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2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Minnesota now controls its own destiny for the #1 seed
Click to expand...

At the same time, Wisconsin falls to #4, staying on the same side of the bracket as Minnesota.

Clarkson and BU sweep while UMD splits, so of course the 'Dogs flip both comparisons and move into a tie for #6. However, both BU and Clarkson have a significant RPI advantages against very tight other criteria so the committee might still take both.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (I am often wrong) but if the season ended today:

1 UM
2 BC
3 HU
4 UW
5 QU
6 BU
7 UMD
8 CHA

If RIT or SU wins the CHA, you would get

1 UM vs 7 UMD
2 BC vs 8 RIT/SU
3 HU vs 6 BU
4 QU vs 5 UW

If MU or PSU wins the CHA, you would get:

1 UM vs 8 MU/PSU
2 BC vs 6 BU
3 HU vs 5 QU
4 UW vs 7 UMD
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Eeyore said:
At the same time, Wisconsin falls to #4, staying on the same side of the bracket as Minnesota.

Clarkson and BU sweep while UMD splits, so of course the 'Dogs flip both comparisons and move into a tie for #6. However, both BU and Clarkson have a significant RPI advantages against very tight other criteria so the committee might still take both.
Click to expand...

Yep, Clarkson sweeping Dartmouth was a killer dropping Dartmouth as a TUC and causing Clarkson's TUC to go from 11-9-3 (.543) to 7-9-3 (.447) and they lost 2 TUC comparisons to Duluth (.458) and North Dakota (.523). Now if Duluth loses today their TUC% goes to 7-10-3 (.425) and they go back to losing the TUC Comparison to Clarkson. So now Clarkson rises to 7th and Duluth drops to 8th. GO BEMIDJI :) .
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

vicb said:
Yep, Clarkson sweeping Dartmouth was a killer dropping Dartmouth as a TUC and causing Clarkson's TUC to go from 11-9-3 (.543) to 7-9-3 (.447) and they lost 2 TUC comparisons to Duluth (.458) and North Dakota (.523). Now if Duluth loses today their TUC% goes to 7-10-3 (.425) and they go back to losing the TUC Comparison to Clarkson. So now Clarkson rises to 7th and Duluth drops to 8th. GO BEMIDJI :) .
Click to expand...
And right now North Dakota is kicking themselves for the losses to Vermont and Syracuse. They finished 1 1/2 games better than UMD in WCHA play and swept their first-round series, but are still in a "have to win to get in" situation.
 
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Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

What do we know for sure about the possible effects of the ECAC tourney results on Pairwise and NCAA tourney qualification, and what is still up in the air?

Must Cornell win the ECAC autobid to go to the NCAAs?
Must Clarkson do likewise, or might it slip in via Pairwise if it at least defeats Cornell in the semis while BU and UMD stumble?
Can Quinnipiac vault into a home ice seed if it wins out?
Can Harvard maintain a home ice seed even if it loses to Quinnipiac (there is currently an RPI gap of .0215 between them and Harvard already leads the comparison 2-0)?
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Blah blah blah, I know it's all based on math (yuck), but it just makes my brain want explode that UW beat and tied Clarkson, Clarkson wins 2 games against Dartmouth, Clarkson improving their record by winning actually hurts them and UW. It makes no sense. Winning has to be the trump card over all other factors.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Timothy A said:
Blah blah blah, I know it's all based on math (yuck), but it just makes my brain want explode that UW beat and tied Clarkson, Clarkson wins 2 games against Dartmouth, Clarkson improving their record by winning actually hurts them and UW. It makes no sense. Winning has to be the trump card over all other factors.
Click to expand...
Clarkson winning didn't hurt UW; Harvard sweeping a TUC while Wisconsin was playing SCSU (a non-factor in the TUC picture) caused that flip.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Watson Rink said:
What do we know for sure about the possible effects of the ECAC tourney results on Pairwise and NCAA tourney qualification, and what is still up in the air?

Must Cornell win the ECAC autobid to go to the NCAAs?
Must Clarkson do likewise, or might it slip in via Pairwise if it at least defeats Cornell in the semis while BU and UMD stumble?
Can Quinnipiac vault into a home ice seed if it wins out?
Can Harvard maintain a home ice seed even if it loses to Quinnipiac (there is currently an RPI gap of .0215 between them and Harvard already leads the comparison 2-0)?
Click to expand...

I would say the only way Cornell gets into the NC$$ Tourney is to win the ECAC's.
If Clarkson can stop the Saulnier-Fulton-Jenner line I think they can win their semi-final. That is all I can say.
I do not think Quinni can get into 3rd or 4th if they win out just looking at their current Pair Wise and comparing it to Wisc and Harv'
Again looking at the current PWR I do not think there is anyway for Harvard to fall to 5th if they lose to Quinni.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Alright guys, enough guessing. Time for some answers.

Here is the tournament predictor, at long long last, in development since last March, and it's finally ready for action.

I plugged in NU and UMD winning tonight but will correct if that changes.

This should be pretty self explanatory. It's an exact calculator -- Pairwise will match USCHO exactly once the games are complete.

Post any interesting observations you can find!

http://www.bcinterruption.com/2014/12/15/7398979/PairwisePredictor
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Thanks! If your creation is correct, then it looks like if everything else goes according to seed but Clarkson loses to Harvard, then UMD is in and Clarkson is out.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

/takes bow

Seriously I appreciate it, I don't think I've ever been so proud of something I've made.

That'll probably change if/when I ever have a kid, but for now anyway it's my magnum opus :D
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TonyTheTiger20 said:
/takes bow

Seriously I appreciate it, I don't think I've ever been so proud of something I've made.

That'll probably change if/when I ever have a kid, but for now anyway it's my magnum opus :D
Click to expand...

Nah... I've got three kids, and this spreadsheet is much harder to produce.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

What a wonderful thing to mess around with! Thanks!

Looks like Quinnipiac could come excruciatingly close to a home seed by winning the ECAC tourney but would still finish #5 and that Harvard would still host somebody....very likely Quinnipiac, which would be an interesting rematch in those circumstances (i.e. Q defeats H in the ECAC semis).

If Harvard defeats both Quinnipiac and Clarkson, you hope they could host BU rather than play Q for a fourth time after going 3-0 against them. (Harvard went 1-0-1 against BU).

If Harvard defeats Quinnipiac and Clarkson defeats Harvard, a Clarkson-Harvard rematch would be a chance for redemption for the Crimson but not for the Knights who would have already gone 2-0-1 against Harvard over the season.

Looking forward to people working out and posting the possible outcomes for their teams!
 
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Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Watson Rink said:
What a wonderful thing to mess around with! Thanks!

Looks like Quinnipiac could come excruciatingly close to a home seed by winning the ECAC tourney but would still finish #5 and that Harvard would still host somebody....very likely Quinnipiac, which would be an interesting rematch in those circumstances (i.e. Q defeats H in the ECAC semis).

If Harvard defeats both Quinnipiac and Clarkson, you hope they could host BU rather than play Q for a fourth time after going 3-0 against them. (Harvard went 1-0-1 against BU).

If Harvard defeats Quinnipiac and Clarkson defeats Harvard, a Clarkson-Harvard rematch would be a chance for redemption for the Crimson but not for the Knights who would have already gone 2-0-1 against Harvard over the season.

Looking forward to people working out and posting the possible outcomes for their teams!
Click to expand...

Some of this will depend on whether or not Clarkson gets in, who the CHA goes to, what BU does in the HE tournament, etc... . It's a little mind numbing but creates a lot of interest for fans of the respective teams. From a travel perspective, I can only see one of three possibilities for Harvard: BU, Clarkson and Quinnipiac.
 
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