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2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I expected that result for my Wolverines, but I still had the excitement and the nerves reading this recap as I would have had watching the game.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

West Regional – Loveland

#2 – Denver v. #3 – Maine
On a Friday night in Loveland, Colorado, the Denver Pioneers and the Maine Black Bears battled in the evening matchup of the West Regional Semifinals. In front of its home state crowd, Denver came flying out in the first period, throwing 14 shots on goal compared to Maine’s 6, but Jeremy Swayman stood strong between the pipes for the Black Bears. The closest DU came to cracking into the scoring column came midway through the first period when Bobby Brink burst past JD Greenway along the far boards and skated to the bottom of the far circle, launching a wrister that beat Swayman, but hit the near post and rang out. Magnus Chrona stopped each of Maine’s attempts as well in the first, and after twenty minutes of play, Denver and Maine were tied 0-0. Early in the second Denver’s Ian Mitchell was called for cross checking, and the Black Bears capitalized with the man advantage, thanks to Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup awareness. Adam Dawe wristed a shot on net from the far circle that Chrona got a piece of, but the puck trickled to the side of the crease where Schmidt-Svejstrup was the first to find the loose puck and jammed it home to give Maine a 1-0 advantage. Denver quickly responded. On the following shift, Liam Finlay dumped the puck into the Black Bear zone, and Emilio Pettersen won the race to the puck, circled behind the Maine net, and then found Cole Guttman in the slot, who one-timed a laser past Swayman to knot the score at 1-1. The two sides went back and forth throughout the second, and it appeared that the game would be tied going into third. However, with just under a minute to play Tyler Ward won a puck battle in the near corner, threw a wrister towards the net, which deflected off a Maine blueliner to the stick of Slava Demin at the point. Demin ripped a slap shot that fooled Swayman and found the back of the net to put the Pioneers up 2-1 heading into the third period. Early in the third it was all Denver, pushing for a two-goal advantage, but Swayman held strong, stopping the seven shots on goal he faced in the opening six minutes. The Black Bears were then granted a golden opportunity. Just before the midway point, Jake Durflinger was called for a five minute major for checking from behind. Maine piled eight shots on net on the extended powerplay, but it would be the eighth and final shot during that time period that would prove crucial, as Tim Doherty found Mitchell Fossier on the backdoor, and Fossier tapped the puck into a gaping net to tie the game at two. It looked like the West Regional crowd was going to get treated to extra hockey in both of their semifinals, but with just over two minutes to play, Denver’s Ian Mitchell spoiled the party. Mitchell pinched in along the near boards, skated to the top of the slot, and ripped a wrister through traffic unscathed, and past the screened Swayman. The goal gave DU a 3-2 advantage, and Maine pushed for the equalizer late in the period, but were unable to push another puck past Chrona, and when the clock reached all zeroes, it was the Pioneers of Denver knocking out the Maine Black Bears 3-2 to advance to the West Regional final against Ohio State.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Congrats to Cornell on retaining the Belt.
Code: 
                   <u>Current Holder</u>         <u>Next Defense</u>[b]
The Belt           Cornell                Boston College 03/28/2020[/b]
The Belt Alt 3x3   Penn State             Massachusetts Lowell 03/28/2020
The Belt Alt SO    Massachusetts Lowell   Penn State 03/28/2020
AHC Belt           Sacred Heart           next season
B1G Belt           Penn State             04/12/2020 at earliest
ECAC Belt          Cornell                04/12/2020 at earliest
HEA Belt           Massachusetts Lowell   04/10/2020 at earliest
NCHC Belt          North Dakota           04/10/2020 at earliest
WCHA Belt          Bemidji State          next season
Ivy Belt           Cornell                next season
New England Belt   Massachusetts Lowell   04/10/2020 at earliest
Connecticut Belt   Sacred Heart           next season
Massachusetts Belt Boston College         04/10/2020 at earliest
Michigan Belt      Michigan Tech          next season
Minnesota Belt     Minnesota              next season
New York Belt      Cornell                04/12/2020 at earliest
D II Play up Belt  Bemidji State          next season
D II P u Alt SO    American International next season
D III Play up Belt Rensselaer             next season
Play up Belt       Rensselaer             next season

Corrections are always appreciated.
 
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Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Ralph Baer said:
Congrats to Cornell on retaining the Belt.
Code: 
                   <u>Current Holder</u>         <u>Next Defense</u>[b]
The Belt           Cornell                Boston College 03/28/2020[/b]
The Belt Alt 3x3   Penn State             Minnesota State 03/28/2020
The Belt Alt SO    Massachusetts Lowell   Western Michigan 03/28/2020
AHC Belt           Sacred Heart           next season
B1G Belt           Penn State             04/12/2020 at earliest
ECAC Belt          Cornell                04/12/2020 at earliest
HEA Belt           Massachusetts Lowell   04/10/2020 at earliest
NCHC Belt          North Dakota           04/10/2020 at earliest
WCHA Belt          Bemidji State          next season
Ivy Belt           Cornell                next season
New England Belt   Massachusetts Lowell   04/10/2020 at earliest
Connecticut Belt   Sacred Heart           next season
Massachusetts Belt Boston College         04/10/2020 at earliest
Michigan Belt      Michigan Tech          next season
Minnesota Belt     Minnesota              next season
New York Belt      Cornell                04/12/2020 at earliest
D II Play up Belt  Bemidji State          next season
D II P u Alt SO    American International next season
D III Play up Belt Rensselaer             next season
Play up Belt       Rensselaer             next season

Corrections are always appreciated.
Click to expand...

Penn State is playing Mass Lowell and Minnesota State is playing Western Michigan today. Please correct.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

SonofSouthie said:
What time are today's games he wondered.
Click to expand...

Today's Simulated Games

All Times Eastern

Midwest Regional Semifinal - Allentown

#1 Minnesota State v. #4 Western Michigan: Puck Drop 12:05 p.m.

East Regional Semifinal - Albany

#1 North Dakota v. #4 Sacred Heart: Puck Drop 1:05 p.m.

Midwest Regional Semifinal - Allentown

#2 Penn State v. #3 Massachusetts Lowell: Puck Drop ~3:35 p.m.

East Regional Semifinal - Albany

#2 Clarkson v. #3 Massachusetts: Puck Drop ~4:35 p.m.

Northeast Regional Final - Worcester

#1 Cornell v. #2 Boston College: Puck Drop 6:05 p.m.

West Regional Final - Loveland

#2 Denver v. #4 Ohio State: Puck Drop 8:05 p.m.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Today's Simulated Games

All Times Eastern

Midwest Regional Semifinal - Allentown

#1 Minnesota State v. #4 Western Michigan: Puck Drop 12:05 p.m.

East Regional Semifinal - Albany

#1 North Dakota v. #4 Sacred Heart: Puck Drop 1:05 p.m.

Midwest Regional Semifinal - Allentown

#2 Penn State v. #3 Massachusetts Lowell: Puck Drop ~3:35 p.m.

East Regional Semifinal - Albany

#2 Clarkson v. #3 Massachusetts: Puck Drop ~4:35 p.m.

Northeast Regional Final - Worcester

#1 Cornell v. #2 Boston College: Puck Drop 6:05 p.m.

West Regional Final - Loveland

#2 Denver v. #4 Ohio State: Puck Drop 8:05 p.m.
Click to expand...

With all due respect to you for spending the time doing these simulations, I have to go with the CHN model....... :)

CHN Tournament Simulation
Albany, First Round: Cornell 4, Michigan 1
Worcester, First Round: North Dakota 4, AIC 2
Worcester, First Round: Massachusetts 4, Clarkson 2
Loveland, First Round: Arizona State 5, UMD 3
Loveland, First Round: Denver 4, Bemidji State 1

Looking forward to the ASU - Denver game !

Also, for whatever it's worth, the NCAA is discussing officially recognizing the teams that would've qualified for the NCAA. If so, I suppose that would be based on the last pairwise ratings calculated.
 
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Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Sol Diablo said:
With all due respect to you for spending the time doing these simulations, I have to go with the CHN model....... :)

CHN Tournament Simulation
Albany, First Round: Cornell 4, Michigan 1
Worcester, First Round: North Dakota 4, AIC 2
Worcester, First Round: Massachusetts 4, Clarkson 2
Loveland, First Round: Arizona State 5, UMD 3
Loveland, First Round: Denver 4, Bemidji State 1

Looking forward to the ASU - Denver game !
Click to expand...

I can certainly understand why you feel that way. :)

That being said, CHN did not simulate the last few weeks of the season (including the conference tournaments). That makes no sense to me, but this is all for fun and to help us get through what would otherwise be the best few weeks of the college hockey season without the games actually being played. So, enjoy! :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Sol Diablo said:
Also, for whatever it's worth, the NCAA is discussing officially recognizing the teams that would've qualified for the NCAA. If so, I suppose that would be based on the last pairwise ratings calculated.
Click to expand...

I know they decided not to do that for the basketball tournaments, so I would be a bit surprised if they did it for college hockey. Do you have a link to a source discussing this?
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Kepler is also doing a simulation at eLynah.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Midwest Regional – Allentown

#1 – Minnesota State v. #4 – Western Michigan
The Minnesota State Mavericks squared off against the Western Michigan Broncos in the opening tilt of the Midwest Regional Semifinals today in Allentown. The Mavericks’ Marc Michaelis got the top seed on the board early, thanks to a beautiful wrister from the slot that beat WMU’s Brandon Bussi five-hole to give Mankato a 1-0 lead. Minnesota State built on their advantage midway through the opening frame, after Mattias Samuelsson was called for interference. With the man advantage, the Mavericks spun the puck around the offensive zone, eventually finding Charlie Gerard at the bottom of the near circle, who roofed a wrister over Bussi’s outstretched blocker. At the other end of the ice, MSU goaltender Dryden McKay held the Broncos off the scoreboard in the first twenty, and through one period, Minnesota State had a 2-0 advantage. Western Michigan would finally crack McKay’s spell early in the second when Ronnie Attard found Austin Reuschhoff in the neutral zone. Reuschhoff split the defenders and ripped a wrister from the slot that beat McKay glove-side to pull the Broncos within a goal. Minnesota State would respond quickly however, as just moments later Parker Tuomie gathered a puck along the near boards, skated to the near circle, and wristed a shot that beat Bussi stick-side clean, putting the Mavericks back up by two. Midway through the second, the Broncos reared back into the game, after Nathan Smith was called for cross-checking. On the powerplay, McKay stopped Cam Lee’s slapper from the top of the far circle, but the rebound went straight to Paul Washe, who flicked a backhand into the back of the net and pulled WMU back within a goal. After forty minutes of action, that is where the score remained, Minnesota State holding a precarious 3-2 lead. The Broncos would finally pull even early in the third when Rhett Kingston’s wrist shot from the top of the slit deflected off a Mankato defenseman, and fooled McKay, who watched the puck drift past his glove and into the back of the net. Tied 3-3, both sides pushed for the lead. Just aver the midway point of the period, Michaelis put his team on his back, poking a loose puck near the benches past the Broncos’ blueliner, and skated in on a partial breakaway. Michaelis’ moved to the slot and flipped a wrister on Bussi, who pushed it aside, but the rebound went right back to Michaelis’ stick at the top of the crease, and he jammed the rebound under Bussi’s pads to put Minnesota State back on top 4-3. As the clock wound down, Western Michigan pushed for the equalize. Unfortunately for the WMU faithful, it would be Reggie Lutz padding Minnesota State’s lead with just over two minutes to play, catching the Broncos trying to pinch in and going in all alone on a breakaway and putting a wrister top shelf to give Minnesota State a 5-3 advantage. That would be all the Mavericks would need, and when the final horn sounded, Minnesota State captured the program’s first ever NCAA Tournament victory, 5-3 over Western Michigan, and advanced to the Midwest Regional Final tomorrow afternoon.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

With zero NCAA tournament wins in twelve appearances between them, someone had to get their first NCAA tournament win in that matchup. :D
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
I know they decided not to do that for the basketball tournaments, so I would be a bit surprised if they did it for college hockey. Do you have a link to a source discussing this?
Click to expand...

See bottom of the narrative on this page. But I just now noticed this is from an older webpage, March 13th, which is around the time NCAA decided not to do it for basketball.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/14_Bracket-ABCs--Final-March.php
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
I can certainly understand why you feel that way. :)

That being said, CHN did not simulate the last few weeks of the season (including the conference tournaments). That makes no sense to me, but this is all for fun and to help us get through what would otherwise be the best few weeks of the college hockey season without the games actually being played. So, enjoy! :)
Click to expand...

Its all good. I've enjoyed your simulation.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

East Regional – Albany

#1 – North Dakota v. #4 – Sacred Heart
The North Dakota Fighting Hawks met up with the Sacred Heart Pioneers in the afternoon session of the East Regional Semifinals here in Albany this afternoon. The Fighting Hawks soared early, as Westin Michaud broke the ice with a wrister from the near circle that beat Pioneer goalie Josh Benson glove side to give North Dakota a 1-0 lead just under two minutes into the first period. UND added another midway through the opening frame when Jasper Weatherby won a puck battle along the near boards, skated behind the net, and then found Grant Mismash in the slot, who one-timed the puck just over Benson’s blocker to put North Dakota up 2-0. Adam Scheel kept Sacred Heart off the scoresheet in the first period, stopping all seven Pioneer shots, and after one period of play, North Dakota held a two-goal advantage. Sacred Heart earned a great opportunity to pull within a goal early in the second after Shane Pinto was called for roughing. Scheel would come up big on the penalty kill however, thwarting all three SHU shots on goal to keep the Pioneers scoreless. North Dakota then added to its lead midway through the game when Jacob Bernard-Docker held the puck in along the far boards, dished the puck down in the corner to Jordan Kawaguchi, who then found Collin Adams in the slot. Adams wasted little time flinging a wrister on net that eluded Benson’s glove and gave UND a 3-0 lead. North Dakota kept the Pioneers off the scoreboard the rest of the period, and the Pioneers faced a daunting three-goal deficit entering the third period. Shane Pinto made the Pioneers task even more difficult when he found the back of the net on a wrister from just below the far circle to give North Dakota a 4-0 lead. North Dakota added to its advantage just after halfway through the final frame, when Matt Kiersted unleashed a howitzer from the point on the powerplay that beat Benson and flew into the back of the net to put the Fighting Hawks up by five. With just under four minutes to go, Sacred Heart finally solved Scheel, as Mike Lee’s shot from the top of the far circle missed the net on the far side, but Jason Cotton pounced on the puck as it came bouncing off the boards, and beat Scheel, who couldn’t get to the far post in time. The goal put SHU on the scoreboard, but it would be as close as they would get. When the final horn sounded, North Dakota advanced to the East Regional final with a 5-1 victory.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
East Regional – Albany

#1 – North Dakota v. #4 – Sacred Heart
The North Dakota Fighting Hawks met up with the Sacred Heart Pioneers in the afternoon session of the East Regional Semifinals here in Albany this afternoon. The Fighting Hawks soared early, as Westin Michaud broke the ice with a wrister from the near circle that beat Pioneer goalie Josh Benson glove side to give North Dakota a 1-0 lead just under two minutes into the first period. UND added another midway through the opening frame when Jasper Weatherby won a puck battle along the near boards, skated behind the net, and then found Grant Mismash in the slot, who one-timed the puck just over Benson’s blocker to put North Dakota up 2-0. Adam Scheel kept Sacred Heart off the scoresheet in the first period, stopping all seven Pioneer shots, and after one period of play, North Dakota held a two-goal advantage. Sacred Heart earned a great opportunity to pull within a goal early in the second after Shane Pinto was called for roughing. Scheel would come up big on the penalty kill however, thwarting all three SHU shots on goal to keep the Pioneers scoreless. North Dakota then added to its lead midway through the game when Jacob Bernard-Docker held the puck in along the far boards, dished the puck down in the corner to Jordan Kawaguchi, who then found Collin Adams in the slot. Adams wasted little time flinging a wrister on net that eluded Benson’s glove and gave UND a 3-0 lead. North Dakota kept the Pioneers off the scoreboard the rest of the period, and the Pioneers faced a daunting three-goal deficit entering the third period. Shane Pinto made the Pioneers task even more difficult when he found the back of the net on a wrister from just below the far circle to give North Dakota a 4-0 lead. North Dakota added to its advantage just after halfway through the final frame, when Matt Kiersted unleashed a howitzer from the point on the powerplay that beat Benson and flew into the back of the net to put the Fighting Hawks up by five. With just under four minutes to go, Sacred Heart finally solved Scheel, as Mike Lee’s shot from the top of the far circle missed the net on the far side, but Jason Cotton pounced on the puck as it came bouncing off the boards, and beat Scheel, who couldn’t get to the far post in time. The goal put SHU on the scoreboard, but it would be as close as they would get. When the final horn sounded, North Dakota advanced to the East Regional final with a 5-1 victory.
Click to expand...

Wonder why Scheel got the start instead of Thome?
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Siouxfaninseattle said:
Wonder why Scheel got the start instead of Thome?
Click to expand...

We'll have to ask Coach Berry why he went that route. :p:D:D

In all seriousness, the simulator looks at the number of games played, and Scheel played in about 2/3 of the games, so he will probably get the nod about 2/3 of the time in the simulations. That being said, it would have been very interesting to see who Berry would have went with in the NCAA Tournament. My guess is it likely would have been whoever had the hot hand following the conference tournaments. Thome certainly seemed to be playing better towards the end of the season though.
 
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