Kepler
Si certus es dubita
2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
538 thinks the joists are rotting.
538 thinks the joists are rotting.
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2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
- Thread starter Kepler
- Start date
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Not really, not anymore. They've been getting by because the Dems have been dumb. But the Dems' worst obvious self-inflicted wounds were vaporized in 2016.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Not really, not anymore. They've been getting by because the Dems have been dumb. But the Dems' worst obvious self-inflicted wounds were vaporized in 2016.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Well, I'd say Dems need to start bagging some wins to keep the enthusiasm going. That starts with GA-6 and the NJ & VA governor's races this year.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Well, I'd say Dems need to start bagging some wins to keep the enthusiasm going. That starts with GA-6 and the NJ & VA governor's races this year.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Well it will also depend on the candidates. This Guy could easily unseat Paulsen IMHO. Reading his bio it is tailor made for political office.
Father died in Vietnam, mother remarried into the Phillips family. (liquor) He went to Brown, worked in the family business, left to create a new business and that flourished as well. Family does tons of charity work and is big in Philanthropic circles.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Well it will also depend on the candidates. This Guy could easily unseat Paulsen IMHO. Reading his bio it is tailor made for political office.
Father died in Vietnam, mother remarried into the Phillips family. (liquor) He went to Brown, worked in the family business, left to create a new business and that flourished as well. Family does tons of charity work and is big in Philanthropic circles.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...
Who. Shows. Up.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...
Who. Shows. Up.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Well, I was quoting Michelle to rile up the Haters. But yes, that's certainly what matters. I think these last few elections have laid to rest any notion that anyone's mind is changed by campaigns. An election is a turnout fight. People have long since locked into their belief system and nothing's going to change it.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...
Who. Shows. Up.
Well, I was quoting Michelle to rile up the Haters. But yes, that's certainly what matters. I think these last few elections have laid to rest any notion that anyone's mind is changed by campaigns. An election is a turnout fight. People have long since locked into their belief system and nothing's going to change it.
SonofSouthie
Misanthrope
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
538 also had Clinton winning in a rout.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
538 also had Clinton winning in a rout.
unofan
Well-known member
No, it didn't. It gave Trump a larger chance than any other predictive site. It gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning, but it consistently predicted it'd be relatively close (to put it in sports terms, it said Clinton was the favorite to win, but it'd probably take 6 games, if not 7). It also understood more than anyone that if the polls missed in one state, they likely missed in similar states in similar ways.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
538 missed.
NYT missed ... and very late in the game.
http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg
How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
538 missed.
NYT missed ... and very late in the game.
http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg
How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
It's not just who shows up. It's which faction can get the most loyalty to the party over the person. And right now the Dems don't get any party loyalty while the GOP gets it in spades.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...
Who. Shows. Up.
It's not just who shows up. It's which faction can get the most loyalty to the party over the person. And right now the Dems don't get any party loyalty while the GOP gets it in spades.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
You just posted a link to WND followed by a question about believability...
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
You just posted a link to WND followed by a question about believability...
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Check their sampling. See if they over-sample, which they constantly did this time around to push the narrative.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Check their sampling. See if they over-sample, which they constantly did this time around to push the narrative.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Touche.
However, I was watching the NYT site on election night.
That is the NYT "probablity of winning" real-time graphic from that evening.
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Touche.
However, I was watching the NYT site on election night.
That is the NYT "probablity of winning" real-time graphic from that evening.
unofan
Well-known member
The same way you believe oddsmakers after an underdog wins a sporting event. Just because the USA beat Russia in 1980 doesn't mean everyone was wrong to make Russia the heavy favorite in that game.
SonofSouthie
Misanthrope
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
I was referring a rout in regards to electoral votes. On Nov 8th 538 had Clinton forecast 302 ev's, trump 235. Even their % of winning was 71.4 to 28.6 in favor of Clinton. R-O-U-T.
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
33 EVs to spare and 70% likelihood are routs now?
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
33 EVs to spare and 70% likelihood are routs now?
unofan
Well-known member
Facts don't trump his truthiness (pun intended). A 3:1 underdog never wins.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
This is where one remembers that the Warriors and Indians blew 3-1 leads. 2016 was interesting that way. (Silver even had a post about how Clinton and the Indians had the same lead in mid- October)
Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."
This is where one remembers that the Warriors and Indians blew 3-1 leads. 2016 was interesting that way. (Silver even had a post about how Clinton and the Indians had the same lead in mid- October)
