2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

[Patman]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

In a sport where the most likely score is 3-2....

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

In a sport where the most likely score is 3-2....

It may be the most likely, but just under 89% of all games this past season ended with a different score.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

And as the scoring averages have declined, let me put out a point not supported by research but by observation. I think that the average margin of victory is less from '94/'95 to '15/'16 than in the period from '71/'72 to '93/'94. Making for a higher percentage of games that are competitive. Fewer laughers, more close games.

Comment?

Since I'm a stats person I compiled a composite schedule for the 1984-85 season. It's not complete, as I am missing 6 games played by Northern Arizona (I'm also missing dates for 7 U.S. International games, but I have the opponents and scores for those games), but I think those are the only games I'm missing. The landscape was very different then, as almost all games against all opponents were counted, including games vs Canadian schools, DII/DIII schools, NAIA schools, club teams and even foreign schools (UAA counted 5 games vs South Korean universities). I excluded the games vs club teams and foreign schools, leaving 840 games that I looked at. For the 1984-85 season the average goals per game by both teams was 8.707 and the average margin of victory was 3.017 goals. For the 1998-99 season the average goals per game by both teams was 6.436 and the average margin of victory was 2.432 goals. For the 2015-16 season the average goals per game by both teams was 5.590 and the average margin of victory was 2.140 goals.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

I've finished compiling a composite schedule for the 1975-76 season (which was easier than the one for the 1984-85 season). Here are the average margins of victory for the 1975-76, 1984-85, 1998-99 and 2015-16 seasons:
1975-76, 9.828 AGG, 3.272 AMV
1984-85, 8.707 AGG, 3.017 AMV
1998-99, 6.436 AGG, 2.432 AMV
2015-16, 5.590 AGG, 2.140 AMV

To try and standardize the results as much as possible I also look at only games between DI teams for each season:
1975-76, 9.448 AGG, 2.943 AMV
1984-85, 8.547 AGG, 2.951 AMV
1998-99, 6.374 AGG, 2.374 AMV
2015-16, 5.582 AGG, 2.136 AMV

While games have gotten slightly closer, dropping from an average difference of 3 goals to 2 goals, what has really changed is the 'average' game result. In 1975-76 it was 6.55 to 3.28 and last season it was 3.87 to 1.72. In looking at the actual game results the percentage of tied games has increased from 3.3% to 12.6% of all games, although some that is due to the overtime period being cut in half, while one goal games have increased from 25.2% to 30.5% of all games. However, the biggest change is games won by 5+ goals, which have decreased from 23.6% of all games in 1975-76 to 13.6% in 1998-99 to just 7.8% last season.

Sean

 

[joecct]

You're probably talking about Clarkson's Brian Shields... I saw him play RPI several times. The game was different then... the Clarksons, BUs, UNHs and Cornells who dominated the ECAC in the mid 70's were scoring machines. The Brian Shields, Jim Craigs, VanDerMarks (wish I could recall the first name of Cornell's top goalie) were few and far between. Only a few teams like Harvard played with a commitment to a relatively defensive style. (RPI was about 6th in the ECAC that year and probably averaged 5-5.5 goals a game.) ECAC hockey often was story of the 'haves and have nots.' Top 8 teams made the playoffs and generally the top 3 or 4 made it each year (most of the talented players gravitated there) ... with a scramble for the rest.

Standout defensemen were pretty rare. People often forget that Rod Langway played at UNH (for 2 years?). Goalies with gaudy stats just didn't exist in the 70's.

ECAC, CCHA teams played racehorse hockey back then. WCHA had lots of scoring and featured very physical play.

Yep. Brown's Kevin McCabe should have been the AA goalie.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

I've finished compiling a composite schedule for the 1975-76 season (which was easier than the one for the 1984-85 season). Here are the average margins of victory for the 1975-76, 1984-85, 1998-99 and 2015-16 seasons:
1975-76, 9.828 AGG, 3.272 AMV
1984-85, 8.707 AGG, 3.017 AMV
1998-99, 6.436 AGG, 2.432 AMV
2015-16, 5.590 AGG, 2.140 AMV

To try and standardize the results as much as possible I also look at only games between DI teams for each season:
1975-76, 9.448 AGG, 2.943 AMV
1984-85, 8.547 AGG, 2.951 AMV
1998-99, 6.374 AGG, 2.374 AMV
2015-16, 5.582 AGG, 2.136 AMV

While games have gotten slightly closer, dropping from an average difference of 3 goals to 2 goals, what has really changed is the 'average' game result. In 1975-76 it was 6.55 to 3.28 and last season it was 3.87 to 1.72. In looking at the actual game results the percentage of tied games has increased from 3.3% to 12.6% of all games, although some that is due to the overtime period being cut in half, while one goal games have increased from 25.2% to 30.5% of all games. However, the biggest change is games won by 5+ goals, which have decreased from 23.6% of all games in 1975-76 to 13.6% in 1998-99 to just 7.8% last season.

Sean

Thanks for your work, Sean — I know that compiling this stuff is painstaking. Have you run anything about modes and medians, quartiles, etc.?

GFM

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Thanks for your work, Sean — I know that compiling this stuff is painstaking. Have you run anything about modes and medians, quartiles, etc.?

GFM

I'm still primarily working on compiling composite schedules and results for seasons with information available online, but I compiled the 1984-85 and 1975-76 season schedules and results because of comments about scoring and goaltending in the seventies and eighties. I really haven't considered what can be done with the information once I have compiled it (other than for the project I'm working on).

Sean

 

[fr. joe]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Yep. Brown's Kevin McCabe should have been the AA goalie.

Those 75/76, 76/77 Brown teams were very solid... standouts during a soft period in B's history. Kevin McCabe and solid D David Given... McIntosh and Gilligan up front. Thanks for refreshing the memory on a very good team that could play with the best of them any given night.

 

[fr. joe]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

I've finished compiling a composite schedule for the 1975-76 season (which was easier than the one for the 1984-85 season). Here are the average margins of victory for the 1975-76, 1984-85, 1998-99 and 2015-16 seasons...

While games have gotten slightly closer, dropping from an average difference of 3 goals to 2 goals, what has really changed is the 'average' game result. In 1975-76 it was 6.55 to 3.28 and last season it was 3.87 to 1.72. In looking at the actual game results the percentage of tied games has increased from 3.3% to 12.6% of all games, although some that is due to the overtime period being cut in half, while one goal games have increased from 25.2% to 30.5% of all games. However, the biggest change is games won by 5+ goals, which have decreased from 23.6% of all games in 1975-76 to 13.6% in 1998-99 to just 7.8% last season.

Sean

Thanks, Sean. The general direction of the conversation on this thread (and our recollections) has been backed up by your analysis. Lower scoring overall, closer margins...

Your observation on the significantly smaller number of 5+ goal margin victories got me thinking...
Several of us have written about equipment changes, better youth coaching, more emphasis on 'both ends of the ice,'... those are important but let me put out something else. There are more good players now and that the 'talent level' is more evenly distributed among the teams.

It seems to me that there are more 'competitive teams' out there. Think of the number of schools winning their first NCAA title in the last 10 years. (Traditional powers aren't getting all the top players anymore.) There been a leveling in the talent between the teams... and that will lead to closer results over time and, of course, fewer blowouts.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Thanks, Sean. The general direction of the conversation on this thread (and our recollections) has been backed up by your analysis. Lower scoring overall, closer margins...

Your observation on the significantly smaller number of 5+ goal margin victories got me thinking...
Several of us have written about equipment changes, better youth coaching, more emphasis on 'both ends of the ice,'... those are important but let me put out something else. There are more good players now and that the 'talent level' is more evenly distributed among the teams.

It seems to me that there are more 'competitive teams' out there. Think of the number of schools winning their first NCAA title in the last 10 years. (Traditional powers aren't getting all the top players anymore.) There been a leveling in the talent between the teams... and that will lead to closer results over time and, of course, fewer blowouts.

I agree that there is a much larger talent pool now than there was in the seventies and I think it is due to the growth of the sport at all levels. The NHL went from 6 teams in 1966-67 to 18 in 1975-6, plus 14 WHA teams and at that time there was not enough talent, not to mention some poor decisions about where to locate teams, just a few years later 10 of the WHA and one NHL team were gone. Still, those years exposed many more people to hockey and with the slow, but sustainable growth of the NHL since then there has been the gradual increase in youth hockey around the U.S. It has also been reflected at the collegiate level as in 1975-76 there were effectively 32 DI programs (Air Force and Army were playing mostly DII/DIII teams) and now, even with the schools that dropped hockey, there are 60 DI programs. Even at the DII level there are about 20 more programs then there were in 1975-76 (I don't have an exact count of DII/DIII teams from then).

Sean