2024 Pairwise and Tournament Qualification Thread

[ticapnews]

Wait.....HEA quarterfinals are single game? So, the entire HEA tournament is single elimination?

Correct.

 

[BC/HE]

Not likely to happen but if a bunch of those teams on the bubble all lose and St Cloud gets swept in their 2 games but still winds up 14th would they be ineligible for the tournament because of a losing record?

 

[OldAlum]

Sorry I had been going by CHN's convoluted tournament page which left an open spot after the Michigan/Notre Dame game due to game 3 of Ohio State/Wisconsin that did not take into consideration the reseeding so I thought that series was not over yet. Of course Michigan is now in over the loser of that Hockey East series. Their concern is more of outliers getting autobids. The ECAC is ripe for that should Quinnipiac lose but it may take one more from Hockey East, NCHC or B1G; all highly unlikely. I put it in as an afterthought while discussing the NCHC which now is even more helpful to Hockey East as CC lost to Denver and now must play Western Michigan at least twice.

If we consider a team with a current Pairwise of 16 or below as 'out of the bubble', then we already have the CCHA and AHA conference champions using up a NCAA championship slot. Could also happen with ECAC, as you have pointed out already.

 

[LordofBrewtown]

At the time of the quoted post, MI had already played and swept Notre Dame.
The Big10 semifinals are a single game.
Even if MI loses its game next weekend, it's hard to see them falling below 13 by selection time. Meaning they are in a good (though not certain) position to make the tournament.

Has anyone run scenarios? I originally thought that Michigan might be safe too; but, looking at the pairwise, the RPI's of 10-15 are so close, and pairwise currently isn't lining up by straight RPI in that range. I'm wonder what, if any comparisons could get flipped. I'm thinking that someone other than Q wins the ECAC, so need to be at 13 to be safe. The fact those RPI's are so close make me think Michigan can't feel too safe with a loss.

 

[Numbers]

New set of realities.....
#1s: BC, BU, and two of NoDak, Denver, Mich State.
#2s: The other 1 from the first line, plus, Minnesota, and two of Quinnipiac, Maine, and Wisconsin.
#3s: The other 1 from the previous line, plus.......
HUGE LOGJAM of Michigan, CC, Omaha, Western Michigan, Providence, Mass, and SCSU.

With Wisconsin losing, Minnesota has to be a huge favorite for a #2. There might be some strange scenario that causes them to miss, but they play Michigan this week, just one game, and it's hard to imagine their RPI falling enough from one loss to a highly ranked team to cause them to fall below UW in the PWR.

Massachusetts and Providence play each other, and that is likely an elimination game, as noted by other posters above.

 

[Bronco Hockey Fan]

Omaha goes to CC. Western Michigan is going to St. Cloud.

 

[J.D.]

Well, we would have absolute chaos if things ended as is. Took me a while to get to this after a few switches.

Providence:

1. BC (1)
2. Quinnipiac (8)
3. Wisconsin (9)
4. Bemidji State (16)

Springfield (UMass host):

1. Denver (4)
2. Maine (7)
3. Michigan (11)
4. Providence (13)

Sioux Falls (Omaha host):

1. BU (2)
2. Minnesota (6)
3. Colorado College (10)
4. Omaha (14)

Missouri:

1. North Dakota (3)
2. Michigan State (5)
3. Western Michigan (12)
4. RIT (15)

Not fair at all to BU but if the committee sticks to their stupid rule of avoiding an intra conference game in round one at all costs this is the best you could do.

 

[Scarlet]

What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?

 

[sigx15]

What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?

It’s really dumb but it’s because the NCAA is so rigid about not having intra conference matchups in the first round so ND can’t play Omaha or BU can’t play Providence and Omaha being the host forces BU out to Sioux Falls. The big thing you’d want as a BU fan to end up in Springfield is for Omaha to fall out of the tournament which means St Cloud continue to win. I’m not running all the game simulations but I know St Cloud getting in over Omaha would probably land BU in Springfield

 

[Numbers]

What happened last night to cause this? And what should we root for to happen to get BU back to Springfield?

As sigx15 said, Omaha falling out of the field clarifies things, as long as UMass is also out.
Alternatively, if Omaha wins again, and moves up to a #3 seed, that would also allow NoDak to stay in Sioux Falls.
Another way is for Mich State or Minnesota to be a #1, and then they could go to Sioux Falls and play Omaha.

But, as I mentioned above, UMass in the field also limits BU's options.

 

[Scarlet]

I should have been more clear in my earlier post. I know why BU would get sent out west. Before last night’s games, however, BU was still targeted for Springfield. Was it Omaha’s loss last night? Something else? A combination of games? I know the UMass-Providence today game is important, too. Any games out west that need to go BU’s way to get them back in Springfield is what I’m asking. Other than, of course, BU winning its game.

 

[Numbers]

I should have been more clear in my earlier post. I know why BU would get sent out west. Before last night’s games, however, BU was still targeted for Springfield. Was it Omaha’s loss last night? Something else? A combination of games? I know the UMass-Providence today game is important, too. Any games out west that need to go BU’s way to get them back in Springfield is what I’m asking. Other than, of course, BU winning its game.

OK. What BU needs to stay in the east is 2 things:
1) Omaha does NOT end up as a #4 seed. How that happens? It was Omaha losing to CC last night that dropped them from a 3 to a 4 and that pushes BU out west. Easiest way for Omaha to NOT be a 4 is if they win the next 3 games in a row. Alternatively, if they lose again tonight, they could easily end up OUT of the tourney.

2) UMass not being a 4 seed either. Easy way? Root for Providence tonight.

 

[Scarlet]

OK. What BU needs to stay in the east is 2 things:
1) Omaha does NOT end up as a #4 seed. How that happens? It was Omaha losing to CC last night that dropped them from a 3 to a 4 and that pushes BU out west. Easiest way for Omaha to NOT be a 4 is if they win the next 3 games in a row. Alternatively, if they lose again tonight, they could easily end up OUT of the tourney.

2) UMass not being a 4 seed either. Easy way? Root for Providence tonight.

This is the answer I was looking for, thanks. Gah! Stupid hosting schools!

 

[BC/HE]

I don't think the scenario presented sends BU west as the NCHC has 5 teams in that field and the avoidance of the intraconference match up no longer applies. What may be intriguing is that there may still be a possibility of both Providence and UMass getting in but probably only if UMass wins. The fact that the NCHC series goes best of three could keep Providence in the field with losses by some of those teams as the margin is very slim now.

 

[Numbers]

I don't think the scenario presented sends BU west as the NCHC has 5 teams in that field and the avoidance of the intraconference match up no longer applies. What may be intriguing is that there may still be a possibility of both Providence and UMass getting in but probably only if UMass wins. The fact that the NCHC series goes best of three could keep Providence in the field with losses by some of those teams as the margin is very slim now.

While I would agree with this according to the strict wording of the 5-team rule, historically it is true that only when the 5 teams were all 1 and 4 seeds, or 2 and 3 seeds, were exceptions made.

So, the rule is really: No intraconference games in Round 1, unless there is no way to avoid them without changing the seeds. 1, 2, 3, and 4 seed bands take precedence.

As I write, Mass is beating Prov. So, we might see how this actually works out.

At 6:30 EDT, March 16, UMass is a #3, but Omaha is a #4, so it's still chaos. In fact, Omaha and WMU are both #4s, so the overall 1 and 2 would have to play the #13 and #14 teams. And, overall #3 and #4 would get the AHA and CCHA champions.

 

[Liveatjrl]

What a headache / logjam of Big 10 teams in the 2/3 seeds causing a mess after tonight's results. It's going to be very interesting to see how the brackets turn out and it's not looking like it would be anywhere close to a 1-16 bracket integrity.

 

[gambs]

As I write, Mass is beating Prov. So, we might see how this actually works out.

At 6:30 EDT, March 16, UMass is a #3, but Omaha is a #4, so it's still chaos. In fact, Omaha and WMU are both #4s, so the overall 1 and 2 would have to play the #13 and #14 teams. And, overall #3 and #4 would get the AHA and CCHA champions.

How do you figure UMass as a 3-seed? They’re 14 in the PairWise.

 

[Liveatjrl]

How do you figure UMass as a 3-seed? They’re 14 in the PairWise.

He posted that update before the other HE, B10 and NCHC games finished so teams moved around even more since then.

I would wait and see what happens to the PWR after tomorrow night's games and we should have a better picture of where teams will end up.

 

[J.D.]

I'll give my nightly stab, only thing I was debating on and pulled the trigger was flipping the locations of Quinnipiac and Minnesota games. You could do Minnesota to Sioux Falls as well.

Providence:

1. BC (1)
2. Quinnipiac (7)
3. Wisconsin (9)
4. Bemidji State (16)

Springfield (UMass host):

1. Denver (4)
2. Maine (6)
3. Michigan (10)
4. UMass (14)

Sioux Falls (Omaha host):

1. North Dakota (3)
2. Michigan State (5)
3. Omaha (12)
4. RIT (15)

Missouri:

1. BU (2)
2. Minnesota (8)
3. Western Michigan (11)
4. Colorado College (13)

 

[ticapnews]

As soon as the conference quarters wrap up tomorrow the Pairwise Predictor will come online and we'll be able to predict all the games and see the results.

https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/