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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Hmm... Euro has Irma as a major Hurricane centered directly over my house Sunday. Happens to be Mrs. McBadgerton's Birthday! Looking more and more like we will be taking one for the team...

Things are moving along down here. Collier County (Naples) has called for voluntary evacuation to get started, schools will close Thursday and Friday. Lee County (Ft Myers, Sanibel, Cape Coral;named after Robert E :eek: )hasn't made a call yet but will likely follow suit shortly. With Irma looking like it will move pretty much South to North it's a bit difficult to decide where to go. It will be just be following everyone North. Plus right now Irma is about 300 miles wide. FL is mostly around 150 miles wide. Major hurricane moving up the west coast could be really devastating. NE quadrants are always the worst, and millions of people and lots of low, low land from below Naples up well past Tampa. All that could go well under water.
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Jebus....good luck.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

How does mookie forecast? Tea leaves, chicken bones, or camel dung?
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Overnight model runs have shifted east a bit, and NHC advisory reflecting about a half step until future models show consistency.

Good news for me and Wisko on the gulf coast, but I have a good friend in Freeport Bahamas and others up the eastern seaboard that could see it now. Kinda torn.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Greyeagle said:
Jebus....good luck.
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Thanks! ...Wow... Perhaps I should consider taking take back some of the many, many awful things I've said about gophers over the years....





Ok... I've considered it ------> Nope! :p
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

hockeyplayer1015 said:
Overnight model runs have shifted east a bit, and NHC advisory reflecting about a half step until future models show consistency.

Good news for me and Wisko on the gulf coast, but I have a good friend in Freeport Bahamas and others up the eastern seaboard that could see it now. Kinda torn.
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Hope you're still in TX? Or are you hustling back to catch a piece of Irma too? Sheesh... what luck.


Stores out of water, gas stations out of gas in much of S FL as everybody is getting ready. Fortunately the big run started early enough that resupply will probably get in well before the storm. Pretty much everything is closing Thursday and Friday in SW Florida. A better shift overnight for the West coast, but we're all pretty reluctant to feel better about Irma as the track has shifted back and forth every day. When will it Turn? Bermuda high shifts east and the high over the US sinks lower and Irma heads North between them... Where that will exactly be located is anyone's guess yet and 100 miles could make a huge difference.

And yeah... my house not getting crushed might mean two or three others some place else get it. Hard to feel good about these shifts either way. I personally know a number of people who have/will head toward South Carolina... today Irma may follow... tomorrow who knows? For most of the locals in S. FL I'd say the current anxiety is pretty high, but it's caused as much by uncertainty as anything else. If some body just could say "Here's what's going to happen." everybody could just get on with going about their plan and would feel a bit better.

Going to go put on the hurricane shutters this morning. Barring a major change, currently planning on heading North tomorrow.



Edit: Oh and one more thing, current NHC has the 5 day eye centered just a few miles west of Okeechobee which is held back by the Herbert Hoover dike. Everyone knows the dike is in need of repair... Biggest disaster here was in 1928 when the San Felipe hurricane drown nearly 2000 people after the western dike was smashed... A similar failure now would be an unimaginable catastrophic disaster.
 
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Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Good luck Wisko.

My sister is in Boca. I've told her she is welcome and can even bring the cat, but she's gonna ride it out. She's been through a few of these including Andrew, so I guess she knows what to expect.

Hoping for the best for all concerned.

See that St. John and St. Thomas may be in the path or at least are gonna get a close shave.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

For my friends and family in Puerto Rico, the slight shift to the north looks promising.

But I feel for friends we have made in St Maarten. They are right in the eye for the last broadcast I saw in TWC. Ouch.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Thanks! ...Wow... Perhaps I should consider taking take back some of the many, many awful things I've said about gophers over the years....





Ok... I've considered it ------> Nope! :p
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I can neither confirm nor deny I was wishing Irma luck. ;)
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

dxmnkd316 said:
How does mookie forecast? Tea leaves, chicken bones, or camel dung?
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look out the window :D

tomorrow is going to be 110 and sunny
friday will be 110 and sunny
saturday will be 110 and sunny
sunday will be 110 and sunny
monday will be 110 and sunny
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

mookie lived on virgin gorda for 6 months when he was young and adventurous. not gonna be pretty there as you don't get an appreciation for how exposed those places are until you are there.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Kepler said:
300 km/h (190 mph) winds.

Holy sh-t. :eek:

If you're scoring at home the record is 408 km/h (253 mph).
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Cat 5s are incredible. It's really hard to imagine an EF4 to EF5 tornado with impact the size of a GD hurricane center. I think of EF4s and EF5s as total destruction. I think of Cat 1 hurricanes as bad, but really not the worst considering winds are 75-100 mph. When you get the Cat 5, the energy is hard to even fathom.

Loss of structures, not just roofs.


ETA: Buried in the story is this snippet:
Rarer though is the strength of the hurricanes, with Harvey making landfall in the US as a category four.

There have never been two category four storms making landfall on the US mainland during the same season, since records began.
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Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

I've seen estimates that a cat 5 hitting NYC would do more structural damage than a 15kt nuke.

I've been in a cat 1 (Belle 1976) and I cannot conceive of winds twice as strong.
 
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Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Looking through photos from our St. John trip and comparing to current radar and the eye wall is currently about a mile in the background of all of our shots from Annaberg Sugar Plantation.

Over the island of Tortola.

Can't even imagine although I sorta can coz I can still picture that view in my mind's eye.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Looks like the folks in Savannah and Hilton Head and Charleston should be on the lookout.

I have 3 nephews in Charleston. They tell me it floods easily.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Gurtholfin said:
Good luck Wisko.

My sister is in Boca. I've told her she is welcome and can even bring the cat, but she's gonna ride it out. She's been through a few of these including Andrew, so I guess she knows what to expect.

Hoping for the best for all concerned.

See that St. John and St. Thomas may be in the path or at least are gonna get a close shave.
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Thanks Gurt, we'll be fine either here in place or getting out. Latest GFS run has Irma close or right on South beach and heading north. Hope your sis is secure and safe. Pucker factor is going up for Miami area. One good thing is that the East coast is less susceptible to inundation from storm surge. Less being a relative term --

South Carolina has just declared a state of emergency. New Euro is up. West of the GFS, hitting around the middle Keys and heading North. This morning's eastern trend doesn't seem to have survived the latest model run.

Have a few more shutters to put up.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Wisko McBadgerton said:
One good thing is that the East coast is less susceptible to inundation from storm surge.
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Is this because the FL / GA coast is a line so the waves likely hit obliquely while the gulf coast is an arc so the waves more likely hit directly? (If so then Savannah is f-cked.)
 
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