What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Early results in Alaska show the Democrat Mary Peltola leading as expected, though not by as much as expected, but there hasn’t been any count from rural districts that are expected to go heavily towards her. Experts seem to be expecting ~45% for her (not bad for someone who had almost zero advertising).

The surprise is Begich losing to Palin for second place, and not just losing but losing by nearly 5 points. Koch Industries spent a lot of money to not even get 30%. It’s also a big worry for Republicans because if Palin finishes ahead there’s a real worry she won’t get enough transfer votes to beat Peltola.

Anyway, it’ll be another two weeks as they wait for absentee ballots to arrive and then do the second round to see who wins.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Early results in Alaska show the Democrat Mary Peltola leading as expected, though not by as much as expected, but there hasn’t been any count from rural districts that are expected to go heavily towards her. Experts seem to be expecting ~45% for her (not bad for someone who had almost zero advertising).

The surprise is Begich losing to Palin for second place, and not just losing but losing by nearly 5 points. Koch Industries spent a lot of money to not even get 30%. It’s also a big worry for Republicans because if Palin finishes ahead there’s a real worry she won’t get enough transfer votes to beat Peltola.

Anyway, it’ll be another two weeks as they wait for absentee ballots to arrive and then do the second round to see who wins.
Click to expand...

With the general only being a few months later is the field essentially the same as this special election?
 
The general assumption right now is Palin will win because Begich’s votes will just transfer to her, which is a good assumption but one I’m kind of skeptical on. I get the whole “Republicans will just pick the other Republican” thing but Palin is deeply unpopular among a good portion of the population here and there’s a good chance a good portion of Begich’s votes either ranked Peltola second or, more likely, left the second choice blank.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
But…but…the silent majority durrrrrrr

this data can’t make the nazis feel good right now. Better find new ways to purge or suppress voters

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1...p_17VYHz9pEh2A
Click to expand...

God if only these trends continued and these people show up at the polls.

I believe it to be apocryphal (and I could be wrong) but a lot of people claim that various anti-marriage equality bills on ballots in 2004 helped drive voter turnout of republicans and aided in W's re-election. Thinking about that leaves me wondering if putting specific things on November's ballots, especially in purple states, regarding preserving women's access to safe healthcare or enshrining a right to choose in a state consitution is what we really need to drive people to the polls. It's one thing to remind people that they can vote for politicians who believe that women have brains and deserve to control their own bodies and overall not treating them like cattle or property, but maybe we need more than that.
 
Jimjamesak said:
The general assumption right now is Palin will win because Begich’s votes will just transfer to her, which is a good assumption but one I’m kind of skeptical on. I get the whole “Republicans will just pick the other Republican” thing but Palin is deeply unpopular among a good portion of the population here and there’s a good chance a good portion of Begich’s votes either ranked Peltola second or, more likely, left the second choice blank.
Click to expand...

From what I’ve read a lot of the outstanding vote is from heavily Dem areas as well. Not sure how many votes it will get since it’s rural areas, but not often the Dem is even in contention.

How did a Begich end up as a Republican in Alaska?
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
God if only these trends continued and these people show up at the polls.
Click to expand...

What, besides overt pessimism, tells you they won't. Its been trending this way for months now and I highly doubt people registered so they can wait in line for the primaries...
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
From what I’ve read a lot of the outstanding vote is from heavily Dem areas as well. Not sure how many votes it will get since it’s rural areas, but not often the Dem is even in contention.
Click to expand...
It won’t be a huge amount but it’ll be enough to push Peltola’s numbers well into the 40s. The other surprise is how well she’s doing in a low turnout election too. Turnout was only around 25% for this election.

Spartanforlife4 said:
How did a Begich end up as a Republican in Alaska?
Click to expand...
I don’t really know. If I had to guess he’s probably just an opportunist who saw a path to power.

Hilarious that he’s getting beat though, he has spent a lot of his (family) money and a lot of funding from Americans For Prosperity to finish third.
 
I assume after the GOP gets done stopping non-whites from voting they'll start the repeal of the 19th Amendment cuz the Bible.
 
Speaking of the Bible, saw an interesting yard sign today on my walk.

I live near a church- don’t even know what kind, don’t care- I just know it’s not catholic. But the house next to it has a yard sign directly facing church that said “people of faith for reproductive rights”
 
I don't put much faith into polling but the non-specific crosstabs about demographics and preferences, combined with the enormous increase in women registering since Dobbs does give me some hope.
 
FiveThirtyEight with some mostly good analysis on the Alaska races. Their thoughts on the House race are much the same as mine, if Begich finishes third it's a crapshoot on where his votes will go but if Palin (somehow) finishes third then Begich will win. Their Senate analysis is mostly on point, Tshibaka is at her ~40% ceiling while Murkowski is in great shape going into the RCV election (for the record I'm Chesbro 1 and Murkowski 2 in November). Their Governor analysis is waaaaaaaaaaay off though, almost no one who is voting for Walker is going to rank Dunleavy as their 2. Dunleavy has also probably hit his max number in this primary like Tshibaka.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top