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2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Rover said:
People might want to ease off on the Buttigieg is the nominee schtick for a little while.
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Is anybody saying he will be the nominee? The argument is whether he would make a competitive one. I think he would. I think all the top five (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris) would.

It looks like Klobuchar will beat Harris out for fifth in both IA and NH. That kills Harris unless she wins in SC (she is currently polling 5% there) and gives us the top four. And then those four run for a while. Biden never gets out no matter what, it's his last dance. The loser of the Sanders/Warren h2h eventually drops out and endorses the other. Let's say that's Warren for the sake of argument.

The question is, what shape is the Democratic electorate in the primaries? If it's anything north of 60/40 Centrist then Biden probably wins the nomination unless he completely collapses. With say a Biden/Pete 70/30 split and a Center/Left split of 60/40, Biden comes into the convention with 42% of the electorate which translates to over 50% of the delegates.

Likewise, a Center/Left split of 50/50 means the combined delegates for Warren and Sanders are going to be around 50% and the leader between them will also lead the field. Since delegates remain committed on the first ballot that means Warren (remember, we're assuming she's the Left survivor, but it could as easily be the other way) is in the low 40s on the first ballot. The second ballot happens and the superdelegates are released. If Biden is trailing Warren significantly (>5%) then, with the Sanders delegates moving to Warren, the superdelegates will make it a love in and indeed at that point I would expect a nomination for Warren by acclamation to start the hugs and kisses.

If Biden completely disintegrates, as in the final Center split is like 70/30 Buttigieg, then the Biden delegates and supers push him through on the second ballot regardless of the Center/Left party balance, because the supers have an excuse to hose the Left (again).

So, there are ways for each of four to win. At this point the odds I'd lay are:

.4 Biden
.3 Warren
.1 Sanders
.1 Buttigieg
.1 a convention white knight. Let's say Sherrod Brown to swing OH and the election.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

I 100% do NOT think Mayor Pete will be the candidate. I think he has the power to crown them though.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

BassAle said:
I don't think most of us have a problem with Bernie's tax plan. Again, most of us would be perfectly happy if Bernie won.

pointing out valid concerns about his health, or pointing out that Trix is an idiot does not meany we have a policy disagreement.
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Every major candidate with the exception of Mayor Pete is over 70 years old. Let's not pretend they're all spring chickens.
 
ticapnews said:
You don't have a point for me to miss so instead you're just insulting me.
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Try reading it again...see if you can come up with a reason why calling a candidate a sociopath without proof vs calling how supporters may view their chosen candidate as a God...not only is different but why the former is likely a bad idea.
Can you figure that one out?
 
Rover said:
People might want to ease off on the Buttigieg is the nominee schtick for a little while. The guy had one good poll in one state. He's statistical noise in NH and he's non-existent in South Carolina (polling at zero % in one survey). Maybe everyone can put away the knives at least until he shows a little more staying power.
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He's had multiple good polls in Iowa and is clearly rising in New Hampshire. Whether he can start attracting African American support is your one correct offering.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Handyman said:
I 100% do NOT think Mayor Pete will be the candidate. I think he has the power to crown them though.
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Interesting theory. I could probably buy that second sentence.

This might be an interesting question: Are there more viable candidates or people who could lock it down for the candidate? Are these people universal or for specific candidates?

I'm leaning towards there being fewer crowners than viable canddiates. There are probably four still viable candidates. Biden, Warren, Sanders, and at the fringe, Pete. Who are the people that could lock them in? Kepler mentioned Abrams would lock it down for Pete. Anyone else want to weigh in on the him or any of the other pairings?
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Iowa:
11/17 CNN Buttigieg 25, Warren 16, Biden 15, Sanders 15
11/17 CBS Buttigieg 21, Warren 18, Biden 22, Sanders 22
11/12 Monmouth Buttigieg 22, Warren 18, Biden 19, Sanders 13

New Hampshire:
11/17 CBS Warren 31, Biden 22, Sanders 20, Buttigieg 16
11/11 Quinnipiac Warren 16, Biden 20, Sanders 14, Buttigieg 15
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Rover said:
(polling at zero % in one survey)
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I believe you saw the same thing I did which was a predicted delegate count. He wasn't actually polling at zero, it was like 8%, but that would net him zero delegates.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
I believe you saw the same thing I did which was a predicted delegate count. He wasn't actually polling at zero, it was like 8%, but that would net him zero delegates.
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It was the Gravis poll but correct, this is more right as that was one out of 5 polls.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

South Carolina:
11/18 Quinnipiac Biden 33, Warren 13, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 6
11/17 CBS Biden 45, Warren 17, Sanders 15, Buttigieg 8
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

dxmnkd316 said:
Kepler mentioned Abrams would lock it down for Pete. Anyone else want to weigh in on the him or any of the other pairings?
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I meant that Abrams would be a great Veep pick to beat Dump. I didn't mean to suggests that Abrams would help him win the nom if he chose her before the convention was locked.

As a rule I hate it when candidates chose their Veeps early. The convention is the appropriate place for that because it should be in consultation with the party. It's the nominee's final choice, but beforehand everybody should have their say so there are no nasty surprises afterwards.

My Veep picks for beating Dump:

Biden. Best: Castro. Worst: a white guy
Warren. Best: Buttigieg. Worst: Sanders
Sanders. Best: Harris. Worst: Warren
Buttigieg. Best: Abrams. Worst: a white guy
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
I meant that Abrams would be a great Veep pick to beat Dump. I didn't mean to suggests that Abrams would help him win the nom if he chose her before the convention was locked.

As a rule I hate it when candidates chose their Veeps early. The convention is the appropriate place for that because it should be in consultation with the party. It's the nominee's final choice, but beforehand everybody should have their say so there are no nasty surprises afterwards.

My Veep picks for beating Dump:

Biden. Best: Castro. Worst: a white guy
Warren. Best: Buttigieg. Worst: Sanders
Sanders. Best: Harris. Worst: Warren
Buttigieg. Best: Abrams. Worst: a white guy
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Quite a contrast. Most Ds would like to see a woman on the ticket or at least someone who is not white and male. The Rs, meanwhile, have an old white male in the Oval who boasts that he grabs women by the puzzy and an old white male VP who refuses to be alone in a room with a woman.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
I meant that Abrams would be a great Veep pick to beat Dump. I didn't mean to suggests that Abrams would help him win the nom if he chose her before the convention was locked.

As a rule I hate it when candidates chose their Veeps early. The convention is the appropriate place for that because it should be in consultation with the party. It's the nominee's final choice, but beforehand everybody should have their say so there are no nasty surprises afterwards.

My Veep picks for beating Dump:

Biden. Best: Castro. Worst: a white guy
Warren. Best: Buttigieg. Worst: Sanders
Sanders. Best: Harris. Worst: Warren
Buttigieg. Best: Abrams. Worst: a white guy
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Sanders and Warren won't run together. They are both Democratic senators in states that have GOP governors (although VT is up for election) with a senate that might be 50-50 after November. If both were on a winning ticket any chance of a Democratic majority in the senate is gone. That also means neither can take a cabinet position if the other wins the White House.

I still think Andrew Gillum would be the perfect VP candidate for any of them.
 
trixR4kids said:
The police union met with and then lobbied for Pete after it was obvious that he was going to fire the chief, were happy that the white people would be in charge again, and then the chief was fired. And he won't release the tapes. Seems like a logical conclusion to draw here.
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Your conclusion you repeatedly cite as fact.
 
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