in that group of 4 that I think we get 1 or 2 of.

Despite the blue tint, i actually think ME is going to be harder to get than TX or AK. Collins is just so established and honestly Troy Jackson just does not seem to have that same populist charisma that seems to be making the difference in elections. I think someone on this thread said that Jackson just does not seem to have "it" in the same way Platner did.

It sounds crazy to say given how much of a red state Texas is, but I actually think that after NC, TX is the best chance. Paxton is a historically flawed candidate and Talarico has "it".

Or who knows, maybe my instinct is totally wrong, and Dems flip all of them.
 
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walrus said:
Maine is going to elect Collins, Sucks but the amount of money thats been spent on dissing Jackson has been unreal. I'm guessing Lepage wins 2nd district also
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I was up in Maine for a few days for work - and have to say i didn't sense any tangible enthusiasm for Jackson.
 
Boston_E said:
I was up in Maine for a few days for work - and have to say i didn't sense any tangible enthusiasm for Jackson.
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One thing, Jackson has done well with the 3 debates, one more to go. Collins has shown she isn't very quick anymore and jackson hasnt been afraid to call her out.
 
Boston_E said:
Yeah - i put AK in that group of 4 that I think we get 1 or 2 of.

Despite the blue tint, i actually think ME is going to be harder to get than TX or AK. Collins is just so established and honestly Troy Jackson just does not seem to have that same populist charisma that seems to be making the difference in elections. I think someone on this thread said that Jackson just does not seem to have "it" in the same way Platner did.

It sounds crazy to say given how much of a red state Texas is, but I actually think that after NC, TX is the best chance. Paxton is a historically flawed candidate and Talarico has "it".

Or who knows, maybe my instinct is totally wrong, and Dems flip all of them.
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I see you put AK now. Anyways, I think outside of NC, AK is seen as the best pickup by most national forecasters, to the point some places like Sabato's Crystal Ball have it as Leans Democratic rather than a toss-up like Maine, Texas, or Ohio. That's 50-50. OH, TX, ME, take your pick, if Democrats take 1 of 3 they have control of the Senate. Polymarket has Talarico at 64% win, Brown at 57%, and Jackson at 56%.
 
psych said:
I see you put AK now. Anyways, I think outside of NC, AK is seen as the best pickup by most national forecasters, to the point some places like Sabato's Crystal Ball have it as Leans Democratic rather than a toss-up like Maine, Texas, or Ohio. That's 50-50. OH, TX, ME, take your pick, if Democrats take 1 of 3 they have control of the Senate. Polymarket has Talarico at 64% win, Brown at 57%, and Jackson at 56%.
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Correct me if I’m counting wrong but if D’s win NC, AK and 1 of TX, ME, OH… doesn’t that make it 50-50? And then Vance is the tie breaking vote?

(This of course nothing flips into the R column too like MI or NH)
 
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