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2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

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Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

I'm curious how many Top 25 wins the SEC has outside their conference compared with the Pac, X, XII...
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Week 10 Pick 'Em Games

Thursday October 30

2 Florida State at 25 Louisville

Saturday November 1

Northwestern at Iowa
24 Duke at Pittsburgh
Washington at Colorado
7 TCU at 20 West Virginia
Kentucky at Missouri
3 Auburn at 4 Ole Miss
Stanford at 5 Oregon
12 Arizona at 22 UCLA
17 Utah at 14 Arizona State
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Thursday October 30

2 Florida State at 25 Louisville

Saturday November 1

Northwestern at Iowa
24 Duke at Pittsburgh
Washington at Colorado
7 TCU at 20 West Virginia
Kentucky at Missouri
3 Auburn at 4 Ole Miss
Stanford at 5 Oregon
12 Arizona at 22 UCLA
17 Utah at 14 Arizona State
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Week 10 Pick 'Em Games

Thursday October 30

2 Florida State at 25 Louisville

Saturday November 1

Northwestern at Iowa
24 Duke at Pittsburgh
Washington at Colorado
7 TCU at 20 West Virginia
Kentucky at Missouri
3 Auburn at 4 Ole Miss
Stanford at 5 Oregon
12 Arizona at 22 UCLA
17 Utah at 14 Arizona State
...
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Late notice on the picks but I'm confident the the other two would've taken FSU
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Last year was apparently too easy. Everything has to be dramatic this year.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Late notice on the picks but I'm confident the the other two would've taken FSU

Well, I would gladly take the free win, but I'll be honest and say I would've gone with Louisville.

Northwestern at Iowa
24 Duke at Pittsburgh
Washington at Colorado
7 TCU at 20 West Virginia
Kentucky at Missouri
3 Auburn at 4 Ole Miss
Stanford at 5 Oregon
12 Arizona at 22 UCLA
17 Utah at 14 Arizona State
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Continuing from my previous post where I had:
Thursday
Fsu

The others I need to think about



Thursday October 30

2 Florida State at 25 Louisville

Saturday November 1

Northwestern at Iowa
24 Duke at Pittsburgh
Washington at Colorado
7 TCU at 20 West Virginia
Kentucky at Missouri
3 Auburn at 4 Ole Miss
Stanford at 5 Oregon
12 Arizona at 22 UCLA
17 Utah at 14 Arizona State[/QUOTE]
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

FSU is going to slip up at some point this season. I know the schedule that's left isn't good, but there's no way they can keep cutting it close like they are every game.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

FSU is going to slip up at some point this season. I know the schedule that's left isn't good, but there's no way they can keep cutting it close like they are every game.

The thing is, that was probably the best team that FSU is going to play on the way in. The rest of their schedule is...

vs Virginia (4-4)
@ Miami (5-3)
vs Boston College (5-3)
vs Florida (3-3)
ACC Championship Game (probably against Duke (6-1))

FSU should have no issues at home against Virginia or Boston College. Florida and Miami are rivalry games, so anything is possible there. However, FSU will also likely be just as up for those rivalries, so it is difficult for me to see them ****ting the bed, especially at home against Florida if they have a shot at another perfect regular season.

That leaves the ACC Title game, and if the matchup is against Duke, then I really like FSU's chances of going undefeated. Duke just isn't the type of team to push FSU. If we look at the Seminole's close games (Clemson, Notre Dame, and Louisville), all of those teams play very good defense (and Winston was obviously out for the Clemson game). Duke might have good defensive numbers, but look at the competition. Plus, throw in the fact that FSU would have a shot at the playoffs, and I think FSU would cruise there.

Ultimately, I don't think they'll play another really close game the rest of the way until the playoff. Of course, I also don't think they will repeat either...at least I hope not.

It would be interesting though to see how far FSU would fall with a loss. My guess is they would drop to about 6 or 7. The rankings committee seems significantly more concerned with who you have beaten rather than who you lost to (see MSU and Notre Dame), and Florida State would still have wins over Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Louisville. Those are better than either TCU (although if TCU wins out, that could change) or Michigan State. Throw in that the SEC West is going to beat up on each other, and it is entirely feasible for FSU to lose a game, and still make the playoff.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

At the same time though, there isn't much precedence about who you lose to affecting your spot. Currently the "worst" loss in the Top Ten is Ole Miss vs LSU, who is ranked 19. There isn't a team that's gotten beat by a middle of the road team in contention for anything right now.

I'll also be interested to see what happens with Ole Miss-Auburn. ESPN continues to claim this is a play-in game, meaning the loser will be knocked out of contention. In past years, this would've been the case. There have generally been between 4-6 zero or one loss teams from Power 5 conferences and, except for last year, all get ranked ahead of two loss teams.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

At the same time though, there isn't much precedence about who you lose to affecting your spot. Currently the "worst" loss in the Top Ten is Ole Miss vs LSU, who is ranked 19. There isn't a team that's gotten beat by a middle of the road team in contention for anything right now.

I'll also be interested to see what happens with Ole Miss-Auburn. ESPN continues to claim this is a play-in game, meaning the loser will be knocked out of contention. In past years, this would've been the case. There have generally been between 4-6 zero or one loss teams from Power 5 conferences and, except for last year, all get ranked ahead of two loss teams.

It seems pretty clear from the rankings that who you beat is given significantly more weight than who beat you. Look at the comparison between Notre Dame and Michigan State. The Irish lost a controversial game on the road against the undefeated defending national champions, while Michigan State lost to Oregon (who lost to Arizona at home). Certainly, the Irish have a significantly better loss. On the flip side, the two have extremely close credentials in terms of victories (MSU has basically only beaten Nebraska at home (by five), and the Irish have basically only beaten Stanford at home (by three)). Nebraska is seen as the better team at the moment, so Michigan State gets ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

Ultimately, I don't think either MSU or Notre Dame get in the playoff because of how weak their schedules are. I think it winds up with:

SEC Champion
Florida State
Oregon/TCU
1-loss SEC team

I generally agree that a 2-loss SEC team is probably out, unless it plays down to a scenario where say Alabama wins the rest of their regular season games (LSU, Miss St., and Auburn), but then falls to Georgia in the SEC Championship game (assuming Georgia also wins out - not too difficult). I think Georgia would get one of the spots as a 1-loss SEC Champion, but then what about a 2-loss Alabama? If Oregon and TCU both win out, then I think Alabama gets left in the cold, but I think a 2-loss Alabama might get the nod over a 1-loss Michigan State or Notre Dame.

At the end of the day, I'm glad there is a playoff, but I really wish they simplified it. It should be 8 teams: the 5 winners of the power 5 conferences, and then three at-large teams from the committee.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

The thing is, that was probably the best team that FSU is going to play on the way in. The rest of their schedule is...

vs Virginia (4-4)
@ Miami (5-3)
vs Boston College (5-3)
vs Florida (3-3)
ACC Championship Game (probably against Duke (6-1))

FSU should have no issues at home against Virginia or Boston College. Florida and Miami are rivalry games, so anything is possible there. However, FSU will also likely be just as up for those rivalries, so it is difficult for me to see them ****ting the bed, especially at home against Florida if they have a shot at another perfect regular season.

That leaves the ACC Title game, and if the matchup is against Duke, then I really like FSU's chances of going undefeated. Duke just isn't the type of team to push FSU. If we look at the Seminole's close games (Clemson, Notre Dame, and Louisville), all of those teams play very good defense (and Winston was obviously out for the Clemson game). Duke might have good defensive numbers, but look at the competition. Plus, throw in the fact that FSU would have a shot at the playoffs, and I think FSU would cruise there.

Ultimately, I don't think they'll play another really close game the rest of the way until the playoff. Of course, I also don't think they will repeat either...at least I hope not.

It would be interesting though to see how far FSU would fall with a loss. My guess is they would drop to about 6 or 7. The rankings committee seems significantly more concerned with who you have beaten rather than who you lost to (see MSU and Notre Dame), and Florida State would still have wins over Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Louisville. Those are better than either TCU (although if TCU wins out, that could change) or Michigan State. Throw in that the SEC West is going to beat up on each other, and it is entirely feasible for FSU to lose a game, and still make the playoff.

Miami is also more of a neutral field (60/40 or so). They had 2 scholarship linebackers remaining after Thomas was nicked up in the 1st half. 10 days off will be very helpful.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Miami is also more of a neutral field (60/40 or so). They had 2 scholarship linebackers remaining after Thomas was nicked up in the 1st half. 10 days off will be very helpful.

Yeah, I just don't see FSU dropping the ball in any of the remaining games. Don't get me wrong, I am rooting for them to lose two of their remaining three ACC games...but I just don't see it happening. They are good enough to play a C+ game and beat any of the remaining competition playing an A game (with perhaps the slight exception of Florida...although the last time the Gators played their A game, Tim Tebow was QB).
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Michigan AD Dave Brandon will resign at a 1:30 press conference, per the Detroit News.
 
Re: 2014-2015 College Football Thread: A New Era Begins..

Michigan AD Dave Brandon will resign at a 1:30 press conference, per the Detroit News.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Will "resign" in the same way Lloyd Carr "retired." But it was needed after the emails telling the guy to choose a new team were confirmed. At least we'll always have the memories. My personal favorite is the sky writing over East Lansing.
 
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