Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.
Thanks for the work you put into this! I was discouraged with how low scoring I felt WCHA games were this year, so I decided to compare our conference numbers against your totals and see if we actually were that dull. In 153 WCHA conference matchups (I included conference tournament games), there were 43 games where no one scored 3 goals, versus 110 where at least one team did. This is 28.1% of games of less than 3 versus your figure of 19.6% across college hockey, a number which drops to 18.3% when you remove the WCHA games. That's a pretty big disparity. In addition, 3 goals or more brought a winning percentage of 84.6% in conference play, versus 78.6% across NCAA play. Although not as statistically significant as the other gap, it still means 3 is more than enough in the WCHA. The question is, will the WCHA take steps to address the lack of scoring, or just say, "We have great goaltenders and coaches"? Because I have a hard time believing our goaltenders and coaches are that much better than those in other leagues.
I just knew someone would be interested in conference stats.
Because of that my workbook tracks all conference/non-conference/conference tournament/NCAA tournament games. However, in looking at such small subsets of data anomalies can and do appear (see below), so I have been researching past seasons as well. I have put a put a
workbook on Google Docs with conference and overall data for the past three seasons individually and combined (2013-16).
I’m not looking at average scoring per game, but as I have goal data for every game I added goal information to the workbook I put online. As can be seen the overall goals per game average dipped slightly in 2014-15 but is almost the same this past season as in 2013-14. However, it has dropped in each of the past two seasons in the WCHA, and is down a full half-goal per game by both teams. The ECAC’s three season average is a tick lower than the WCHA’s, but its average went up this past season. Atlantic Hockey’s goal scoring decreased almost as much (0.48) as the WCHA over the past two seasons, but they had a higher average to start. Hockey East’s average has gone up, as has that for non-conference games, but nothing like the B1G, which has seen goal scoring increase close to 2 goals (1.77) per game for both teams. If you like goal scoring the B1G was the league to watch this past season and if you like low scoring games the WCHA was the league to watch this past season.
As can be seen on the 2015-16 sheet the ECAC edged out the WCHA for highest percentage of games with less than 3 goals by either team (42 of 152 vs. 42 of 153). The B1G, with the smallest number of league games by 43, had the lowest percentage of games under 3 goals (5 of 65, just 7.7%). Non-conference games had the second lowest percentage at 14.6% (47 of 321 games), while the NCHC was the only other conference to have less than 20% of league games with less than 3 goals by either team. On the flip-side, with just 23 games out of 153 (15.0%) in which both teams scored 3 goals, the WCHA had the lowest percentage by far among the leagues in that category.
However, in 2013-14 the B1G had the highest percentage of games with less than 3 goals by either team (21 of 65, 32.3% of all games) and the WCHA had 17.8% of games (37 of 152) with less than 3 goals by either team, slightly less than the overall average for that season. And for the 2014-15 season the WCHA had just 18 of 151 games (11.9%) in which both teams scored at least 3 goals. That same season the ECAC had 21 of 154 games (13.6%) in which both teams scored 3 goals and also had 44 of 154 games (28.6%) in which neither scored three goals. As I mentioned before, working with such small data sets (B1G games are less than 6% of all games played in 2015-16, Atlantic Hockey games are less than 16% and the other 4 leagues are each less than 14%) a few games can make a difference.
In regards to winning when being the first to score 3 goals, Atlantic Hockey teams had an abnormally good record, with a 95.0% winning percentage, but it only brought their three season average up to 88.1%. The NCHC likewise had an excellent record, winning 95.6% of such games, but unlike the AH, they have the best three season average at 92.2%. The WCHA edges out Hockey East for the second best conference record over the past three seasons at 91.5%, although non-conference games are slightly higher as 91.7%. The WCHA would likely have a higher average, if not for decreased scoring leading to 10 more games (from 32 to 42) in which neither team scored 3 goals this past season. The only other conference to see an increase in such games was the NCHC, which went from 16 to 18.
Over the past three seasons the average winning percentage for a team that scores 3 goals first is a solid 90.5%. However, when both teams score at least 3 goals the winning percentage drops to just 66.6%, with 63.1% of those winning teams (274 of 434) never losing the lead. That means teams not scoring 3 goals first actually have a winning record (181-160-146, 52.2%) if they are able to tie up the game. Still, with only one team scoring three or more goals in 1923 of 3348 games (57.4%) the past three seasons getting that 3rd goal first appears does appear to be the best path to winning the game.
Sean
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