2025 NCAA WIH Pairwise Predictor

[TonyTheTiger20]

Hello everyone, this year's Pairwise Predictor is now live! As always, there are a lot of changes year over year so it's possible there could be some unsquashed bugs. If you see anything that doesn't look right, shoot me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail, or just post in this thread.

Happy 10th anniversary to the Predictor! Hope you all enjoy --

What If? The 2025 NCAA Women’s Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor

*Be patient after making changes. Due to the number of iterations needed, it can take several seconds for the sheet to recalculate. Results will only update once all dropdowns are filled. Be sure...

www.bcinterruption.com

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

The sheet's been updated with the quarterfinal winners who have advanced so far, so there are about half as many inputs needed now.

Note I had forgotten to swap UConn and BU as the 1 and 2 seeds in Hockey East after BU choked it away the last weekend of the regular season. I have that fixed.

 

[BowWowWow]

I am enjoying experimenting with the predictor. Thanks for that, TTT20!

It looks like, after Clarkson's win today, the 8th-place team in NPI, St. Lawrence, and the 9th-place team in NPI, Clarkson, are numbered, vice versa, 9 and 8 on USCHO's Pairwise. I think this is because Clarkson wins a head-to-head. A BC win in their next game potentially helps Clarkson too. This would be because of the Golden Knights' wins against them this season.

Looking ahead to the NCAA first round, the committee will have to move one team if both 8 and 9 end up being from the same conference. I'm guessing they'd move #9.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

I am enjoying experimenting with the predictor. Thanks for that, TTT20!

It looks like, after Clarkson's win today, the 8th-place team in NPI, St. Lawrence, and the 9th-place team in NPI, Clarkson, are numbered, vice versa, 9 and 8 on USCHO's Pairwise.

Correct -- it's partially because of the head to head point for the extra win, but Clarkson also has the Common Opponents point over SLU as well, and that combined with the H2H beats the one NPI point.

I think this is because Clarkson wins a head-to-head. A BC win in their next game potentially helps Clarkson too. This would be because of the Golden Knights' wins against them this season.

Hey now, BC got those wins over Clarkson this year! haha -- but your point still stands, it doesn't matter who got the wins, BC winning their tournament games would help Clarkson's strength of schedule.

 

[BowWowWow]

Correct -- it's partially because of the head to head point for the extra win, but Clarkson also has the Common Opponents point over SLU as well, and that combined with the H2H beats the one NPI point.

Hey now, BC got those wins over Clarkson this year! haha -- but your point still stands, it doesn't matter who got the wins, BC winning their tournament games would help Clarkson's strength of schedule.

Oh right -- sorry! Credit to the BC Eagles for getting those wins over Clarkson; yes, it still affects Clarkson's strength of schedule.

 

[spwood]

Thank you for this... I've been monitoring Penn State's precarious position for the last couple of weeks in case they don't win the AHA Auto-bid. I think with Friday night's results, the Nittany Lions are in win or lose.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Thank you for this... I've been monitoring Penn State's precarious position for the last couple of weeks in case they don't win the AHA Auto-bid. I think with Friday night's results, the Nittany Lions are in win or lose.

Glad you've gotten good use out of it!

 

[ARM]

TTT's all-WCHA Frozen Four is still mathematically alive. Can't SLU and Clarkson play in a neutral rink on Wednesday night? Then only the winner would have to fly to Madison. Think of the precious dollars the NCAA could save.

I'm guessing the Badgers will find another gear next weekend. Otherwise, this version of UW would only be about a 70/30 favorite over a North Country opponent.

Could see an all Big Ten quarter in Columbus. How big a favorite would tOSU be in that one? It might be closer than we'd have thought.

If UMD survives vs NEWHA champ, the 'Dogs would have to be a ... wait for it ... 'dog at Cornell. Not a huge underdog, but they'd lose that match on the roal more times than they'd win it. Goals figure to be at a premium.

As usual, the #4 vs #5 is close to a pick 'em. Very similar offenses, but Colgate has a clear edge defensively. Maybe having to travel and play in an unfamiliar barn partially offsets that. Should be a one-goal game, unless the hosts figure they've played their best weekend of hockey in the league tourney and decide to take the game off.

I still don't seen an all-WCHA FF, but because the math doesn't say it's impossible, there's at least some chance.

 

[joecct]

I THINK it plays out this way

at Madison
10 BU v 8 Clarkson. Winner plays 1 Wisconsin

at Columbus
9 SLU v 7 Penn State. Winner plays 2 Ohio State

at Ithaca
11 Sacred Heart plays 6 Minnesota-Duluth. Winner plays 3 Cornell

at St. Paul
5 Colgate v 4 Minnesota. Winner stays there.

 

[BowWowWow]

I THINK it plays out this way....

Yep, I think so. And SLU-Penn State would be a rematch of their first-round game in last year's NCAA tournament, with Penn State as the higher seed this time.

TTT's all-WCHA Frozen Four is still mathematically alive.

While UMD has not stayed in the top 5, where TTT envisioned they might end up, this at least means they won't be able to eliminate Minnesota in the expected 4-vs-5 game....

I still don't seen an all-WCHA FF, but because the math doesn't say it's impossible, there's at least some chance.

If anything, perhaps, Cornell's rise, as reflected in their Pairwise #3 position and their play of late, does make this seem less likely.

 

[joecct]

Yep, I think so. And SLU-Penn State would be a rematch of their first-round game in last year's NCAA tournament, with Penn State as the higher seed this time.


While UMD has not stayed in the top 5, where TTT envisioned they might end up, this at least means they won't be able to eliminate Minnesota in the expected 4-vs-5 game....


If anything, perhaps, Cornell's rise, as reflected in their Pairwise #3 position and their play of late, does make this seem less likely.

But Minnesota IS playing an ECAC team.

 

[BowWowWow]

But Minnesota IS playing an ECAC team.

True, I concur.

Your bracket prediction above was correct. Also, last year's national tournament was a rare one in which no upsets happened throughout the tournament. Will that be the case this year too? I know 10 teams and their fans who hope that it is not!

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Remembering the last time the tunnelers had a non-conference match-up this year...4 goals on 6 shots in the first period against pennyante state. Bodes well for toothpaste.

 

[Steamboat]

Remembering the last time the tunnelers had a non-conference match-up this year...4 goals on 6 shots in the first period against pennyante state. Bodes well for toothpaste.

Agreed. How will the coaching staff get this team ready for a 'mere' east coast team? In past years there was too much hubris that the mighty WCHA would sweep all before them. Hopefully there won't be a repeat of the first matchup with Clarkson, where the Gophers played from behind all game.

 

[cct78]

Agreed. How will the coaching staff get this team ready for a 'mere' east coast team? In past years there was too much hubris that the mighty WCHA would sweep all before them. Hopefully there won't be a repeat of the first matchup with Clarkson, where the Gophers played from behind all game.

I think you may be mixing up last year’s game in Potsdam with the 2017 national semifinal. In the 2017 game, Clarkson never trailed. Last year, in a classic I attended, Clarkson took its first lead in the 4th overtime. In the 2014 national championship game, Minnesota took the early lead, before Clarkson stormed back for the 5-4 victory.

 

[Steamboat]

Thanks, I will check the boxscore for 2014. I just remember watching it in shock, because it seemed like the Gophers were always on their back foot. Clarkson was the number 2 team that year in all the statistics. I was pumped to see the national #1 versus the national #2. The Gophers were totally unprepared for the level of play that Clarkson brought. Maybe that is why I think the Gophers were behind all game.

 

[Steamboat]

Time for the poll on who will win it all. Who will start it this year?

 

[BowWowWow]

Time for the poll on who will win it all. Who will start it this year?

Good thinking - thanks. I put a poll in the Polls category for women's college hockey (top of the page). That was the only place where a poll choice was showing up. I've only included the first-round games so far!