Re: 2014-15 College Football Part II: SEC vs World
Playoff:
1. Florida State vs 4. Stanford
2. South Carolina vs. 3. Michigan State
Final: Stanford vs Michigan State
There's still like a 1% chance MSU makes it, so I won't cross them out just yet, but man did I do terrible this year.
What's the scenario where Michigan State makes it?
There is no way they jump Alabama, so they are better off with Alabama winning to eliminate any sentiment that Missouri might jump over MSU. So we have Alabama at #1.
There is no way that Michigan State jumps the winner of the Pac 12 Title game, and there is a strong possibility that if Oregon lost they would still be ahead of MSU, so probably best if Oregon wins. So we have Oregon at #2.
After that, someone out of TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State will win (or be co-champs) of the Big 12. If TCU and Baylor both lose, Kansas State would be Big 12 champs, and would jump MSU. If either Baylor or TCU win, they will be ahead of MSU. It is probably best for any slim hopes for Michigan State that Baylor wins convincingly over Kansas State, and TCU gets beat. In that scenario, we have Baylor at either #3 or #4.
So that leaves the last spot. Obviously, Florida State and Ohio State would have to lose to make room for any possible hope that Michigan State might have. The problem is, the committee is required to take conference champions unless a team is unequivocally a top 4 team in the country (despite not winning their conference). As a result, in this scenario, I think the final spot would go to Georgia Tech.
I honestly don't see any route for Michigan State to reach the top 4, but maybe someone else has found a way that I am overlooking?