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2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Midwest Regional Final – Allentown

#1 –Minnesota State v. #2 – Penn State
With a spot in the Frozen Four in Detroit on the line, the Minnesota State Mavericks took on the Penn State Nittany Lions in front of a PSU-favorable crowd in Allentown this afternoon. Hobey Baker Finalist Dryden McKay took his spot in net for Minnesota State, while Peyton Jones manned the pipes for the Nittany Lions. The Mavericks tested Jones early and often in the first period, and midway through the opening stanza, MSU took advantage of Nikita Pavlychev’s boarding minor. With the man advantage, Minnesota State’s Nathan Smith held the puck along the far boards, and dished a cross ice pass to Ian Scheid at the top of the near circle. Scheid blasted a howitzer past Jones’ blocker, giving the Mavericks a 1-0 lead. McKay held firm in net for MSU in the first twenty minutes, and after one period of play, Minnesota State held a 1-0 advantage. The Mavericks added to their advantage early in the middle frame when Reggie Lutz grabbed a rebound at the top of the crease and put just enough lift on a wrister to clear Jones’ kick-save attempt to put MSU up 2-0. The Nittany Lions roared back, and midway through the period Cole Hults found Brandon Biro streaking through the neutral zone. Biro split the Maverick defenders, and sent a backhand that found just enough space on McKay five-hole to find the back of the net to pull PSU within a goal at 2-1. The Allentown crowd erupted with approval, and the Nittany Lions used the momentum to pour pressure on the Mavericks. The pressure paid off with just over four minutes to play in the second, when Pavlychev made up for his prior penalty by unleashing a rocket from the near boards that found its way through traffic and flew past a screened McKay to knot the score at 2-2. PSU continued their pressure the rest of the second period, but were unable to push the go-ahead goal before the period ended, and after forty minutes of play, MSU and PSU remained all square at 2-2. The Nittany Lions continued their offensive assault early in the third period, and just over three minutes into the final frame, PSU’s Nate Sucese lifted a wrister from the near circle that seemingly had eyes to the top shelf, just behind McKay’s outstretched blocker, and Penn State grabbed its first lead of the matchup. The Mavericks pushed valiantly for the equalizer, and earned a powerplay just past the midway point in the third after Tyler Gratton was called for interference in the neural zone. While Minnesota State launched four shots on goal, they were unable to solve Jones with the man advantage, and as the clocked ticked down, the Mavericks remained looking for the tying goal. Finally, with just over two minutes to play, Jack McNeely pinched in along the far boards and sent a wrister on net. The puck was blocked by a Penn State defender, but the puck went right to Nicholas Rivera’s stick in the slot, and Rivera wasted little time ripping a wrister that beat Jones stick-side, and knotted the score at 3-3. Both sides pushed for the certain game winner in the final minutes of regulation, but when the scoreboard showed all zeroes, overtime would be necessary to decide who would get to continue to play for the National Championship. Overtime would not last long however. On the first shift of extra time, Parker Tuomie grabbed a loose puck in the far corner, skated behind the PSU net and to the bottom of the near circle, and launched a wrister on Jones, who was able to make a kick-save, but the rebound went to Marc Michaelis’ stick, and the Senior Hobey Baker Finalist knew exactly what to do, lifting the puck into the gaping net to send the Minnesota State Mavericks to the Frozen Four, thanks to a 4-3 overtime victory over Penn State.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

East Regional Final – Albany

#1 –North Dakota v. #3 – Massachusetts
The final spot in the Frozen Four was on the line, as the North Dakota Fighting Hawks and the Massachusetts Minutemen squared off in the East Regional Final in Albany, looking to join Boston College, Ohio State, and Minnesota State for a shot at the NCAA National Championship. North Dakota went with Adam Scheel in net, while Massachusetts sent Matt Murray to man the Minutemen’ pipes. The offensive firepower was on full display in the first period, as North Dakota sent 12 shots on goal, while Massachusetts launched 10 pucks on net. However, it would be Scheel and Murray who would stand tall, stopping all 22 shots, with both goaltenders making some tremendous saves. Midway through the first period, John Leonard took advantage of a poor line change from the Fighting Hawks, took a pass from Colin Felix in the neutral zone and skated in all alone. Leonard made a brilliant forehand to backhand move that was matched only with Scheel’s beautiful glove save. Towards the end of the first period, Jordan Kawaguchi had the puck behind the UMASS net, and found Collin Adams at the bottom of the far circle, who unleashed a one-timer that appeared destined for the top shelf, but Murray’s blocker got there just in time to tip the puck over the net. After twenty minutes of action, the game was tied at 0-0. That would change early in the second period when Cole Smith tipped the puck past a pinching Minutemen defender out into the neutral zone, and then won the race to the puck. Skating in on a partial breakaway, Smith smarty slowed up, waited for Westin Michaud to join him, dished the puck to Michuad in the slot who flipped a wrister over Murray’s glove to put North Dakota up 1-0. The Fighting Hawks would add to their advantage midway through the second on the powerplay, when Jacob Bernard-Docker faked a slapshot, toe dragged the charging forward, and then unleashed a wrister through traffic past a screened Murray that found the back of the net to put UND up 2-0. The Minutemen pushed back hard, and with just over five minutes to play in the middle frame, Leonard finally got his revenge on Scheel. This time, Mtichell Chaffee won a puck battle behind the North Dakota net, skated out to the side of the net and found Leonard streaking through the slot. Chaffee sent a perfect pass to Leonard, who unleashed a laser that blew past Scheel’s blocker and just about went through the net, to pull UMASS back within a goal. It looked like North Dakota would hold a one-goal lead going into the final frame, but with just under thirty seconds to play in the period, Matt Kiersted pinched in along the far boards to keep the puck in the offensive zone, and then found Hobey Baker Finalist Kawaguchi at the top of the near circle, who one-timed the puck on net which glanced off Murray’s glove, and into the back of the net to give North Dakota a 3-1 lead after forty minutes of play. Both sides pushed for the next goal in the third period, but the goaltenders held their own. Until midway through the period anyway, when Massachusetts’ Oliver Chau skated the puck into the UND zone, and to the top of the slot and launched a snap shot that caught Scheel off guard, rang off the near post and into the back of the net to pull the Minutemen within a goal. The goal gave UMASS a boost of momentum, and they charged for the equalizer. As the clock wore down, the Minutemen launched seven more shots on net, but were unable to solve Scheel, who after giving up a softie, looked locked in, stopping each of UMASS’ attempts. When the horn sounded and the clock on the scoreboard showed 00:00, it was North Dakota earning a 3-2 win over Massachusetts, and the final spot in the Frozen Four.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Sunday update
Code:
                   <u>Current Holder</u>         <u>Next Defense</u>[b]
The Belt           Boston College         Minnesota State 04/09/2020[/b]
The Belt Alt 3x3   Minnesota State        Boston College 04/09/2020
AHC Belt           Sacred Heart           next season
B1G Belt           Penn State             next season
ECAC Belt          Cornell                next season
HEA Belt           Massachusetts Lowell   next season
NCHC Belt          North Dakota           next season
WCHA Belt          Bemidji State          next season
Ivy Belt           Cornell                next season
New England Belt   Massachusetts Lowell   next season
Connecticut Belt   Sacred Heart           next season
Massachusetts Belt Boston College         next season
Michigan Belt      Michigan Tech          next season
Minnesota Belt     Minnesota              next season
D II Play up Belt  Bemidji State          next season
D II P u Alt SO    American International next season
D III Play up Belt Rensselaer             next season
Play up Belt       Rensselaer             next season

Corrections are always appreciated.
 
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Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

This could be kind of fun, with this FS23 USCHO simulation, the CHN simulation, the one on the Cornell message board, and perhaps others, it could turn out like the old days of college football where no champion was determined on the playing field but perhaps multiple championships determined off of it. :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

This could be kind of fun, with this FS23 USCHO simulation, the CHN simulation, the one on the Cornell message board, and perhaps others, it could turn out like the old days of college football where no champion was determined on the playing field but perhaps multiple championships determined off of it. :)

Where is or what is the Cornell message board named? I must have overlooked it.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

This could be kind of fun, with this FS23 USCHO simulation, the CHN simulation, the one on the Cornell message board, and perhaps others, it could turn out like the old days of college football where no champion was determined on the playing field but perhaps multiple championships determined off of it. :)

Who made the Frozen Four in the Cornell simulation? It was interesting that the FS23/USCHO simulation and CHN simulation were almost identical. 3 of the 4 Regional Finals were identical (albeit in different regionals, but same matchups: North Dakota v. Massachusetts; Cornell v. Boston College; and Minnesota State v. Penn State), producing the same winner in each. The other regional final here was Denver v. Ohio State (CHN had Denver v. Arizona State). OSU got the win in the simulation here, while Denver got the nod in CHN's simulation.

FS23/USCHO Frozen Four:
#1 Minnesota State v. #2 Boston College
#1 North Dakota v. #4 Ohio State

CHN Frozen Four:
#1 Minnesota State v. #2 Boston College
#1 North Dakota v. #2 Denver
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Who made the Frozen Four in the Cornell simulation?
it is on the eLynah forum. The link is https://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,228237, but USCHO is adding the s onto http. If you copy the link and remove the s it works.. Their Frozen Four is:

#5 Minnesota-Duluth vs #7 Denver
#1 North Dakota vs #6 Penn State

Sean
 
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Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Here's hoping we don't have to wait 2 weeks while the 'simulated' Final Four plays out this weekend.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Here's hoping we don't have to wait 2 weeks while the 'simulated' Final Four plays out this weekend.

I'm not sure how the other places are doing it, but I am simulating the games as they would have occurred. To that end, the next simulations (at least here) will be Thursday, April 9, 2020, followed by the National Title game on Saturday, April 11, 2020. FWIW, the Minnesota State v. Boston College simulation will be the afternoon simulation on the 9th, so at least you won't have to wait until that evening for your result. :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Well, with FS 23 running one of these simulations, there’s a good chance that ND is going to win one of these... :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I'm not sure how the other places are doing it, but I am simulating the games as they would have occurred. To that end, the next simulations (at least here) will be Thursday, April 9, 2020, followed by the National Title game on Saturday, April 11, 2020. FWIW, the Minnesota State v. Boston College simulation will be the afternoon simulation on the 9th, so at least you won't have to wait until that evening for your result. :)

Good. We need 10 more days of hype for the FF. :D
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Well, with FS 23 running one of these simulations, there’s a good chance that ND is going to win one of these... :)

I think this was made in jest, but, FWIW, I have no input on who prevails in the simulations. I take the information provided by the CHW simulator, and turn it into a narrative. The results stay the same.

I would also point out that North Dakota was the only team to make it to the virtual Frozen Four in each of the three simulations. Clearly they were the best team and should win all three simulations. :p:D:D
 
I would also point out that North Dakota was the only team to make it to the virtual Frozen Four in each of the three simulations. Clearly they were the best team and should win all three simulations. :p:D:D
It’s also interesting that Cornell made the FF in none of the simulations.

Sean
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

As to simulations, I also received this and at least one earlier tweet.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ECAC Hockey Tournament Simulated<br>Semifinal<br><br>RPI 3<br>Clarkson 1<br><br>RPI advances to ECAC Hockey Tournament Simulated Championship Game<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NCAAHockeySim?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NCAAHockeySim</a></p>— SimulatinSports (@SimulatinSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/SimulatinSports/status/1244660162176012288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Clearly, they are not up to the NCAA tourney yet, and there are a lot of baseball and basketball simulations to wade through.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

It’s also interesting that Cornell made the FF in none of the simulations.

Sean

At least per my simulation, they got placed in a very difficult bracket. Cornell (#3), Boston College (#6), Bemidji State (#9), and Michigan (#12), were all highly ranked via KRACH. Meanwhile, North Dakota got placed in a relatively easy bracket (North Dakota (#1), Clarkson (#13), Massachusetts (#14), and Sacred Heart (#34)). The West Regional (Duluth (#4), Denver (#5), Ohio State (#8), and Maine (#24)) was also a pretty difficult bracket, and the Northeast Regional (Minnesota State (#2), Penn State (#7), Western Michigan (#10), and Massachusetts Lowell (#17)) was fairly average.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I think this was made in jest, but, FWIW, I have no input on who prevails in the simulations. I take the information provided by the CHW simulator, and turn it into a narrative. The results stay the same.

I would also point out that North Dakota was the only team to make it to the virtual Frozen Four in each of the three simulations. Clearly they were the best team and should win all three simulations. :p:D:D

I have an upset DU friend that would like to have a few words with you. :D
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

You can tell them that I graduated from DU's Sturm College of Law, so clearly I am very, very upset too. :p:D:D

I'll see your bet and raise you. I'm a lifelong BC fan and I graduated from BU Law. And I'm not upset with the simulation, at least not yet :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I'll see your bet and raise you. I'm a lifelong BC fan and I graduated from BU Law. And I'm not upset with the simulation, at least not yet :)

:p:D:D

FWIW, I got my undergraduate degree from North Dakota. Almost went to Michigan for my Ph.D., and then went to DU for law school. That would have been some crazy national championship trifecta. :)
 
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