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2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

F

Freddie

Whipping Dead Horses Since 1955
I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

I counted shoot-outs and those silly 3-3 OTs at ties.

Teams that score ZERO goals in a game have a record of 0-115-8 Winning Percentage .0325
Teams that score ONE goal are 16-174-68 (.1938)
Teams that score TWO goals are 60-200-50 (.2742)
Teams that score THREE goals are 158-90-54 (.6126)
Teams that score FOUR goals are 145-32-16 (.7927)
Teams that score FIVE goals are 122-4-12 (.9275)
Teams that score SIX goals are 68-2-4 (.9459)
Teams that score SEVEN goals are 34-1-0 (.9714)
Teams that score EIGHT goals are 11-0-0 (1.000)
Teams that score NINE goals are 3-0-0 (1.000)
Nobody has scored exactly TEN.
Team that scores ELEVEN goals is 1-0-0 (1.000)

The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
 
Last edited:
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

The ELEVEN goal game was St Cloud over Western Michigan 11-2 on Nov 14.
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

In 46 games:
- A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
- In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
- So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Nick Papagiorgio said:
Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

In 46 games:
- A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
- In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
- So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
Click to expand...
Nick,

How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

Sean
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Freddie said:
I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

...

The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
Click to expand...
With scoring down from the past that makes sense, but as you point out the divide between 2 and 3 goals is striking. Have you looked at past seasons, say maybe back in 1990-91, or even 2000-01? It would be interesting to see what the break point was for those, or other seasons.

Your post made me interested in seeing how BU has done historically so I looked at what their and their opponents' all-time records were. It appears that historically the break point for BU has been 4 goals:

goals scored - record - winning percentage
0 - 0-72-3 - 0.020
1 - 16-185-17 - 0.112
2 - 69-257-39 - 0.242
3 - 164-169-45 - 0.493
4 - 262-103-33 - 0.700
5 - 293-51-14 - 0.838
6 - 232-22-4 - 0.907
7 - 164-4-4 - 0.965
8 - 108-1-0 - 0.991
9 - 75-1-0 - 0.987
10+ - 123-0-0 - 1.000

However, BU's opponents have done worse, and their break point has been 5 goals:

goals scored - record - winning percentage
0 - 0-157-3 - 0.009
1 - 9-329-17 - 0.049
2 - 49-398-39 - 0.141
3 - 155-312-45 - 0.347
4 - 162-188-33 - 0.466
5 - 172-83-14 - 0.665
6 - 122-30-4 - 0.795
7 - 83-10-4 - 0.876
8 - 54-2-0 - 0.964
9 - 24-0-0 - 1.000
10+ - 34-0-0 - 1.000

Without doing more research to I don't think too much can be made of the data. However, it appears to me that the better teams will have better records no matter how many goals they score, as they will more often than not give up fewer goals.

Sean
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Nick Papagiorgio said:
Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

In 46 games:
- A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
- In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
- So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
Click to expand...
I have looked at BU's performance in the NCAA's since the tournament began. BU has played 75 NCAA games, 8 which were consolations games. Leaving out those games there are 67 games:
- only twice did neither team score three goals
- in the remaining 65 games 34 times one of the teams failed to score three goals
- in the remaining 31 games the first team to score the third goal has a record of 23-8, a 74.2% winning percentage
- in the 65 games with a team scoring 3 or more goals the first team to score the third goal has a record of 57-8, an 87.7% winning percentage

Sean
 
Last edited:
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Nick Papagiorgio said:
Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

In 46 games:
- A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
- In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
- So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
Click to expand...

Sean Pickett said:
Nick,

How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

Sean
Click to expand...

Nick Papagiorgio said:
Hmmm. I'll have to consult with my database!
Click to expand...
Nevermind, I looked myself. Of the 39 games both teams scored three or more goals in ten of them. So, since only 2 lost, the record is 8-2, an 80% winning percentage.

Sean
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
1. Hold them to 2 or less
or
2. Score at least 3 goals.
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

joecct said:
Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
1. Hold them to 2 or less
or
2. Score at least 3 goals.
Click to expand...

2b is a lot more entertaining, but coaches view 2a as easier to control and achieve, so guess which one they do
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)
 
Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Freddie said:
Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing this Freddie.

Sean
 
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