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2025 Bracketology: The Road to TBD!

P

Pioneer247

Member
Now that the USCHO has added the NPI to the website, we can start with our bracketology updates for 2025. Per the usual, points% is the factor used to determine conference auto-bids right now, as teams have not played the same amount of games.

Round one of bracketology gives us a very rarely seen 8/5 split in East/West, which makes for a very interesting bracket to start off with, but to make it work with mileage and such, this is what we've got

Auto-Bids:

CNE: Curry (7)
MAC: Wilkes (11)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
MIAC: Saint Mary’s (31)
NCHA: Trine (5)
NEHC: Hobart (2)
NESCAC: Hamilton (14)
SUNYAC: Oswego (22)
UCHC: Geneseo (1)
WIAC: UW-Superior (30)

At-Large:

St. Norbert (3)
Utica (4)
Aurora (6)

Round 1:

Saint Mary’s @ UW-Superior
Plymouth State @ Geneseo
Oswego @ Hobart
Hamilton @ Utica
Wilkes @ Curry

QF:

Saint Mary’s/UW-Superior @ St. Norbert
Aurora @ Trine
Plymouth State/Geneseo v. Wilkes/Curry
Oswego/Hobart v. Hamilton/Utica
 
Ther're 14 teams in the tournament now. Add #8 trinity to the at-large https://www.uscho.com/2024/04/18/nca...s-to-12-teams/ Also interesting to note they left the pariwise on the website for the womens side and u can see sos has a much greater impact now. Plattsburghs top 15 sos moves them up 3 spots from pairwise to npi whereas arcadia's bottom 20 sos moves them down 3 spots. quality win bonuses also seem to have a much greater impact for the top 10 teams than it does everyone else
 
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=Lord_Zubin;n3913131]Ther're 14 teams in the tournament now. Add #8 trinity to the at-large https://www.uscho.com/2024/04/18/nca...s-to-12-teams/ Also interesting to note they left the pariwise on the website for the womens side and u can see sos has a much greater impact now. Plattsburghs top 15 sos moves them up 3 spots from pairwise to npi whereas arcadia's bottom 20 sos moves them down 3 spots. quality win bonuses also seem to have a much greater impact for the top 10 teams than it does everyone else
Click to expand...

You're correct yes, and throwing Trinity in makes a very messed up bracket if you're trying to maintain bracket integrity while also adhering to the mileage rules

CNE: Curry (7)
MAC: Wilkes (11)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
MIAC: Saint Mary’s (31)
NCHA: Trine (5)
NEHC: Hobart (2)
NESCAC: Hamilton (14)
SUNYAC: Oswego (22)
UCHC: Geneseo (1)
WIAC: UW-Superior (30)

At-Large:

St. Norbert (3)
Utica (4)
Aurora (6)
Trinity (8)

Round 1:

Saint Mary’s @ St. Norbert
UW-Superior @ Aurora
Trine @ Hobart
Plymouth State @ Curry
Oswego @ Trinity
Hamilton @ Wilkes

QF:

UW-Superior/Aurora @ Saint Mary’s/St. Norbert
Trine/Hobart @ Geneseo
Hamilton/Wilkes @ Utica
Oswego/Trinity @ Plymouth State/Curry
 
Div III hockey is testing my resolve for auto-bids with this lineup. Four teams higher than #20 and #8 & #9 are left home. I'm not there yet, but I've started thinking about it (not that my opinion means anything at all of course!) Too many small conferences really waters down a 14 team tournament.
 
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Regarding the bracket, I know on the women's side, they are trying to protect the top four seeds at all costs, in terms of giving them a bye. After that, it seems like it's the usual "save money at all costs" technique, but they did add that to this year's manual. I don't see any verbiage like that in the men's manual, but I am confident they will try to protect 1 and 2 first and foremost by giving them a bye at the very least. Who they play next round may not matter, but I do think that will be the priority.

Any ideas on a bracket with Geneseo and Hobart given byes?
 
The interesting thing is right now the NCHA would have three teams in and none of them are Adrian. There is a good possibility the NCHA could get four teams in and create an 8-6 split.
 
spwood said:
Div III hockey is testing my resolve for auto-bids with this lineup. Four teams higher than #20 and #8 & #9 are left home. I'm not there yet, but I've started thinking about it (not that my opinion means anything at all of course!) Too many small conferences really waters down a 14 team tournament.
Click to expand...

Here is a good example why auto bids should continue in all college sports : unranked America East champion Vermont is the D1 Men's Soccer national champion. I think they definitely deserved to be there !
 
Though this is all fun and games at this stage of the season, it is my limited understanding of NPI that it can change more drastically from game to game than PWR ever did. So predictions of how many teams from a conference or who on the bubble may or may not get in is ever more precarious than in the past.
 
WCHornet said:
Here is a good example why auto bids should continue in all college sports : unranked America East champion Vermont is the D1 Men's Soccer national champion. I think they definitely deserved to be there !
Click to expand...

Sure, VT deserved to be there, but not pursuant to some silly AQ... They were #1 RPI on the 16th.
 
WCHornet said:
After they upset four higher ranked teams.. They got that far because of the AQ, or they would not have been selected.
Click to expand...

I don't follow soccer, but there were 26 AL bids available. Hard to imagine they wouldn't have received one regardless of the AE tournament.
 
First update for 2025! Trying to put this together was a lot of fun, and if we look at a split of East/West like this come March, some people won't be happy with the results, but this is my interpretation of what we have

CNE: Curry (5)
MAC: Wilkes (13)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (27)
MIAC: Saint Mary’s (25)
NCHA: Trine (4)
NEHC: Hobart (1)
NESCAC: Hamilton (11)
SUNYAC: Oswego (15)
UCHC: Geneseo (2)
WIAC: Superior (18)

At-Large:

Utica (3)
Aurora (6)
Adrian (7)
St. Norbert (8)


With an 8/6 Split, the easiest thing to do was create a pod of 3 with Geneseo and two West teams that could travel to them to stay under 500 miles. In this full scenario, the number 1 and 2 in the NPI get the byes, which is a good outcome


“West-ish” Region:

Adrian @ Trine
Winner plays @ Geneseo for spot in FF


Saint Mary’s @ Aurora
Superior @ St. Norbert

Winners play each other for spot in FF


East Region:

Wilkes @ Hamilton
Winner plays @ Hobart for spot in FF


Plymouth State @ Utica
Oswego @ Curry

Winners play each other for spot in FF
 
Bracketology for games played through 1/12:

CNE: Curry (4)
MAC: Wilkes (27)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (23)
MIAC: Gustavus (25)
NCHA: Trine (7)
NEHC: Hobart (1)
NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
SUNYAC: Oswego (15)
UCHC: Geneseo (3)
WIAC: UW-Superior (18)

At-Large:

Utica (2)
Adrian (5)
Aurora (6)
St. Norbert (8)

First Round:

Trine @ Adrian
Gustavus @ Aurora
UW-Superior @ St. Norbert
Wilkes @ Utica
Plymouth State @ Curry
Oswego @ Hamilton

QF:

Oswego/Hamilton @ #1 Hobart
Plymouth State/Curry @ Wilkes/Utica
Trine/Adrian @ #3 Geneseo
UW-Superior/St. Norbert @ Gustavus/Aurora
 
AI know I’m feeding into Fish here (Sorry all!), but how does a team like Wilkes (27), especially after what two CNE teams did to them this week end in Plattsburgh? UNE and Wentworth are not even the top two teams in the league. UNE can be a very good team at times. They can also stink the joint out at times too. Check the tape of the first 5 minutes of the Colby game as exhibit A.

Wentworth is a tough team to figure.

Any way, congrats to the CNE ona very good weekend in upstate New York!
 
AI know I’m feeding into Fish here (Sorry all!), but how does a team like Wilkes (27), especially after what two CNE teams did to them this week end in Plattsburgh? UNE and Wentworth are not even the top two teams in the league. UNE can be a very good team at times. They can also stink the joint out at times too. Check the tape of the first 5 minutes of the Colby game as exhibit A.

Wentworth is a tough team to figure.

Any way, congrats to the CNE ona very good weekend in upstate New York!
 
Pioneer247 said:
Bracketology for games played through 1/12:

CNE: Curry (4)
MAC: Wilkes (27)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (23)
MIAC: Gustavus (25)
NCHA: Trine (7)
NEHC: Hobart (1)
NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
SUNYAC: Oswego (15)
UCHC: Geneseo (3)
WIAC: UW-Superior (18)

At-Large:

Utica (2)
Adrian (5)
Aurora (6)
St. Norbert (8)

First Round:

Trine @ Adrian
Gustavus @ Aurora
UW-Superior @ St. Norbert
Wilkes @ Utica
Plymouth State @ Curry
Oswego @ Hamilton

QF:

Oswego/Hamilton @ #1 Hobart
Plymouth State/Curry @ Wilkes/Utica
Trine/Adrian @ #3 Geneseo
UW-Superior/St. Norbert @ Gustavus/Aurora
Click to expand...

Quick question: Aren't Adrian/Trine not allowed to play each other in the first round game as conference opponents? Really curious, as I've heard different things on this.
 
VTpucksouteast said:
Quick question: Aren't Adrian/Trine not allowed to play each other in the first round game as conference opponents? Really curious, as I've heard different things on this.
Click to expand...

That was something new put into the men's guide either this year or last year I believe.

It's been in the women's one for a very long time.
 
VTpucksouteast said:
Quick question: Aren't Adrian/Trine not allowed to play each other in the first round game as conference opponents? Really curious, as I've heard different things on this.
Click to expand...

In theory yes, but the only way the bracket works from a mileage perspective is to have two NCHA teams face off in Round 1. If they choose to give up mileage and give a team a flight, then you'd have options, but my process assumes they never will do that

But also, assume the NCHA will beat up on one another and will ultimately not have 4 teams make the field, so hopefully by the end we're not having to have this conversation
 
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