Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd
Biden, because he entered the front runner and he leaves the front runner. I too like most people don't think Biden is where the party is at right now. However, that's not the same discussion as to whether or not he becomes the nominee. That race is based on accumulating delegates and when Bennett/Delaney/Klobachur/Hickenlooper/etc start dropping out soon I suspect most of those center-left votes are going to go to Biden thus increasing his strength relative to Bernie/Lizzy/Kamala who continue to split to votes of the liberal wing. Remember, if you don't hit 15% in a primary you don't get any delegates IIRC. Something has to give with those 3.
Regarding Booker, right now he's a gnat. If he started rising in the polls he'd get the same treatment Harris got last night, which is people would actually start focusing in on his record.
Rambling post:
I heard it somewhere over the last 24 hours. I'm still not sure if it's a good point, but it sounded like it at first:
Biden did well because he has nine other people on the stage with him. He doesn't need to shine because he only gets a couple dozen minutes. Everyone else like MAW are just distractions. When it's whittled down to four or five candidates, hes' going to get crushed I'm guessing. Name recognition alone allows him to just stand up there and parry the blows. Everyone else needs to go on the attack but they have to separate themselves from everyone else in their lane and Biden might not be a target. You essentially have something like four lanes:
Moderates
Single-issues
Socialist/Populists
Morons
Gabbard, Williamson are fighting for the morons but they're fighting for scraps. Single-issue candidates (Inslee, Yang) tend to fight for an even smaller scrap; their supporters are extraordinarily dedicated and tend to not be peeled away. Populists (Bernie, Warren) are going to have to figure out which one is going to be the strongest to carry their banner against the most crowded lane. Which of course is the moderates. I'm not sure if Harris and Booker belong here though. But regardless, Biden, Harris, Pete, and Booker are going to be the last four standing in this lane and need to focus on each other before moving to the populists in the final debate series before Super Tuesday.
Biden might do fine as we get smaller, but I'm not confident. Let's assume the final five are: Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, and Pete (based on national polls). You essentially have a much tighter field who aren't single-issue candidates. They don't have a gimmick and must have substance. Once you get down to the final populist candidate vs. the final moderate candidate (or two), it will be the real debate on the issues. That's when the Democrats need to figure out how they want to approach the election. If Biden has to fight against a strong moderate and a strong populist, it's going to be tough to straddle the two lanes. I think he gets run over by someone with more passion.
