2024 Pairwise Predictor

[BowWowWow]

Still without knowing who's in the first round, I'm thinking they won't need to move any teams to avoid in-conference matchups for the Thursday games. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 ECAC team, probably 2. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 WCHA team, maybe 2 in the unlikely case UM drops to 6th. They won't be in a bracket in a way where they play in-conference.

The WCHA and ECAC each have 4 teams in no matter what. That seems pretty even. (St. Cloud State is out, though they looked good to me in the parts of games I streamed.) The remaining 3 teams will be tournament champions of Hockey East, CHA, and NEWHA in some order. Is this deduction accurate?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Still without knowing who's in the first round, I'm thinking they won't need to move any teams to avoid in-conference matchups for the Thursday games. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 ECAC team, probably 2. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 WCHA team, maybe 2 in the unlikely case UM drops to 6th. They won't be in a bracket in a way where they play in-conference.

The WCHA and ECAC each have 4 teams in no matter what. That seems pretty even. (St. Cloud State is out, though they looked good to me in the parts of games I streamed.) The remaining 3 teams will be tournament champions of Hockey East, CHA, and NEWHA in some order. Is this deduction accurate?

I think all of this is right. With the bottom 3 seeds being WHEA/CHA/NEWHA, that would mean there's zero possibility of a first round intraconference matchup in the 6/11 7/10 and 8/9 games. The 4/5 is allowed to be an intraconference game no matter what. So yeah -- I think we should see bracket integrity maintained regardless of what happens in any of the games with 4/4/1/1/1 representation.

 

[robertearle]

I updated the calculator to include games already played for less input.

Looking at BC's tournament possibilities should they win the league, because I enjoy suffering, I am pleasantly surprised to see that I can get Clarkson to #2 if Minnesota beats Wisconsin in the semifinal and Clarkson wins the ECAC (sending #10 BC to #2 Clarkson's regional). Would be nice to be able to go watch BC in the tournament in person (though obviously, long way to go to get to that point).

Playing with the other results, I can't quite get Colgate to #2 -- though I can get them to within 0.00009 of it!

With or without BC winning HE: start with defaults, have Minnesota lose today to Mankato, have Wisconsin lose to Duluth ---> Colagte #2.

 

[ARM]

So yeah -- I think we should see bracket integrity maintained regardless of what happens in any of the games with 4/4/1/1/1 representation.

How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

With or without BC winning HE: start with defaults, have Minnesota lose today to Mankato, have Wisconsin lose to Duluth ---> Colagte #2.

Wow totally forgot Minnesota wasn't done -- thanks!

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.

There is no travel consideration anymore, fortunately. So they will keep everyone in their Pairwise position unless they need to move people around in their seeding "band" to avoid intraconference matchups.

 

[BowWowWow]

How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.

True that only #1-#5 are numerically assigned a seed. This empty 2024 bracket has numbers on only those seeds, but sounds like the lack of seeds on 6-11 is mostly a technicality and/or due to the intraconference question.

On that bracket, I think the regional first-round game at the top is unofficially the 8/9 game; in the middle, the 6/11 game; and, at the bottom, the 7/10 game.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

True that only #1-#5 are numerically assigned a seed. This empty 2024 bracket has numbers on only those seeds, but sounds like the lack of seeds on 6-11 is mostly a technicality and/or due to the intraconference question.

On that bracket, I think the regional first-round game at the top is unofficially the 8/9 game; in the middle, the 6/11 game; and, at the bottom, the 7/10 game.

Yep that's right. The handbook actually words things kind of weirdly all around... they talk about the top 4 seeds all being #1 seeds, but also having individual seeds lol...

Page 15 of 19: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...key/nc/women/2023-24NCWIH_PreChampsManual.pdf

 

[QuasiCosmos]

With Minnesota winning today, is it safe to conclude that all eight teams remaining in the ECAC and WCHA tournaments will make the NCAA tournament, wih only ranking placements being dependent on the results of the two league tournaments?

 

[BowWowWow]

With Minnesota winning today, is it safe to conclude that all eight teams remaining in the ECAC and WCHA tournaments will make the NCAA tournament, wih only ranking placements being dependent on the results of the two league tournaments?

Yes! Seems like it to me. This is what I'm finding currently for seeding possibilities for those 8 teams:
Ohio State 1, Wisconsin 2-3, Clarkson 2-4, Colgate 3-5, Minnesota 3-5, Cornell 5-7, St. Lawrence 6-8, Minn. Duluth 7-8

 

[vicb]

True that only #1-#5 are numerically assigned a seed. This empty 2024 bracket has numbers on only those seeds, but sounds like the lack of seeds on 6-11 is mostly a technicality and/or due to the intraconference question.

On that bracket, I think the regional first-round game at the top is unofficially the 8/9 game; in the middle, the 6/11 game; and, at the bottom, the 7/10 game.

The way I read it if you just go by strictly the Pairwise Rankings 1 thru 11.

#1 plays the winner of the #8 vs #9
#2 plays the winner of the #7 vs #10
#3 plays the winner of the #6 vs #11
#4 plays #5

As long as #1 thru 4 win, then
#1 plays #4
#2 plays #3

If an upset occurs then #1 plays the lowest remaining seed.

 

[vicb]

If all the favorites win out this weekend (NE vs UConn, Wisco vs tOSU, Clarkson vs Colgate and Champs are UConn, tOSU, Colgate and Stonehill) according to the Pairwise Predictor this is the final Pairwise Rankings

1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Colgate
4) Clarkson
5) Minnesota
6) Cornell
7) St Lawrence
8) Minn Duluth
9) UConn
10 Penn State
11) Stonehill

8 Minn Duluth--|
-----------------|---> 1 Ohio State
9 U Conn-------|

7 St Lawrence--|
-----------------|---> 2 Wisconsin
10 Penn State--|

6 Cornell-------|
-----------------|---> 3 Colgate
11 Stone Hill---|

5 Minnesota @ 4 Clarkson

I'm not sure I see any reason for the committee to fool around with these pairings.

 

[Sierra]

Duluth and St. Lawrence would have a higher percentage of being moved. It would be the 6 time tOSU might have to play them and it's a flight. The committee can move them around if they choose.

 

[BowWowWow]

The way I read it if you just go by strictly the Pairwise Rankings 1 thru 11.

#1 plays the winner of the #8 vs #9
#2 plays the winner of the #7 vs #10
#3 plays the winner of the #6 vs #11
#4 plays #5

As long as #1 thru 4 win, then
#1 plays #4
#2 plays #3

If an upset occurs then #1 plays the lowest remaining seed.

This is correct for the first round and if favorites win; however, if an upset occurs, there is no re-seeding, unlike in the conference tournaments. Otherwise, last season, for example, Wisconsin rather than Northeastern would have played Ohio State in the Frozen Four semifinals, as Wisconsin was 6, and Northeastern 5, Minnesota 2, and Ohio State 1. Here is a version of the NCAA info that's only the bracket.

I think that there are no travel considerations or considerations of how often teams have played each other this season for where they are placed, Sierra.

 

[Sierra]

When tOSU won the National Championship they switched #7 Quinnipiac to #8 and sent them to tOSU. This is why they have a committee...maybe they don't but it's not set in stone. The committee can make changes.

 

[BowWowWow]

When tOSU won the National Championship they switched #7 Quinnipiac to #8 and sent them to tOSU. This is why they have a committee...maybe they don't but it's not set in stone. The committee can make changes.

Agreed it may not be set in stone.

I read that the reason that the committee switched the 7 and 8 seeds in 2022 is that, if the 7 seed was determined according to Pairwise, Quinnipiac would have played an intraconference game with another ECAC team in the 1st round. It's not related to the quarterfinals with Ohio State, though -- they at least state that they don't make changes because of those matchups. In the booklet that TonyTheTiger posted, in section 2.4 in "Seedings & Pairings," the changes the NCAA talks about making -- compared to their formulas relating to win percentage, NPI, head-to-head, and common opponents -- are generally about avoiding intraconference matchups in the first round ("Seedings & Pairings" point 5).

They do say, though, at the bottom of the previous page, "When comparing two teams, the committee reserves the right to weight criteria differently based on relative team performance." I do hope that this type of change doesn't cause the committee to make the bracket in a less transparent way.

 

[Timothy A]

If all the favorites win out this weekend (NE vs UConn, Wisco vs tOSU, Clarkson vs Colgate and Champs are UConn, tOSU, Colgate and Stonehill) according to the Pairwise Predictor this is the final Pairwise Rankings

8 Minn Duluth--|
-----------------|---> 1 Ohio State
9 U Conn-------|

I'm not sure I see any reason for the committee to fool around with these pairings.

Me either, I'm very fond of this match-up. Or does an EZAC team have a better chance against them than UMD? We'll get a preview Friday.

 

[Timothy A]

If all the favorites win out this weekend (NE vs UConn, Wisco vs tOSU, Clarkson vs Colgate and Champs are UConn, tOSU, Colgate and Stonehill) according to the Pairwise Predictor this is the final Pairwise Rankings

1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Colgate
4) Clarkson
5) Minnesota
6) Cornell
7) St Lawrence
8) Minn Duluth
9) UConn
10 Penn State
11) Stonehill

8 Minn Duluth--|
-----------------|---> 1 Ohio State
9 U Conn-------|

7 St Lawrence--|
-----------------|---> 2 Wisconsin
10 Penn State--|

6 Cornell-------|
-----------------|---> 3 Colgate
11 Stone Hill---|

5 Minnesota @ 4 Clarkson

I'm not sure I see any reason for the committee to fool around with these pairings.

Milewski thinks they'll give OSU the 7-10 and UW the 8-9 due to travel considerations of PSU and UMD. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me since then you are really saying UW is 1 and OSU is 2, which is clearly not the case.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Milewski thinks they'll give OSU the 7-10 and UW the 8-9 due to travel considerations of PSU and UMD. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me since then you are really saying UW is 1 and OSU is 2, which is clearly not the case.

Does he not know they don't have travel as a consideration anymore?

 

[Sierra]

Travel is one factor of this equation. The 2nd factor is the fact tOSU will have played Duluth 5 times this year. Depending on this weekend it could be back to back for the 6th time. Instead of a different opponent, lets fly Duluth all the way down to tOSU and potentially play a 6th time. The number 1 team in the country has earned the right to play against some fresher competition. Colgate will play Cornell only for the 3rd time this weekend. So playing them in their 1st round would be the 4th time for the year. WI would play Duluth for the 5th time. tOSU has a case to be made to the committee. When you are the number 1 team in the country you've earned that voice. tOSU has earned the right to play a different team. Why bust your a## all season to just play your own league in the NCAAs ... The Hockey East champion can beat Duluth. Im just saying that the number 1 team in the county should not have to see their own league in their first game till the frozen 4. What's the motivation to be #1 ?