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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

psych said:
It’s not the polling. It’s the actual voting in Montana. Trump secured 343,000 votes in 2020. Biden received 244,000. Tester received 253,000 in 2018. He’s never been on the ballot with Trump before. If anyone is able to overcome a 90,000 Trump voter advantage, it’s Jon Tester. But you can understand the heavy lift and why he’s an underdog.
Click to expand...

This is a good analysis.
 
psych said:
It’s not the polling. It’s the actual voting in Montana. Trump secured 343,000 votes in 2020. Biden received 244,000. Tester received 253,000 in 2018. He’s never been on the ballot with Trump before. If anyone is able to overcome a 90,000 Trump voter advantage, it’s Jon Tester. But you can understand the heavy lift and why he’s an underdog.
Click to expand...

I think Montana is a state that could split tickets...and the last rally Trump had there was smaller than the crowd at a Bemidji State game...and they beat the traffic.

Some states are weird like that. If someone from Montana was running I would say it is 70-30 at best for Tester. A rich dude from Minnesota? I think Montana is too insular for that. We will see though. Tester seems to be out pressing the flesh like it is a mayoral race so who knows how it goes.
 
Handyman said:
I think Montana is a state that could split tickets...and the last rally Trump had there was smaller than the crowd at a Bemidji State game...and they beat the traffic.

Some states are weird like that. If someone from Montana was running I would say it is 70-30 at best for Tester. A rich dude from Minnesota? I think Montana is too insular for that. We will see though. Tester seems to be out pressing the flesh like it is a mayoral race so who knows how it goes.
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They have some oddities for sure given population. They have towns dying due to no labor pool. Insurance is going up like crazy and I’m wondering if some people blame the R gov for it. Not actually sure.

but tester would not be the first great man to lose to a buffoon. Not only do I want Montana to keep tester but I want the democratic party to keep him because he can really speak to some populations that we struggle reaching

(I know you know all this :) )
 
Last edited:
NY Times continuing its bad polling:

https://www.threads.net/@tombonier/p...oGOtCwtWXrfzQg

The latest NYT poll in WI has an implausibly GOP sample, beyond showing Trump +18, it shows Trump +12 in 2020 with these voters. Just a hunch, but the WI voter file has some of the worst age coverage of any state, and I wonder if that contributed.
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Despite that Harris leads the poll by 2 (MOE is 4) if I read right so...

Lol dx Trafalgar is now saying they are going to put out battleground polls soon to offset "garbage" polls showing Harris doing well :rolleyes::cool::eek:
 
Handyman said:
NY Times continuing its bad polling:

https://www.threads.net/@tombonier/p...oGOtCwtWXrfzQg



Despite that Harris leads the poll by 2 (MOE is 4) if I read right so...

Lol dx Trafalgar is now saying they are going to put out battleground polls soon to offset "garbage" polls showing Harris doing well :rolleyes::cool::eek:
Click to expand...

lol. I thought I read somewhere that NYT/Sienna had Wisconsin 18-29 go +29 for Trump or something like that. A swing of like 40 points. Just absurd absurd absurd absurd.

look, if it it's not we're all hyperfucked. But I'll deal with that mushroom cloud when I see it.

edit. Omfg it's even funnier



- 18-29 year olds are voting for TRUMP by 18 points
- 30-44yo are voting for HARRIS by 21 points
- the 44-59yo are voting for TRUMP by 9 points
- the 60+yo are voting for HARRIS by 15 points


edit 2: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
61% of 18-29 are homeowners.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
lol. I thought I read somewhere that NYT/Sienna had Wisconsin 18-29 go +29 for Trump or something like that. A swing of like 40 points. Just absurd absurd absurd absurd.

look, if it it's not we're all hyper****ed. But I'll deal with that mushroom cloud when I see it.

edit. Omfg it's even funnier



- 18-29 year olds are voting for TRUMP by 18 points
- 30-44yo are voting for HARRIS by 21 points
- the 44-59yo are voting for TRUMP by 9 points
- the 60+yo are voting for HARRIS by 15 points


edit 2: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
61% of 18-29 are homeowners.
Click to expand...

Oh man that's great! That tells me they did zero polling in Madison!

NYT/Sienna is now Trafalgar.
 
How do you put that out in good faith? Better yet how do honest people cover it like it is legit?

The media is so broken.
 
The Trump 18-29 line is a 50 point swing from last month, (+32 Harris Aug, +18 Trump Sep)

This shit is literally useless. It's engagement farming for clicks by a formerly serious newspaper
 
Handyman said:
How do you put that out in good faith? Better yet how do honest people cover it like it is legit?

The media is so broken.
Click to expand...

Broken? They are doing exactly what they need to. First of all, people are consuming the bad news. Second of all, the closer the race appears to be, the more people donate to the campaigns. An almost all of those dollars go to advertising. On the various media outlets that are making you mad by misleading you into being angry or thinking the race is so close.

The real problem is that the media has a vested interest into making the race super, super close. Or at least appear to.

Media isn't news, it's entertainment. Who need income to survive. How else could you explain mainstream media giving so much room to a person who really wants to take away their rights to tell the news?
 
BS they want rights as a Free Press...this is not journalism worthy of that. If the Times wants to be entertainment then they should label themselves as such.
 
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