2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

[ericredaxe]

most of these jobs pay as well as they do due to unionization and their power has eroded considerably over the years. And the earning potential still isn't as high as the upper end of what you can earn via a bachelor's (where you can get a desk job and search the internet half the day)

Maybe at the very extreme high end the potential is not as high, But most small business Owner trades people I know are doing very well and are not union. So I’m not sure your theory is totally accurate.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Are you new here? EVERY thread pretty much turns into a dik measuring contest, sometimes even before mookie gets involved!

Once mookie gets involved it's no longer a dik-measuring contest.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

I'll get us back on topic. Joe Biden - about to announce soon. While the guy isn't my first choice (Warren is) I think pundidiotry and many a Dem is way underestimating his chances. To me, the path to the nomination isn't winning over well educated urban liberals, because there's a plethora of candidates appealing to that bloc. It runs through the non-white Dems who dominate the primaries in delegate rich states from Virginia to Texas. If anybody consolidates their vote, as the last two Dem nominees did, they win.

So, who has a chance to do that? Harris of course being a non-white person herself. O'Rourke who's white as a ghost but has already won in a heavily Hispanic district and is the only candidate from the South. And then there's Biden. He has the chance to parlay his time as Obama's VP into a strong 1st place finish in these states and a 2nd place to a Sanders lets say in the rust belt. Remember, Dem contests aren't winner take all. They're allocated by Congressional districts. That matters especially for the people who are already well known and who don't have to set up shop in every single precinct to earn precious delegates. Were I advising Bernie Sanders, I'd have him spend the bulk of his time in the Carolinas, Florida, etc. For all of the goodwill he has with liberals, he can't afford to get creamed down South like he did last time. That's where the contest gets decided.

There are so many running, without any runaway favorite, that this may very well be not decided for a long time. I don't think any one constituency is a magic bullet. Of roughly equal importance: democratic socialists, soccer Moms, environmentalists, Latinos, blacks, women, rust belt whites with "economic anxiety," the utes. Some of those groups are far more numerous (women) but when reduced to single-issue drivers they're about the same.

Do well with a plurality of those groups and you contend. Handsome Joe is probably the only candidate with a chance to establish a lead simply on auto-pilot (name recognition, Obama-adjacency, inoffensive charm, default media legitimacy). We'll see. Who'd have thought Mayor Pete would be more than just a 1% afterthought?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Astoundingly someone wrote a good article about Mayor Pete, which was his buzz is from the same circles that media types run in (well educated whites). What kind of appeal does he have outside of that? Time will tell.

While you are of course correct on the different parts of the coalition, I'd argue the South is the most delegate rich territory with no hometown candidate (with the possible and significant exception of O'Rourke). And they are heavily represented on Super Tuesday. That makes the appeal of this one particular cohort (non-white Southerners) of outsized importance IMHO.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Astoundingly someone wrote a good article about Mayor Pete, which was his buzz is from the same circles that media types run in (well educated whites). What kind of appeal does he have outside of that? Time will tell.

Well-educated whites have a sh-t load of money. Also, I missed where "well-educated" became a bad thing. Yes, to Republicans, for obvious reasons, but to us?

Who do we have right now who is a beacon for the ill-educated? I don't see anybody in our field appealing to the dregs the way Dump does. Granted, that's a market inefficiency, so somebody (Moulton?) will make a run at them, but ideally it will be a Panderer of Color.

Handsome Joe might have the magic touch with our derps.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Maybe at the very extreme high end the potential is not as high, But most small business Owner trades people I know are doing very well and are not union. So I’m not sure your theory is totally accurate.

Cool anecdotes

 

[mookie1995]

Are you new here? EVERY thread pretty much turns into a dik measuring contest, sometimes even before mookie gets involved!

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Also, I missed where "well-educated" became a bad thing. Yes, to Republicans, for obvious reasons, but to us?

I don't know why you're asking this question as its not anything that I touched upon in my post.

The non-white voters of the south aren't necessarily uneducated or conservative. However they might have a different perspective on the candidates than upper income white urban/suburban voters. If someone can speak to them as a bloc, they have the potential to reap a substantial amount of delegates at a critical time (Super Tuesday) that tends to knock out candidates.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

I don't know why you're asking this question as its not anything that I touched upon in my post.

The non-white voters of the south aren't necessarily uneducated or conservative. However they might have a different perspective on the candidates than upper income white urban/suburban voters. If someone can speak to them as a bloc, they have the potential to reap a substantial amount of delegates at a critical time (Super Tuesday) that tends to knock out candidates.

Yeah, but that's playing to votes which won't help us in the General. Unless you count FL as the South (it's really it's own f-cked up thing).

I'd actually rather speak to those dimwits in the Rust Belt before going out of my way to appeal to the Black Belt. We've got a shot in PA; not in AL.

But I'd most rather ignore demographics entirely and just let the primaries play out honestly, with the message that galvanizes people rising to the top. The problem with making calculations beforehand and then stacking the deck for the candidate is you will likely guess wrong and wind up with a sh-t sandwich. Use the democratic brains god gave you and allow the electorate to choose the nominee. That's how you wind up with the maximally popular and successful General candidate.

This is a situation in which top-down Comtian planning does us badly. "Let it go" and let the will of the public be heard. For once.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Yeah, but that's playing to votes which won't help us in the General. Unless you count FL as the South (it's really it's own f-cked up thing).

I'd actually rather speak to those dimwits in the Rust Belt before going out of my way to appeal to the Black Belt. We've got a shot in PA; not in AL.

But I'd most rather ignore demographics entirely and just let the primaries play out honestly, with the message that galvanizes people rising to the top. The problem with making calculations beforehand and then stacking the deck for the candidate is you will likely guess wrong and wind up with a sh-t sandwich. Use the democratic brains god gave you and allow the electorate to choose the nominee. That's how you wind up with the maximally popular and successful General candidate.

This is a situation in which top-down Comtian planning does us badly. "Let it go" and let the will of the public be heard. For once.

I think you're confusing two different things. Winning the primaries is going to be separate from winning the general election. In the general election, Texas and Georgia are irrelevant in that if Dems win those the race would have already been called long before. But for the primaries where earning delegates by congressional district is the rule (looking at you Mark Penn) whoever cleans up delegates in TX, FL, NC and GA is most likely your nominee.

I'm not recommending primary candidates pander to demographics. What I'm saying is whoever connects with these voters for whatever reason will be decisive. Whether that's Bernie, Beto, Biden, Mayor Pete, etc I couldn't tell you at this point, but IMO some seem to have more of an in for various reasons (Biden - well known and Obama VP, Sanders - well known, O'Rourke from Texas & has won in diverse district, Harris - only top tier non-white candidate) than others (I can't at this point see Klobachur, Gillenbrand, any of the sitting Congressmen, Warren unfortunately, Mayor Pete, etc etc kicking butt down there on Super Tuesday). This is how you *could* end up with a Biden nomination despite the party being to the left of him generally.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

I think you're confusing two different things. Winning the primaries is going to be separate from winning the general election. In the general election, Texas and Georgia are irrelevant in that if Dems win those the race would have already been called long before. But for the primaries where earning delegates by congressional district is the rule (looking at you Mark Penn) whoever cleans up delegates in TX, FL, NC and GA is most likely your nominee.

I am arguing exactly that point: it would behoove us to wind up with a nominee whose winning primary strategy replicates the same EV she will need in the General. Think of Hillary's 2016 romp through all those unwinnable states. That got her the nom. And in the general? It got us Dump.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

It's obvious that Buttigieg ticks the right boxes for yuppies, especially ones from the Midwest - he's white, young, handsome, and liberal enough. He doesn't look and sound like a senile CCCP commissar (Sanders), or your humorless, 1980s "corporate feminist" aunt (Klobuchar).

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

It's obvious that Buttigieg ticks the right boxes for yuppies, especially ones from the Midwest - he's white, young, handsome, and liberal enough. He doesn't look and sound like a senile CCCP commissar (Sanders), or your humorless, 1980s "corporate feminist" aunt (Klobuchar).

...and he has no policy ideas whatsoever.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

I am arguing exactly that point: it would behoove us to wind up with a nominee whose winning primary strategy replicates the same EV she will need in the General. Think of Hillary's 2016 romp through all those unwinnable states. That got her the nom. And in the general? It got us Dump.

Gotta agree to disagree here. You seem to be arguing for the Kerry election strategy per Bob Shrum which is to only concentrate on the bare minimum amount of states needed to win the election. Great if you run the table but not so much if you get a surprise (Ohio, in the case of that election which apparently they were counting on).

If a candidate is going to completely write off in no particular order NC, GA, FL and AZ to name a few recent wins and near misses, then not only do they give up any margin of error, but the GOP can then conserve resources to defend the states that they need. I want a nominee that can force Chump to defend NC so that it doesn't turn into VA for them, and one that can find that extra .1% of the vote in Florida that we've been losing by lately.

I'll also note that while Sanders won the MI primary, which a lot of his fans hang their hat on, he also lost the primaries in PA, OH, FL, IA, VA, NC etc etc - meaning his primary state victories didn't show a path to victory in the general election either.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

...and he has no policy ideas whatsoever.

Silly Scooby, real 'Muricans don't care about that airy-fairy "policy" malarkey. That's just for getting nerdy wonks all hot and bothered. Dem voters want a handsome young(ish) lad who talks about hope and change, and Republican voters want an abusive daddy who bellows about law and order. With few exceptions, that's the way things have worked since about 1960. Please try to keep up.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Silly Scooby, real 'Muricans don't care about that airy-fairy "policy" malarkey. That's just for getting nerdy wonks all hot and bothered. Dem voters want a handsome young(ish) lad who talks about hope and change, and Republican voters want an abusive daddy who bellows about law and order. With few exceptions, that's the way things have worked since about 1960. Please try to keep up.

Truth.

*sigh*

 

[joecct]

Silly Scooby, real 'Muricans don't care about that airy-fairy "policy" malarkey. That's just for getting nerdy wonks all hot and bothered. Dem voters want a handsome young(ish) lad who talks about hope and change, and Republican voters want an abusive daddy who bellows about law and order. With few exceptions, that's the way things have worked since about 1960. Please try to keep up.

Platitudes, Platitudes- a musical in two acts.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

How does this:

I'd actually rather speak to those dimwits in the Rust Belt before going out of my way to appeal to the Black Belt. We've got a shot in PA; not in AL.

square with this:

But I'd most rather ignore demographics entirely and just let the primaries play out honestly, with the message that galvanizes people rising to the top.

This is a situation in which top-down Comtian planning does us badly. "Let it go" and let the will of the public be heard. For once.

I mean I know the air is thin up in your Ivory Tower looking down on us Plebes (the irony of you mocking the Plutes is never lost on those of us who see you judge everyone BTW ) but you should still be able to realize you dont galvanize people by insulting large segments of them. Thank ranks up there in stupidity with college students attacking Chelsea because she came out AGAINST Antisemitism. Not a great look for the High and Mighty

Dont worry though...you and the rest of the bourgeois on the Coasts wont have to deal with us. We want nothing to do with your Avocado Toast and your paying 5 times more for the same things we get including your degrees.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

It's obvious that Buttigieg ticks the right boxes for yuppies, especially ones from the Midwest - he's white, young, handsome, and liberal enough. He doesn't look and sound like a senile CCCP commissar (Sanders), or your humorless, 1980s "corporate feminist" aunt (Klobuchar).

But is he gay enough to offset his rather Centrist military views? (and his religion) I am not sure the Bernie Bros will accept him unless he stops acting so straight

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers: Who ISN'T Running At This Point?

Gotta agree to disagree here. You seem to be arguing for the Kerry election strategy per Bob Shrum which is to only concentrate on the bare minimum amount of states needed to win the election. Great if you run the table but not so much if you get a surprise (Ohio, in the case of that election which apparently they were counting on).

If a candidate is going to completely write off in no particular order NC, GA, FL and AZ to name a few recent wins and near misses, then not only do they give up any margin of error, but the GOP can then conserve resources to defend the states that they need. I want a nominee that can force Chump to defend NC so that it doesn't turn into VA for them, and one that can find that extra .1% of the vote in Florida that we've been losing by lately.

I'll also note that while Sanders won the MI primary, which a lot of his fans hang their hat on, he also lost the primaries in PA, OH, FL, IA, VA, NC etc etc - meaning his primary state victories didn't show a path to victory in the general election either.

Kepler and his group dont believe liberals in any state but California and NY matter. Liberals in Red States...they should be put in Flaggys Wal-Mart Death Camps