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2024 Pairwise and Tournament Qualification Thread

N

Numbers

New member
Maybe a few weeks early, because we can all follow the PWR and see what's happening, but I thought it was an interesting time to start this, since the bubble of the PWR currently looks like this (Saturday Feb 10 after MIN-PSU went final):

12: Providence.......RPI = 5584
13: Michigan..........RPI = 5570
14(t): Cornell.........RPI = 5563
14(t): St Cloud.......RPI = 5562

That is so close in the RPI that between Mich, Corn and SCSU it could go back and forth even based on other teams' games all night.

Anyone have comments on remaining schedules?
Predictions?
 
Prediction?

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Numbers said:
Maybe a few weeks early, because we can all follow the PWR and see what's happening, but I thought it was an interesting time to start this, since the bubble of the PWR currently looks like this (Saturday Feb 10 after MIN-PSU went final):

12: Providence.......RPI = 5584
13: Michigan..........RPI = 5570
14(t): Cornell.........RPI = 5563
14(t): St Cloud.......RPI = 5562

That is so close in the RPI that between Mich, Corn and SCSU it could go back and forth even based on other teams' games all night.

Anyone have comments on remaining schedules?
Predictions?
Click to expand...

Yup A Northeastern win over BU and one win at Maine pushes the into the top 15
 
To keep this from getting lost, because I am sure we will need it later....

Right now there is a large gap between #9 and #10 in the PWR. I suppose, therefore, that the following are fairly clear at this point:

BC, NoDak, and BU will get #1 seeds, which means that NoDak goes to Sioux Falls.
Wisc, Mich State, Maine and Denver will race for the other #1
Minn and Quinn are almost sure to make the field in one fashion or another, with the likely high limit for each being a #2 seed.

Then, the trouble comes in:
U-Mass, WestMich, Providence, St Cloud, Cornell, Michigan and Colo Coll all have high enough RPIs that each has a good chance at one of the at-large bids.

Very likely, New Hampshire and Omaha and anyone else below them will need to win their conference tournament.

And, CCHA and AHA will be one-bid conferences.
 
Numbers said:
To keep this from getting lost, because I am sure we will need it later....

Right now there is a large gap between #9 and #10 in the PWR. I suppose, therefore, that the following are fairly clear at this point:

BC, NoDak, and BU will get #1 seeds, which means that NoDak goes to Sioux Falls.
Wisc, Mich State, Maine and Denver will race for the other #1
Minn and Quinn are almost sure to make the field in one fashion or another, with the likely high limit for each being a #2 seed.

Then, the trouble comes in:
U-Mass, WestMich, Providence, St Cloud, Cornell, Michigan and Colo Coll all have high enough RPIs that each has a good chance at one of the at-large bids.

Very likely, New Hampshire and Omaha and anyone else below them will need to win their conference tournament.

And, CCHA and AHA will be one-bid conferences.
Click to expand...

One week later, and nothing much has really changed.
 
March 2 in the morning, and the only thing really clarified is that Cornell has fallen out of the race for at-large bids.
Also, Maine no longer is in real consideration for a #1.

So...
BC, BU, NoDak will be #1s.
Wisc, Denver and MichState are the candidates for the last #1 seed
Minnesota, Quinnipiac and Maine will be in the field.
U-Mass, Prov, WestMich, St Cloud, Colo Coll, Michigan all candidates for at-large bids.

Everyone else.....win your conference tournament.
 
Unless UMass beats Maine in the final regular season game the talk of Hockey East getting 5 teams in the tournament is unlikely now. Providence will play UMass in the Hockey East quarterfinal and the loser may drop below the cut line unless someone else falls flat too.
 
At this moment, with CC v Denver still being played, UMass has fallen to the 15th spot. My rough guess of brackets right now:
PROV BC Maine Michigan Bemidji
SPRINGFIELD BU Wisco Qpac Western Mich
SOUTH DAKOTA North Dakota Minn CC Prov
StLOUIS Denv MichSt Omaha RIT.

Swaps made to avoid Mich v Wisc and Western v Denv in first rounds.
 
There is one wrench in the PWR that could help one of those Hockey East teams stay in if they lose. That is most other tournaments have best of 3 quarterfinals and a team getting swept there picks up 2 losses which could move them below a one loss Hockey East loser. Also two of the contenders St Cloud and Omaha must play each other so one must lose twice more. Western Michigan will play either CC or Denver which could make either WMU or CC vulnerable. Michigan has 2 against Notre Dame and a sweep by ND would hurt Michigan a lot.
 
BC/HE said:
There is one wrench in the PWR that could help one of those Hockey East teams stay in if they lose. That is most other tournaments have best of 3 quarterfinals and a team getting swept there picks up 2 losses which could move them below a one loss Hockey East loser. Also two of the contenders St Cloud and Omaha must play each other so one must lose twice more. Western Michigan will play either CC or Denver which could make either WMU or CC vulnerable. Michigan has 2 against Notre Dame and a sweep by ND would hurt Michigan a lot.
Click to expand...

Good points on those extra games.. Michigan swept ND, after winning again tonight, so that series is over. I doubt Michigan (#10 in PW) will fall much if they lose to a higher seeded Wisconsin, Minnesota or Michigan State.
 
BC/HE said:
There is one wrench in the PWR that could help one of those Hockey East teams stay in if they lose. That is most other tournaments have best of 3 quarterfinals and a team getting swept there picks up 2 losses which could move them below a one loss Hockey East loser. Also two of the contenders St Cloud and Omaha must play each other so one must lose twice more. Western Michigan will play either CC or Denver which could make either WMU or CC vulnerable. Michigan has 2 against Notre Dame and a sweep by ND would hurt Michigan a lot.
Click to expand...

At the time of the quoted post, MI had already played and swept Notre Dame.
The Big10 semifinals are a single game.
Even if MI loses its game next weekend, it's hard to see them falling below 13 by selection time. Meaning they are in a good (though not certain) position to make the tournament.
 
Code: 
 [TABLE="border: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
 	 		[TR]
 			[TD="width: 86"]Missouri[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"]Providence[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"]Sioux Falls[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"]UNO[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"]Springfield[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 86"]UMASS[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Denver[/TD]
 			[TD]4[/TD]
 			[TD]Boston C[/TD]
 			[TD]1[/TD]
 			[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
 			[TD]3[/TD]
 			[TD]Boston U[/TD]
 			[TD]2[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Mich State[/TD]
 			[TD]5[/TD]
 			[TD]Maine[/TD]
 			[TD]8[/TD]
 			[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
 			[TD]6[/TD]
 			[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
 			[TD]7[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Colorado Col[/TD]
 			[TD]11[/TD]
 			[TD]Michigan[/TD]
 			[TD]10[/TD]
 			[TD]Omaha[/TD]
 			[TD]12[/TD]
 			[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
 			[TD]10[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Providence[/TD]
 			[TD]14[/TD]
 			[TD]AHA/CCHA[/TD]
 			[TD]16[/TD]
 			[TD]AHA/CCHA[/TD]
 			[TD]15[/TD]
 			[TD]West Mich[/TD]
 			[TD]13[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 	 [/TABLE]

The nightmare (or dream) scenario is Omaha finish as a #4 seed and NoDak and Denver are both #1's. For now, that is averted.
 
Stauber1 said:
At the time of the quoted post, MI had already played and swept Notre Dame.
The Big10 semifinals are a single game.
Even if MI loses its game next weekend, it's hard to see them falling below 13 by selection time. Meaning they are in a good (though not certain) position to make the tournament.
Click to expand...

Sorry I had been going by CHN's convoluted tournament page which left an open spot after the Michigan/Notre Dame game due to game 3 of Ohio State/Wisconsin that did not take into consideration the reseeding so I thought that series was not over yet. Of course Michigan is now in over the loser of that Hockey East series. Their concern is more of outliers getting autobids. The ECAC is ripe for that should Quinnipiac lose but it may take one more from Hockey East, NCHC or B1G; all highly unlikely. I put it in as an afterthought while discussing the NCHC which now is even more helpful to Hockey East as CC lost to Denver and now must play Western Michigan at least twice.
 
Oooo I didn't realize Omaha was the host in Sioux Falls. At least in the current rankings that doesn't provide much of a headache.
 
Omaha and St Cloud have a series. St. Cloud is at home. There is a decent chance that SCSU wins that series 2-1. If so, I think it's possible that Omaha ends up a #4 seed.
Of course, a SCSU sweep might take Omaha out of the field altogether.

Western Michigan and CC also play each other. A sweep would be damaging for the loser.

Mass and Prov play each other. Loser of the series is likely out.

And, it seems Michigan is now safe.

Seed Lines:
#1s: BC, BU, and then, since NoDak was sweep by Omaha, it's now possible for them to fall to a #2, the last 2 #1s will go to NoDak, Den, MSU
#2s: See above, plus Minn, Wisc, Maine and Quinn all in the mix here. Quinn gets an 'easy' series vs RPI this week, which won't help them much, and will hurt them if they don't sweep.
#3s and #4s: All too tight to call except that everyone mentioned in the #2s line won't be a 4.

By Conference: B10, HEA, NCHC all 4.....ECAC, AHA, CCHA all 1. Possible 5th for HEA or NCHC.
 
Numbers said:
Omaha and St Cloud have a series. St. Cloud is at home. There is a decent chance that SCSU wins that series 2-1. If so, I think it's possible that Omaha ends up a #4 seed.
Of course, a SCSU sweep might take Omaha out of the field altogether.

Western Michigan and CC also play each other. A sweep would be damaging for the loser.

Mass and Prov play each other. Loser of the series is likely out.

And, it seems Michigan is now safe.

Seed Lines:
#1s: BC, BU, and then, since NoDak was sweep by Omaha, it's now possible for them to fall to a #2, the last 2 #1s will go to NoDak, Den, MSU
#2s: See above, plus Minn, Wisc, Maine and Quinn all in the mix here. Quinn gets an 'easy' series vs RPI this week, which won't help them much, and will hurt them if they don't sweep.
#3s and #4s: All too tight to call except that everyone mentioned in the #2s line won't be a 4.

By Conference: B10, HEA, NCHC all 4.....ECAC, AHA, CCHA all 1. Possible 5th for HEA or NCHC.
Click to expand...

This will be one game
 
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