2017 Pairwise thread

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.

So therefore:

No. 8 Union is placed in No. 1 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional. (then Union goes east).
No. 7 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Western Michigan is placed in No. 3 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.

I know. I'm asking why he swaps Union with Western Michigan instead of swapping BU with Western Michigan.

When he brings Union east, it sets up a first round matchup with Cornell, which is obviously not allowed. That then forces him to move Cornell to Manchester, swapping them with Air Force.

If he had just swapped BU with Western Michigan, the bracket could be finished without any further moves. It seems like BU (#7) deserves to be rewarded by coming East over Union (#8).

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Moy being right on this one.

 

[J.D.]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

There are a ton of options this year but as a neutral since BC is out, i firmly believe denver should go to cincy and you build around that

 

[J.D.]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

A lot of times there might be one tough decision but this is actually fascinating

 

[J.D.]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

One thing i would like to ask jim montgomery is if he would rather play #16 in fargo with UND possibly looming or how about play #15 ohio state in Cincinnati?

How about that as an option?

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Kinda funny worrying about attendance when these barns are historically empty for the most part. One can't polish a turd.

 

[ticapnews]

One thing i would like to ask jim montgomery is if he would rather play #16 in fargo with UND possibly looming or how about play #15 ohio state in Cincinnati?

How about that as an option?

They didn't get into opponents but he did say Denver shouldn't be going any further east than Cincinnati.

The problem for Denver is the "flight is a flight" mentality of the NCAA. Unless they are hosting they are flying. They won't go to Providence and it's highly unlikely they go to Manchester. No matter where they end up they should be paired with Tech. That means Fargo.

 

[LordofBrewtown]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Very interesting to look at the pairwise comparison grid, and imagine how different the rankings would be this year if RPI was not the tie-breaker; but, head-to-head and then record vs common opponents instead. Rankings would have changed drastically (Denver no longer the #1 overall, Lowell getting a #1 seed by my calc's).

 

[alslammerz]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

My prediction:

I don't think they make the #1 team come all the way across the country, but I also think they try to protect Denver from North Dakota in Fargo. So...

Cincinnati
1. Denver v. 16 Michigan Tech
6. Western Michigan v. 9 Penn State

Fargo
2. Minnesota-Duluth v. 15. Ohio State
8. Union v. 10. North Dakota

Providence
3. Harvard v. 14 Providence
7. Boston University v. 11. Cornell

Manchester
4. Minnesota v. 13. Notre Dame
5. UMass-Lowell v. 12. Air Force

Changes:
1. From the purest bracket, Union in Cincy, BU in Fargo, and Western Michigan in Providence doesn't make a lot of sense travel or attendance wise. However since there are 3 eastern teams in the 2 band, someone has to travel. I can't just swap BU and Western though, because that creates a NCHC matchup, and I can't swap Union and Western because that creates an ECAC matchup. So here we get a 3 team shuffle. BU comes east and helps to boost Providence's attendance that much more (and makes a very compelling bracket). Union, as the lowest 2 seed, gets North Dakota in Fargo. And Western stays somewhat closer to home, getting Penn State.

Non-Changes:
1. Notre Dame could move but I chose not to. They travel to the east all the time, they are nominally a Hockey East team, and they have plenty of East Coast support. Messing with the bracket for their benefit seems pointless and I'd be sending a western team east anyway.
2. Likewise with Air Force - they are travelling wherever I put them. The closest regional would be Fargo, but I can't move their banded team because that's North Dakota. Penn State in Cincinnati is not traveling to far, so switching Air Force there messes up bracket integrity and travel for barely less of a fix for Air Force than if I left them. I could see swapping them for Cornell so that Cornell brings attendance to Manchester because Providence's attendance will be more than fine even without them, but let's be honest, that Providence bracket has storylines galore.
3. There's certainly an argument for moving Ohio State to Cincinnati here, for travel and attendance purposes. The question is 1. do you do it by putting the number 1 seed in Fargo? Or having them play a 15 seed? If the committee doesn't care about the potential Fargo home ice situation, I can see that being the one flip - 1/16 in Fargo, 2/15 in Ohio.

 

[Scarlet]

If he had just swapped BU with Western Michigan, the bracket could be finished without any further moves. It seems like BU (#7) deserves to be rewarded by coming East over Union (#8).

Especially since BU beat Union. Which I know probably means nothing, but thought I'd throw it out there.

Question-if BU had beaten BC then lost to UML, and everything else remained the same, would they be in any different position this morning?

 

[alslammerz]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Especially since BU beat Union. Which I know probably means nothing, but thought I'd throw it out there.

Question-if BU had beaten BC then lost to UML, and everything else remained the same, would they be in any different position this morning?

I changed the result of the BU-BC game on College Hockey News' tool and it gave BU a #1 seed (4th in PWR). But I'm not sure if when I make that switch if the program is having UML beat BU or BC so that may not be 100% accurate.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

While we wait, let's do this:

What do we agree on?
1- Denver, as the overall #1, plays MTU.
2- For bracket integrity, #8 Union goes in Denver's bracket
3- Western, as a #2 'close' to Cincinnati, will play in Cincinnati.
4- Neither Denver nor UMD goes east. One western team has to go east as a #1, and it's going to be Minnesota.

Questions:
1- Is NoDak as a #3 in the Fargo bracket enough of a concern that Denver goes to Cincinnati, and UMD to Fargo? (This saves a flight also)
2- Does Providence play at home? If so, does the committee 'protect' #3 Harvard, who has quite a gap to Minnesota as #4, from playing Providence?
3- Does the committee necessarily think there is a difference between OSU, Providence, and NoDame as #4 seeds? (This is different from past years, because AFA is a #3).
4- Does Penn State get moved to Cincinnati for attendance and savings on travel cost?
5- Does the committee put the eastern teams in the 2/3 bands and Harvard (of whom there are 5 altogether), 4 and 1 in the 2 regions, or 3 and 2?
6- Probably substantially answered more by the other questions, but, "Is there a chance Union does NOT play NoDak?"

There is no 'perfect' answer. And, no "right" and "wrong" except that, for competitive equity, no favors SHOULD be made to Providence. Although, the committee might. But, that's the one WRONG that is possible here.

 

[ticapnews]

I changed the result of the BU-BC game on College Hockey News' tool and it gave BU a #1 seed (4th in PWR). But I'm not sure if when I make that switch if the program is having UML beat BU or BC so that may not be 100% accurate.

You can't change other results so it's still BC-UML in the final. IIRC from other scenarios this week BU would still be a 2-seed, 5 overall with Lowell 6 and WMU 7.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Penn State is flying no matter - barely. State College is actually closer to Providence (415 miles) than Cincinnati (426).

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Very interesting to look at the pairwise comparison grid, and imagine how different the rankings would be this year if RPI was not the tie-breaker; but, head-to-head and then record vs common opponents instead. Rankings would have changed drastically (Denver no longer the #1 overall, Lowell getting a #1 seed by my calc's).

if uhn won 6 more games THEY would have made the ncaa's!!

 

[Biddco]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

It is just me or it is becoming a trend where there are some questions and intrigue before the official ones are unveiled?

 

[J.D.]

It is just me or it is becoming a trend where there are some questions and intrigue before the official ones are unveiled?

I just can't remember there being as many options as there are this year. I looked at 3-4 so called experts. All have different brackets. Usually there is a consensus or maybe only one tough decision. Maybe because there aren't as many intra conference matchup problems?

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I know no one here will probably believe me but Ohio State or MTU in cincinnati is going to be a wash for attendance.

 

[Nowheresville]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

1- Is NoDak as a #3 in the Fargo bracket enough of a concern that Denver goes to Cincinnati, and UMD to Fargo? (This saves a flight also)

To me, that's really the only significant question. Does the committee follow geography and send Denver to Fargo or protect Denver from UND and send them to Cincinnati. The decision doesn't really save a flight, though, because, if UMD drives to Fargo, OSU would fly there, while if UMD goes to Cinci, OSU would drive there.

The Providence issue is a little interesting, but based on the fact that last time a regional was in Providence, Providence was also a 4 seed and got put in Providence, even though by seeding they should have been sent west, it seems unlikely that Harvard would be protected. Of course, Providence went on to win the title after being given that advantage, so maybe the NC$$ won't do that again, but I'd still bet reduce costs win out over competitive fairness.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I changed the result of the BU-BC game on College Hockey News' tool and it gave BU a #1 seed (4th in PWR). But I'm not sure if when I make that switch if the program is having UML beat BU or BC so that may not be 100% accurate.

You will have to do the math....So here is what to do:
First, note BU's win%age, w-l-t record and RPI currently.
Now, add one more win, and recalculate their win%age.
Subtract, and note how much it improves.
Since Win%age is 25% of RPI, first add to their initial RPI, 1/4 of the resultant gain.
Then, figure out the QWB for a neutral site win against BC. Add that as well. (Quick calc...add about .0003 or .0004)
The result is very very very close to what their RPI would have been in the scenario you described.

I get .0026 of gain, so they would hop Minnesota by about .0003 for that last #1.
Unfortunately, there is also a schedule change there. So, let me think....Adding a game with UML would raise the Oppwin%. OppOpp wouldn't change much.
I think they would have had the last #1. But, without the ability to do a full calculation, I can't say that for sure.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

in 2009 bu could have been sent to bridgeport to avoid a host in the 3 seed at manchvegas. that 3 seed won and bu did indeed have to face them. bu won.


the seeding is straightforward this year. no conf matchup concerns. easy peasy. mookie would be shocked if they flipped around stuff where there is no need to to help 'attendance' when there is seemingly no care when they award sites (cincinnnati, ahem ).

on a personal note mookie hopes they do and keep bu in the east. but bu should be in fargo.