2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

What percentage of voters is legitimately in play here--talking votes, not turnout? 10-15%? When you guys identify your favorites, are you doing that with those voters in mind, or is that balancing act for later?

Realistically, the number of people actually on the fence about this very polarizing administration is probably something like 3-4 percent of likely voters. So using the ~138 million voter turnout of 2016, between 4 and 5.5 million people.

I'd say that could get up to 10 percent if the economy starts to tank between now and November 3, 2020. Some talkative economists have said it's already started, most people just haven't noticed yet because few people ever pay attention to leading indicators.

I identify candidates I like based on what they say that resonates with me, not based on how much I think I could get my Bern-out uncle to come around to supporting them. My right-wing uncles are lost causes who will vote for Trump again, so no sense in even considering that a factor.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

Realistically, the number of people actually on the fence about this very polarizing administration is probably something like 3-4 percent of likely voters.

I'll bet it's even fewer. Maybe <1%.

Elections are about turnout. Since voting became aligned with culture everybody has their mind made up, because you don't change culture. Either you're a frustrated, sadistic loser or you're a liberal.

Changes in election results are driven solely by turnout now. There are zero independents.

 

[joecct]

I'll bet it's even fewer. Maybe <1%.

Elections are about turnout. Since voting became aligned with culture everybody has their mind made up, because you don't change culture. Either you're a frustrated, sadistic loser or you're a liberal.

Changes in election results are driven solely by turnout now. There are zero independents.

Primaries moreso.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I love The Onion.

 

[burd]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I'll bet it's even fewer. Maybe <1%.

Elections are about turnout. Since voting became aligned with culture everybody has their mind made up, because you don't change culture. Either you're a frustrated, sadistic loser or you're a liberal.

Changes in election results are driven solely by turnout now. There are zero independents.

So the opinions expressed above are either about which candidate would get the most supporters to the polls or are purely academic--for shyts and giggles only and not about which candidates we should support up until nomination.

 

[solovsfett]

Though it is possible that Bernie (b. 41) also nailed Marilyn (d. 62) .

Heck, Gravel's only 5 years younger than Bobby. Think about that. Mike Gravel was eligible to run for president in 1968. Pete Buttigieg wasn't born until 1982.

If you m an to impy Bobby Kennedy had sex with Monroe tfat’s Not true. And that comes not only from Kennedy aides but Monroe herself.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

If you m an to impy Bobby Kennedy had sex with Monroe tfat’s Not true. And that comes not only from Kennedy aides but Monroe herself.

I assume the Kennedy boys spit-roasted Marilyn. They did everything else together.

 

[busterman62]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I'll bet it's even fewer. Maybe <1%.

Elections are about turnout. Since voting became aligned with culture everybody has their mind made up, because you don't change culture. Either you're a frustrated, sadistic loser or you're a liberal.

Changes in election results are driven solely by turnout now. There are zero independents.

Gallup says you are FOS but what do they know?
I guess I will start describing myself as "Non-Aligned"

 

[solovsfett]

I love these false equivalencies. They're so entertaining. It's like Charlottesville. Both sides, dude.

What does this mean? Bobby Kennedy advocated the poor people’s campaign, end Vietnam and much more. He gave this speech:
https://youtu.be/77IdKFqXbUY

And he was told he would be killed if he continued on the peace path like his brother. I’ll find that exchange and post it here. He basically went full on knowing he’d be targeted.

No-one imo in today’s field nor for 50 years can come close to that real moral courage.

Like King at Riverside saying our country was the greatest purveyor of violence in the world

 

[solovsfett]

I assume the Kennedy boys spit-roasted Marilyn. They did everything else together.

I really respect your opinions but please, I can recommend books that discuss and reveal the campaign to destroy these men.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

Gallup says you are FOS but what do they know?
I guess I will start describing myself as "Non-Aligned"

You're missing the point. Plenty of people call themselves Independents. 538 did an analysis a few years ago: Independents are just people who don't like to call themselves R or D, but they still vote R or D all the time. They're contrarians who like to think of themselves as open minded but they always just happen to come down on the same side.

It's an affectation.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I really respect your opinions but please, I can recommend books that discuss and reveal the campaign to destroy these men.

Destroy? If anything it raises them.

 

[busterman62]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

You're missing the point. Plenty of people call themselves Independents. 538 did an analysis a few years ago: Independents are just people who don't like to call themselves R or D, but they still vote R or D all the time. They're contrarians who like to think of themselves as open minded but they always just happen to come down on the same side.

It's an affectation.

No, I understand completely. Many of those who claim to be Independent are deluding themselves. Hell, I still call myself an athlete but that's far from the truth. However, to say that the number of Independents is essentially zero is equally delusional. Use that high priced Liberal Arts education and quit thinking everything is black or white.

Indeed, many self-identified independents are not the moderate, persuadable swing voters they are often portrayed to be. As Amy Walter from the Cook Political Report has pointed out, independents usually lean towards one party or the other, even as they claim a nonpartisan label. Some lean Democratic or GOP. As Walter discussed, true independents only make up about 10 percent of all voters. Further, voters who typically favor the GOP make up a larger percentage of self-identified independents than they do of voters overall, which can make independents a Republican-leaning group relative to the electorate. In fact, the self-identified independents who consistently favor one party are often more ideologically extreme than those who identify with either party. That is, there is no reason to believe that independents should necessarily reflect the will of the overall electorate.

We're out there

 

[ericredaxe]

You're missing the point. Plenty of people call themselves Independents. 538 did an analysis a few years ago: Independents are just people who don't like to call themselves R or D, but they still vote R or D all the time. They're contrarians who like to think of themselves as open minded but they always just happen to come down on the same side.

It's an affectation.

In 2018 I voted for the republican for governor and the democrat for senate.

Am I allowed to call myself an independent?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I'll bet it's even fewer. Maybe <1%.

Elections are about turnout. Since voting became aligned with culture everybody has their mind made up, because you don't change culture. Either you're a frustrated, sadistic loser or you're a liberal.

Changes in election results are driven solely by turnout now. There are zero independents.

I still think that number is higher depending on how you categorize an undecided.

I think there are only a few people who are debating between trump and a democrat. But I’m also guessing there is a large fraction (10-20% maybe) who haven’t decided between the Democrat and their couch or third party.

Those are the votes the democrats have to fight over. Don’t worry about the people who can’t decide between trump and the democrat. They’re too stupid to be won over logically.

And that 10-20 aren’t the Bernie bros. These are independents and republicans who can’t stand trump but can’t quite bring themselves to vote D.

 

[ericredaxe]

I still think that number is higher depending on how you categorize an undecided.

I think there are only a few people who are debating between trump and a democrat. But I’m also guessing there is a large fraction (10-20% maybe) who haven’t decided between the Democrat and their couch or third party.

Those are the votes the democrats have to fight over. Don’t worry about the people who can’t decide between trump and the democrat. They’re too stupid to be won over logically.

And that 10-20 aren’t the Bernie bros. These are independents and republicans who can’t stand trump but can’t quite bring themselves to vote D.

I too doubt it is deciding between Trump and the democrat so much as it is winning back voters who took a flyer on trump because they didn’t like Hillary. It will take the right candidate to do that.

 

[busterman62]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

In 2018 I voted for the republican for governor and the democrat for senate.

Am I allowed to call myself an independent?

You are allowed to call yourself an Independent but you don't really exist. You are a figment of your imagination.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

In 2018 I voted for the republican for governor and the democrat for senate.

Am I allowed to call myself an independent?

I'd say you take your career votes for Prez, Gov, Senate and Rep. Weight the Prez, I dunno, maybe 3 or 5. If you're over 67% for any party you're not an independent.

I'm something like:

70% Dem
20% Libertarian
5% Green
5% Republican

I'm not an Independent. I'm a Dem who used to like to sleep around with Third Parties.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

I don't believe based upon the data and available analyses that voters that have voted both D or R is limited to 1% of the turnout. Kep is right that the more that turnout the better it will be for the Democratic nominee - this is not up for debate. However, I know people that voted for Obama then for Trump, and they have said they hope the Dems nominate just about anyone but Sanders/Biden.

 

[walrus]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: The Wrath of Warren

You're missing the point. Plenty of people call themselves Independents. 538 did an analysis a few years ago: Independents are just people who don't like to call themselves R or D, but they still vote R or D all the time. They're contrarians who like to think of themselves as open minded but they always just happen to come down on the same side.

It's an affectation.

I would vote for almost anyone who wasn't a D or an R.