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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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Kepler said:
Worst I get is push-polling that's so dumb not even a Republican would probably fall for it.
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I got two questions into what was allegedly a "non-partisan" survey regarding Oakland County and suddenly they were asking how I felt about "Stand Your Ground" laws and red light traffic cams, neither of which are legislated at the county level (especially not the former). I didn't sense any pushing, but I'm still not giving them my data.
 
Minor upset in Iowa as retired Admiral Mike Franken beat former US Rep. Abby Finkenauer for the right to lose to Grassley this fall. I'd characterize it as personableness winning out over identity. Main thing Finkenauer had going for her was being a young female to contrast with Grassley. But between the unforced errors with her nominating petition, her ridiculous comments about the district judge in that case, and her ability to take even a simple "how's it going?" and respond with a political answer, and I think people were looking for an alternative.

No other surprises in the primary at the state level. The GOP overwhelmingly backed the establishment candidate over the 2 nutjobs to take on Axne in IA-3. The national pundits believe the district shifted right in redistricting, but it's going to come down to Polk and Dallas Counties same as ever. If Axne basically ties in Dallas and wins Polk by 40,000, it's over. If she wins Polk by 30,000 or less and loses Dallas by more than 10%, she'll be in trouble. Anything in between and it'll be close.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
What are the odds Grassley loses? Close to zero?
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Yeah. Barring an unforseen event that shifts the electorate left, the Dems are clearly playing defense in Iowa this year. They'll be happy if they hold Axne's congressional seat and keep the state AG, Treasurer, and Auditor.

I think that's all doable, but I don't see any gains anywhere except for maybe a state house seat or two that got shifted closer to the urban centers due to redistricting.
 
unofan said:
Yeah. Barring an unforseen event that shifts the electorate left, the Dems are clearly playing defense in Iowa this year. They'll be happy if they hold Axne's congressional seat and keep the state AG, Treasurer, and Auditor.

I think that's all doable, but I don't see any gains anywhere except for maybe a state house seat or two that got shifted closer to the urban centers due to redistricting.
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I figured. The cost of diesel and gas probably aren't helping either. I imagine that pushes a lot of land in Iowa further right.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I figured. The cost of diesel and gas probably aren't helping either. I imagine that pushes a lot of land in Iowa further right.
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This is the case anywhere basically...

Gas prices are a cheap and VERY noticeable talking point that reaches EVERYONE, not just the FOX crowd. If the price is high, there will be a noticeable shift to the right for votes across the board. Not just hardcore, lifelong DERPS.
 
RaceBoarder said:
This is the case anywhere basically...

Gas prices are a cheap and VERY noticeable talking point that reaches EVERYONE, not just the FOX crowd. If the price is high, there will be a noticeable shift to the right for votes across the board. Not just hardcore, lifelong DERPS.
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Yes, but I would think it's especially true in Iowa vs. NYC.


Edit:
Actually, it's going to be true in at least three scenarios I can immediately think of. 1) Sparely populated. 2) economy driven by heavy machinery 3) generally conservative already


And #3 might be more of a critical mass thing than just a general shift, which you're right, is also true. But I would think that in more conservative areas, gas is just going to be one of those things that pushes someone over the edge as opposed to maybe a few % more likely to vote R than D.
 
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I think that this will tip the scales right in Urban areas too (think purple areas). If you have a 30-60 minute commute everyday for work, you saw your fuel stops go from $30/week to $70+/week. That adds up. And like I mentioned, is noticeable to everyone....
 
Yeah, rural areas aren't impacted electorally because they already skewed heavily red.

It's the suburbs and exurbs full of upper middle class whites that gas prices and inflation will matter the most with.

Put into anecdotal context, I'm not shocked when the blue collar factory guys on my beer league team support Trump and bash the Dems at this point. But when the engineers and consultants and the like living in their Mcmansions join in, it's going to be a bad November.
 
RaceBoarder said:
I think that this will tip the scales right in Urban areas too (think purple areas). If you have a 30-60 minute commute everyday for work, you saw your fuel stops go from $30/week to $70+/week. That adds up. And like I mentioned, is noticeable to everyone....
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I play cards with a group of guys each week, and last week I commented about how it cost $75 to fill the tank of my wife's Chevy Impala, sort of in the range of what used to belong exclusively to pick up trucks and large SUV's. One of the other guys mentioned that he spent $35 to put gas in his Chevy Volt, which felt silly, since it's a hybrid. Finally, our buddy who is a commercial plumbing contractor said, "My truck has a 50 gallon tank." That ended the conversation.
 
Since I don't have to deal with this very often, does the mileage deduction get indexed to the cost of gas at all?

Edit: Nm, it's set on Jan 1. 58.5
 
SJHovey said:
I play cards with a group of guys each week, and last week I commented about how it cost $75 to fill the tank of my wife's Chevy Impala, sort of in the range of what used to belong exclusively to pick up trucks and large SUV's. One of the other guys mentioned that he spent $35 to put gas in his Chevy Volt, which felt silly, since it's a hybrid. Finally, our buddy who is a commercial plumbing contractor said, "My truck has a 50 gallon tank." That ended the conversation.
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He also bills at $50/ hour.
 
SJHovey said:
I play cards with a group of guys each week, and last week I commented about how it cost $75 to fill the tank of my wife's Chevy Impala, sort of in the range of what used to belong exclusively to pick up trucks and large SUV's. One of the other guys mentioned that he spent $35 to put gas in his Chevy Volt, which felt silly, since it's a hybrid. Finally, our buddy who is a commercial plumbing contractor said, "My truck has a 50 gallon tank." That ended the conversation.
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A Ford Transit Van is listed at 24 MPG City and comes with the bonus of people not thinking you have a tiny p**is.
 
Jimjamesak said:
A Ford Transit Van is listed at 24 MPG City and comes with the bonus of people not thinking you have a tiny p**is.
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He and his company build public wastewater treatment plants here in Minnesota and in Iowa. Most of the time when I've seen him working he is pulling a large gooseneck trailer loaded down with pumps and whatnot to his work sites. But I'll pass along the tip.
 
SJHovey said:
He and his company build public wastewater treatment plants here in Minnesota and in Iowa. Most of the time when I've seen him working he is pulling a large gooseneck trailer loaded down with pumps and whatnot to his work sites. But I'll pass along the tip.
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Then he should be using an efficient commercial truck for hauling instead of using a trailer and an inefficient pickup truck.

Either way, he’s an idiot.
 
SJHovey said:
He and his company build public wastewater treatment plants here in Minnesota and in Iowa. Most of the time when I've seen him working he is pulling a large gooseneck trailer loaded down with pumps and whatnot to his work sites. But I'll pass along the tip.
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So, bills more than $50/hour.

I weep for him.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Then he should be using an efficient commercial truck for hauling instead of using a trailer and an inefficient pickup truck.

Either way, he’s an idiot.
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He is an idiot yet you have no idea what the guy hauls and how it gets on and off the trailer? TF F
 
walrus said:
He is an idiot yet you have no idea what the guy hauls and how it gets on and off the trailer? TF F
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If the guy is a plumber he’s an idiot for using a pickup as his work vehicle when something like a Transit Van is available and more efficient.

If he’s using a pickup and trailer to haul around large pumps instead of a more efficient commercial truck he’s a real fucking idiot.

I work in shipping, often with people loading thousands of pounds on and off trucks, and none them use a pickup with a trailer for a reason.
 
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