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2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

MND3Dad said:
KRACH is irrelevant because it leans too heavily on initial ratings.
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Although I am definitely not a fan of KRACH, I think you should know that this is not a true statement. Every game played matters in determining KRACH. As a statistician I have issues about the suitability of Bradley-Terry (which is it's real name - "Ken" just adapted it) as a metric for comparing hockey performance over the course of the season, but the ratings don't really depend on the "initial ratings." It is a fairly stable rating, which means it will change slowly from the first published ranking, but subsequent rankings are not based on what the previous (or initial) ratings are. The model can't be computed until the competition graph is connected, which is why it isn't published until mid season, but the actual rating is based on the entirety of the schedule.
 
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Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

brokentwig said:
River Falls will not split this weekend. They are just starting to roll! Watch out Plattsburgh
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You may still end up being right about the split thing, just not how you thought...looks like Eau Claire could end up 3-0 on the Falcons for the season and the #1 seed for the conference by this time tomorrow.
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

I don't know what's crazier out west...the fact that Eau Claire is beating River Falls or that Augsburg is gonna win the MIAC.
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

Birdwatcher said:
Technically they all are practice except the final one since the once ranked always ranked is gone.
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Mathematically that makes no sense, since the rankings depending on the record vs. ranked teams, which can't be determined until the rankings are determined, which depends on who is ranked, which depends on record vs. ranked teams ... and so it goes. It is a recursive process, which may converge or may cycle. With once ranked always ranked you don't have that problem.
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

gojackets said:
I don't know what's crazier out west...the fact that Eau Claire is beating River Falls or that Augsburg is gonna win the MIAC.
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Ugh... WT-?! It was one of those nights for RF, couldn't score early and dug to big of a hole. Not good, not good.
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

For Fun...cuz I'm bored.

My shot at the regional rankings.

West Region
1. Adrian
2. River Falls
3. Lake Forest
4. Gustavus
5. Augsburg
6. Eau Claire


East Region
1. Plattsburgh
2. Elmira
3. Norwich
4. Hamilton
5. Middlebury
6. Endicott (?)


Looking ahead...if Adrian sweeps Lake Forest and wins the NCHA title...they should be the clear #1 team in the west.

If Lake Forest can win one or two though, it'd make the Pool C discussion a lot more interesting.


I can't remember is the results against ranked only "in region" or is it all?
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

The men's rankings are up (have been for a couple of hours) but I'm seeing nothing on the women's side.
 
Scott_TG said:
The men's rankings are up (have been for a couple of hours) but I'm seeing nothing on the women's side.
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I just looked and they are up. They have a category that is "regional rankings" and they show last years. If you go to the drop down and select "regional ranking" It has this years......weird.
 
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Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

East
1. Plattsburgh
2. Middlebury
3. Norwich
4. Elmira
5. Oswego
6. Endicott

West
1. River Falls
2. Adrian
3. Gustavus
4. Lake Forest
5. Augsburg
6. St.Scholastica

I was pretty much right with the west. I'm a little surprised to see that River Falls is 1. I though Adrian would have jumped over them, but I suppose it could be hurting Adrian that their losses are to a ranked team where River Falls' losses are not. I don't know how St Scholastica is ranked over Eaau Claire.

Anyone else surprised by the east rankings?? I guess Elmira lost to Norwich and tied Midd...seems like 2-4 are a toss up there. Oswego is in 4th place in the ECAC-W and has lost to Hamilton and some lesser ECACW teams. Hamilton has some bad losses as well but swept Middlebury. Granted the 5 slot isn't that important unless your trying to build a case for an east team over a west team ;). But you'd have to think if it came down to Oswego vs Lake Forest for the last slot Lake Forest would win that comparison.
 
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gojackets said:
East
1. Plattsburgh
2. Middlebury
3. Norwich
4. Elmira
5. Oswego
6. Endicott

West
1. River Falls
2. Adrian
3. Gustavus
4. Lake Forest
5. Augsburg
6. St.Scholastica

I was pretty much right with the west. I'm a little surprised to see that River Falls is 1. I though Adrian would have jumped over them, but I suppose it could be hurting Adrian that their losses are to a ranked team where River Falls' losses are not. I don't know how St Scholastica is ranked over Eaau Claire.

Anyone else surprised by the east rankings?? I guess Elmira lost to Norwich and tied Midd...seems like 2-4 are a toss up there. Oswego is in 4th place in the ECAC-W and has lost to Hamilton and some lesser ECACW teams. Hamilton has some bad losses as well but swept Middlebury. Granted the 5 slot isn't that important unless your trying to build a case for an east team over a west team ;). But you'd have to think if it came down to Oswego vs Lake Forest for the last slot Lake Forest would win that comparison.
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I was surprised to see Midd as #2... until it was brought to my attention that their SOS is .599, which is the best by far...
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

gojackets said:
East
1. Plattsburgh
2. Middlebury
3. Norwich
4. Elmira
5. Oswego
6. Endicott

West
1. River Falls
2. Adrian
3. Gustavus
4. Lake Forest
5. Augsburg
6. St.Scholastica

I was pretty much right with the west. I'm a little surprised to see that River Falls is 1. I though Adrian would have jumped over them, but I suppose it could be hurting Adrian that their losses are to a ranked team where River Falls' losses are not. I don't know how St Scholastica is ranked over Eaau Claire.
.
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As for River Falls over Adrian, I think it comes down to SOS. Adrian's is .482 and UWRF is .526.
 
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spwood said:
First of all, where are you getting those? As of a minute ago, NCAA.com was still showing last year's (although the spreadsheets are current). As for River Falls over Adrian, I think it comes down to SOS. Adrian's is .482 and UWRF is .526.
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See previous post explaining that you have to change the drop-down menu from the default "regional rankingS" to the one that reads "regional ranking"
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
See previous post explaining that you have to change the drop-down menu from the default "regional rankingS" to the one that reads "regional ranking"
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Looks like in the url they left off the s in rankings and it wrote a new file instead of overwriting the old one. At the time I posted that wasn't there...
 
Re: 2017 Women's D-III NCAA Selection Thread

gojackets said:
Granted the 5 slot isn't that important unless your trying to build a case for an east team over a west team ;). But you'd have to think if it came down to Oswego vs Lake Forest for the last slot Lake Forest would win that comparison.
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I think with the Frozen Four mandated to be out west you won't need to worry about that this year...

I'm sure NESCAC heads are spinning to see Oswego up there over another mighty mighty NESCAC team.

And they're not even one of the ECAC West private schools that are all of a sudden too good for us SUNYs either....
 
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spwood said:
As for River Falls over Adrian, I think it comes down to SOS. Adrian's is .482 and UWRF is .526.
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Yeah I thought Adrian's games against Plattsburgh/Elmira would put them ahead, but over half the NCHA has losing records...and River Falls didn't play any of them, where Adrian had too. Makes sense now I suppose. I'd book your tickets to MSP if your planning on going to the finals :).
 
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